市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1542970
全球小型模組化反應器市場 - 2024-2031Global Small Modular Reactor Market - 2024-2031 |
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報告概述
2023年,全球小型模組化反應器市場規模為57.2億美元,預計2031年將達到64.8億美元,在預測期內(2024-2031年)複合年成長率為1.6%。
國際原子能總署 (IAEA) 解釋稱,小型發電量為 300 MWe 以下,中發電量高達 700 MWe,其中包括幾個二十世紀的活躍機組。國際原子能總署(IAEA)稱之為中小型反應器(SMR)。然而,「SMR」最常被用作小型模組化反應器的縮寫,這是一種為串行建造而建造的核反應堆,用於組成大型核電站。
對於 15 MWe 以下的機組,人們提出了一種稱為 vSMR 的小型反應器子類型,特別是針對農村人口。小型模組化反應器 (SMR) 是採用模組化技術建造的輸出功率為 300 MWe 或以下的核反應堆,並在模組工廠中建造,以實現節省成本和快速建造時間。
世界核能協會的定義是基於國際原子能總署和美國核能研究所的定義。壓水爐可能配有內置蒸汽發生器,這需要更大的反應器壓力容器,限制了從工廠到現場的運輸。因此,許多大型壓水堆都使用外部蒸汽發生器,例如勞斯萊斯英國 SMR。
核電的靈活性和可靠性以及能源脫碳的淨零目標將推動市場發展。然而,對小型模組化反應器部署的嚴格規定預計將阻礙市場成長。
核電的靈活性和可靠性
核能的適應性可能使過渡到更清潔的地球和更強大的全球經濟成為可能。近幾十年來,清潔能源經歷了顯著的創新和成本降低。近十年來,太陽能光電、風電、水力、可調度地熱能(深層和淺層)、生質能、聚光太陽能和碳捕獲化石能源都取得了重大技術和經濟進步。
核能具有與各種其他能源協同結合的潛力,形成的綜合系統大於其各個部分的總和。根據國際原子能總署 2019 年 10 月參加氣候變遷和核電作用國際會議的成員國的說法,小型模組反應器可能是取代老化化石燃料發電廠的最有效的無二氧化碳電力來源。可能是取代老化的化石燃料發電廠的最有效的無二氧化碳電力來源。
取代舊的化石燃料發電廠的能力以及混合核能和可再生能源等替代能源的協同混合能源系統的潛力正在推動此類反應器的發展。隨著各大洲間歇性可再生能源比例的成長,中小型反應器是一種很有前景的替代方案,可與可再生能源結合提供基本負載和靈活營運,以確保無碳能源系統的供應安全。
當中小型反應器和再生能源結合成單一能源系統並透過智慧電網連接時,中小型反應器可以高容量運行,同時滿足生產率靈活性的需求,並創造能源、輔助服務和低碳副產品。 SMR 可以利用風能、太陽能、波浪能和潮汐能等可變能源來緩解日常和季節性波動。
能源脫碳的淨零目標
隨著2015 年《巴黎協定》的通過,全球將被要求利用所有低碳能源來管理溫室氣體(GHG) 排放,並將全球平均地表溫度升高控制在2°C 以下。 ,核能電力、水力發電和風能是每單位發電量溫室氣體排放量最低的能源之一,包括建設、運作、退役和廢棄物處理。
在運作過程中,基於SMR的核電廠基本上不排放溫室氣體或空氣污染物,在整個生命週期中排放量非常少。脫碳措施可能有助於 SMR 的成長。例如,就反應器容量而言,中小型反應器可能非常適合取代電力產業退役的燃煤發電廠的一小部分。
SMR 還可以幫助需要輸出溫度在攝氏 80 至 200 度之間的其他能源部門脫碳,例如區域供暖和製程供熱。使用輕水的小型模組化反應器可用於區域加熱。例如,芬蘭 VTT 技術研究中心於 2020 年 2 月啟動了一個項目,生產用於區域供熱應用的 SMR,以實現供熱行業脫碳。
小型模組化反應器部署規定
SMR 的主要監管問題是應急計畫區 (EPZ) 規模的縮小。根據IEAE的說法,出口加工區是一個根據環境監測資料和設施狀況準備迅速採取緊急保護行動以避免國際標準規定劑量的區域。據美國核子管理委員會 (NRC) 稱,該廠址周圍有兩個出口加工區。
對於任何核設施,第一個區域被稱為羽流暴露路徑,旨在最大限度地減少或減少工廠放射性物質潛在暴露的劑量,半徑通常約為 10 英里(16.1 公里)。攝入暴露途徑距離任何核設施約 50 英里(80.5 公里),旨在減少或避免因攝入受放射性污染物污染的食物而受到的暴露。
因此,每個緊急計畫區的規模和結構是根據各種標準確定的,包括核設施的運作特徵、核電廠廠址的地理特徵以及核電廠周圍的人口稠密地區。根據國際原子能總署的說法,對於熱功率輸出在 100 至 1,000 MWth 之間的反應堆,出口區半徑優選為 5-25 公里,以避免發生事故時對人口造成輻射。
細分市場分析
按應用,小型模組化反應器市場分為多模組電站和單模組電站。
易於為小型模組化反應器中的附加模組融資
SMR 可以採用可擴展的多模組設計,為電網運作提供更大的靈活性,允許再生能源併網,並幫助取代老化的核電廠和燃煤電廠。新中小型反應器融資的便利性以及大量生產的經濟性正在推動該領域的成長。
多模組發電廠還可以透過允許交錯加油和逐台維護來幫助避免長期停電。多模式結構還提供了更好的電網靈活性,允許再生能源併網,並促進現有核電設施的更新和燃煤機組的退役。此外,具有多模式部署的SMR工廠有助於透過最大限度地減少前期支出來降低財務成本。因此,電力公司正在大量實施多模式 SMR,這可能會帶來強勁的細分市場成長。
市場地域佔有率
亞太國家經濟快速成長
從地理上看,由於中國和印度等國家對 SMR 部署的投資增加,亞太地區預計將主導全球小型模組化設備產業,佔據主要收入佔有率。該國最近的經濟擴張導致能源需求迅速增加。能源公司正在尋找新的電力解決方案來滿足不斷成長的電力需求。因此,該地區對創新微型模組化設備的需求可能會急劇增加。
此外,中國有意鼓勵發展第三代沿海核電設施和小型模組堆以及海上浮動核反應器。同時,日本政府實施了多項立法改革,並採取措施加速能源產業脫碳。例如,日本政府於 2020 年 10 月宣布了到 2050 年將溫室氣體排放 (GHG) 削減至零的雄心勃勃的目標,使該國走上成為碳中和社會的軌道。該方法對於幫助日本實現這一崇高目標至關重要。預計這種策略將有助於小型模組化設備領域的採用。
此外,該地區擁有大量市場供應商,擁有龐大的業務和客戶群,從而使此類解決方案的可用性更高。例如,2021年7月,中國開始商業化興建陸上核電廠,採用小型模組化反應器「玲龍一號」。該策略也導致該地區大力採用小型模組化反應器。
市場競爭格局
為了鞏固自己的地位,休閒划船市場參與者正在採取各種策略,例如併購、銷售通路開發和產品創新。全球小型模組化反應器市場主要公司包括西屋電氣、Nuscale Power、Terrestrial Energy、Moltex Energy、X-Energy、Holtec International、General Atomics、Arc Clean Energy、Rolls-Royce 和 Lead-Cold Reactors。
COVID-19大流行影響了多家企業的成長。企業和政府為阻止病毒傳播所做的努力導致發電需求大幅迅速下降。由於大規模停工和全球貿易中斷,對電力系統的需求下降。
疫情減緩了小型模組化反應器技術的投資,並有可能扼殺該行業商業化的進展。短期內,鈾供應方面受到的影響最大,因為一些礦場和核燃料循環設施因健康問題而關閉。
哈薩克、加拿大和奈米比亞等幾個重要的鈾礦開採國都進行了削減,這些國家生產了世界近三分之二的鈾。工人的健康狀況導致常規核電設施長期停電。在預測期內,小型模組化反應器設計、許可和建造的延遲以及電力需求的下降可能會對SMR的發展產生負面影響。
俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭影響
由於引入了許多地緣政治不確定性,俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的戰爭對小型模組化反應器(SMR)市場產生了重大影響。衝突極大影響了全球供應鏈,導致SMR建造所需的重要原物料和零件價格上漲。近期的不穩定局勢導致專案延誤,並增加了投資者的財務風險,從而降低了市場的短期吸引力。此外,俄羅斯實體與全球合作夥伴之間的關係受到國際制裁和貿易限制的不利影響,這使得市場格局更加複雜。
另一方面,戰爭實際上引發了人們對能源安全和多樣化的更多興趣。這可能會在未來使 SMR 市場受益。如今,許多國家正在尋找方法來減少對不可預測能源的依賴。因此,他們正在考慮將小型模組化反應器 (SMR) 作為可靠且環保的替代方案。焦點的轉變可能會導致更多人想要 SMR。這將導致更多的資金投入和該行業的更多發展。由於持續的地緣政治緊張局勢,各國正在尋求提高其能源彈性。
全球小型模組化反應器市場報告將提供大約的資訊。 77 個市場資料表、72 張圖表、221 頁。
2024 年目標受眾
Report Overview
The Global Small Modular Reactor Market size was worth US$ 5.72 billion in 2023 and is estimated to reach US$ 6.48 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 1.6% during the forecast period (2024-2031).
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) explains small as less than 300 MWe and medium as up to 700 MWe, including several active units from the twentieth century. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has dubbed small and medium reactors (SMRs). However, 'SMR' is most generally used as an acronym for the small modular reactor,' a nuclear reactor built for serial building and utilized to make up a big nuclear power plant.
For units under 15 MWe, a subtype of very small reactors called vSMRs has been proposed, especially for rural populations. Small modular reactors (SMRs) are nuclear reactors with a power output of 300 MWe or less constructed with modular technology and built in a module factory to achieve cost savings and fast building timeframes.
The World Nuclear Association's definition is based on the IAEA and U.S. Nuclear Energy Institute's definitions. PWRs may feature built-in steam generators, which necessitate a larger reactor pressure vessel, limiting transportation from factory to site. As a result, external steam generators are used in many larger PWRs, such as the Rolls-Royce UK SMR.
The market will be boosted by the flexibility and reliability of nuclear power and net-zero goals of decarbonization of energy. However, the stringent regulations on the deployment of small modular reactors are expected to hinder market growth.
Flexibility and reliability of nuclear power
Nuclear energy's adaptability may make it possible to transition to a cleaner planet and a stronger global economy. Clean energy sources have undergone remarkable innovation and cost reductions in recent decades. In the recent decade, solar photovoltaic, wind power, hydropower, dispatchable geothermal (both deep and shallow), biomass, concentrated solar power and fossil energy with carbon capture have made significant technological and economic progress.
Nuclear energy has the potential to be synergistically combined with a variety of other energy sources, resulting in integrated systems that are more than the sum of their parts. Small Module Reactors could be the most effective source of CO2-free electricity to supersede aging fossil fuel-powered plants, according to the participating member states at the International Conference on Climate Change and the Role of Nuclear Power, the IAEA in October 2019. With an output of 300 MWe, SMRs could be the most effective source of CO2-free electricity to supersede aging fossil fuel-powered plants.
The capacity to replace old fossil fuel-fired power plants and the potential for synergetic hybrid energy systems that mix nuclear and alternative energy sources, such as renewables, are pushing the development of such reactors. SMRs are a promising alternative for providing baseload and flexible operations in conjunction with renewables to assure supply security with carbon-free energy systems as the percentage of intermittent renewable energy grows on all continents.
SMRs can run at high capacity while satisfying the demand for production rate flexibility and creating energy, ancillary services and low-carbon co-products when SMRs and renewable energy are combined into a single energy system and connected through smart grids. SMRs can mitigate daily and seasonal oscillations with variable energy sources such as wind, solar, wave and tidal energy.
Net-zero goals of decarbonization of energy
With the passage of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the globe will be required to harness all low-carbon energy sources to manage greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and keep global mean surface temperature increase below 2° C. On a life cycle basis, nuclear power, hydropower and wind energy deliver one of the lowest GHG emissions per unit of electricity generated, including construction, operation, decommissioning and waste disposal.
During operation, SMR-based nuclear power plants release essentially no greenhouse gas emissions or air pollutants and they emit very minimal emissions during their entire life cycle. Decarbonization measures may aid SMR growth. SMRs, for example, could be a good fit in terms of reactor capacity to replace a fraction of the power industry's retiring coal-fired power stations.
SMRs could also help decarbonize other energy sectors that require output temperatures between 80 and 200 degrees Celsius, such as district heating and process heating. Small modular reactors using light water can be utilized for district heating. For example, Finland's VTT Technical Research Centre launched a project in February 2020 to manufacture SMRs for applications of district heating to decarbonize the heat sector.
Regulations for small modular reactor deployment
The primary regulatory concern in the case of SMRs is the reduction in the size of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ). The EPZ is a zone where, according to the IEAE, preparations are made to promptly implement urgent protective action based on environmental monitoring data and facility circumstances to avoid doses prescribed by international standards. The plant site is surrounded by two EPZs, according to U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).
For any nuclear facility, the first zone, known as a Plume Exposure Pathway, is meant to minimize or reduce the dose from potential exposure to radioactive materials from the plant and is typically around 10 miles (16.1 km) in radius. The Ingestion Exposure Pathway, around 50 miles (80.5 kilometers) from any nuclear facility, is meant to decrease or avoid exposure from potential ingestion of food contaminated by radioactive contaminants.
As a result, the size and structure of each Emergency Planning Zone are determined by various criteria, including the operating characteristics of the nuclear facility, the geographical features of the plant site and the populated regions surrounding the plant. According to the IAEA, an EPZ radius of 5-25 km is preferred for reactors with thermal power outputs between 100 and 1,000 MWth to avoid radiation exposure to the population in the case of an accident.
Market Segment Analysis
By application, the small modular reactor market is segmented into multi-module power plants and single-module power plants.
Ease of financing additional modules in small modular reactors
SMRs can be implemented in scalable, multi-module designs to give grid operations more flexibility, allow for renewable integration and help replace aging nuclear power plants and coal-fired power plants. The ease with which new SMRs can be financed, resulting in series production economics, is driving the segment's growth.
Multi-module power plants also help avoid protracted outages by allowing for staggered refueling and unit-by-unit maintenance. The multi-mode structure also provides better grid flexibility, allowing for renewable integration and facilitating the replacement of existing nuclear power facilities and the retirement of coal-fired units. Furthermore, the SMR plant with multi-mode deployment helps to reduce financial costs by minimizing upfront expenditure. As a result, power companies are implementing multi-mode SMR in large numbers, likely to lead to strong segmental growth.
Market Geographical Share
The rapid economic growth of Asia-Pacific countries
Geographically, Asia-Pacific is predicted to dominate the worldwide small modular device industry, accounting for a major revenue share because of increased investments in SMR deployment in countries like China and India. The country's recent economic expansion has resulted in a rapid increase in energy demand. Energy companies are looking for new power solutions to fulfill the rising electricity demand. As a result, demand for innovative tiny modular devices in the region will likely increase dramatically.
Furthermore, China intends to encourage the development of Generation III coastal nuclear power facilities and SMRs and offshore floating nuclear reactors. At the same time, Japan's government has implemented several legislative reforms and taken steps to hasten decarbonization in the energy industry. For example, the Japanese government announced in October 2020 its ambitious ambition to cut greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) to zero by 2050, putting the country on track to become a carbon-neutral society. The method is critical in assisting Japan in achieving this lofty aim. The adoption of the small modular device sector is predicted to be aided by such a strategy.
Furthermore, the region has a wide pool of market suppliers with large operations and customer bases, resulting in greater availability of such solutions. For example, in July 2021, China began commercial construction of an onshore nuclear power plant employing a small modular reactor called Linglong One. The strategy is also responsible for the region's strong adoption of small modular reactors.
Market Competitive Landscape
Fortifying their positions, recreational boating market participants are working on various strategies such as mergers and acquisitions, sales channel development and product innovation. Major global small modular reactor market companies include Westing House Electric, Nuscale Power, Terrestrial Energy, Moltex Energy, X-Energy, Holtec International, General Atomics, Arc Clean Energy, Rolls-Royce and Lead-Cold Reactors.
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the growth of several enterprises. Businesses and governments' efforts to stop the virus from spreading have resulted in a considerable and rapid fall in demand for power generation. The demand for power systems had declined due to large-scale shutdowns and disruptions in global trade.
The epidemic has slowed investments in small modular reactor technologies and threatens to stifle the industry's progress toward commercialization. In the short term, the impact is greatest on the uranium supply side, as several mines and nuclear fuel cycle facilities have shut down due to health concerns.
The reductions have taken place in several important uranium-mining countries, including Kazakhstan, Canada and Namibia, producing nearly two-thirds of the world's uranium. Workers' health is causing extended outages at conventional nuclear power facilities. During the projection period, delays in small modular reactor design, licensing and construction, and a decline in electricity demand could negatively impact SMR development.
Russia-Ukraine War Impact
The war between Russia and Ukraine has had a major impact on the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) market due to the introduction of a lot of geopolitical uncertainty. The conflict has greatly affected global supply chains, causing prices to rise for important raw materials and components required for SMR construction. The recent instability has caused project delays and increased financial risks for investors, which has made the market less appealing in the short term. In addition, the relationships between Russian entities and global partners have been adversely impacted by international sanctions and trade restrictions, which has further complicated the market landscape.
On the other hand, the war has actually sparked more interest in energy security and diversification. This could potentially benefit the SMR market in the future. Nowadays, many countries are looking for ways to reduce their dependence on unpredictable energy sources. As a result, they are considering Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as a reliable and eco-friendly alternative. There is a shift in focus happening that could cause more people to want SMRs. This would lead to more money being invested and more development happening in the sector. Countries are looking to improve their energy resilience because of ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The global small modular reactor market report would provide access to an approx. 77 market data tables, 72 figures and 221 pages.
Target Audience 2024