2024 年全球電動車 (EV) 成長前景預測

由於OEM價格競爭，電動車（EV）產業面臨成長放緩

Frost & Sullivan 的這份分析根據最新的行業資料對電動車 (EV) 行業進行了研究，概述了當前趨勢，詳細分析了未來的發展，並詳細分析了該行業的主要相關人員及其表現。 。

2023年，電動車銷量將總合1,410萬輛，其中純電動車佔70.2%，插電式混合佔29.8%。 2022年燃料電池電動車銷量將維持不變，佔電動車總銷量的比例不到0.1%。到2022年，全球電動車滲透率將從13%增加到16%。亞太地區 (APAC) 的小型車市場滲透率全球最高，達 23%。

未來電動車的重要趨勢包括在量產電動車中引入鈉離子和固態電池、超級廣播、電動車價格下降、人工智慧的使用、V2G相容車輛的開發以及電池維修和更換的機會。主要OEM已正式宣布採用替代和先進的電池化學材料，包括鈉離子和固態電池。電動車製造商正在探索千兆廣播領域，並考慮到經濟實惠的電動車策略，但採用尚未廣泛。

全球電動車銷量預計將達到1850萬輛，與前一年同期比較31.1%。成長速度將放緩，主要是由於歐洲對獎勵的審查。預計到年終，充電樁安裝數量將超過520萬個，每12輛電動車就有1個充電連接器。全球電動車在輕型車領域的滲透率將達到 20%，這標誌著該產業的里程碑。隨著比亞迪擴大在歐洲和亞洲新興市場（日本、印度、泰國）的業務，比亞迪將保持領先地位，利潤率將高於 2023 年。在電池市場，寧德時代仍處於領先地位，比亞迪緊隨其後，電池產能約為945,000兆瓦/小時。

目錄

分析亮點

• 電動車 (EV) 亮點：2023 年和 2024 年的熱門預測
• 2023 年和 2024 年全球電動車市場概覽
• 電動車的成長與採用：十大市場
• 電動車的成長和採用：主要OEM
• 電動汽車電池概述
• 電動車的成長和採用：主要OEM
• 電動車充電基礎設施發展：前 5 個市場

策略要務

• 為什麼成長如此困難？
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• 關鍵策略要務措施對電動車產業的影響
• 成長機會推動Growth Pipeline Engine（TM）

調查範圍和細分

• 調查範圍
• 電動車細分

2024 年世界經濟展望

• 2024 年十大趨勢
• 十大成長機會
• 世界GDP成長率
• 通貨膨脹和利率
• 外匯走勢：
• 石油市場
• 勞動市場
• 關鍵礦產供應
• 北美洲
• 西歐
• 中東
• 亞洲

未來的趨勢

• 2024 年電動車市場的主要趨勢
• 鈉離子電池和固態電池進入電動車大眾市場
• 電動車製造中的千兆廣播
• 電動車價格下降
• 電動車充電中的人工智慧
• V2G相容車輛
• 電池維修和更換

電動車市場概況及 2024 年預測：歐洲

• 電動車亮點：2023/2024
• 歐洲電動車市場：2023/2024
• 電動車的成長與滲透率：主要國家
• 電動車的成長和滲透：主要OEM
• 未來10年歐洲動力傳動系統結構

電動車市場概況與 2024 年預測：美洲

• 電動車亮點：2023/2024
• 美洲電動車市場：2023/2024
• 電動車的成長與滲透率：主要國家
• 電動車的成長和滲透：主要OEM
• 美國未來10年的動力傳動系統結構

電動車市場概況及 2024 年預測：中國

• 電動車亮點：2023/2024
• 中國電動車市場：2023/2024
• 電動車的成長和採用：主要OEM
• 中國未來10年的動力傳動系統總成結構

電動車市場概況及 2024 年預測：亞太地區（不包括中國）

• 電動車亮點：2023/2024
• 亞太地區（不包括中國）電動車市場：2023/2024
• 電動車的成長與滲透率：主要國家
• 電動車的成長和採用：主要OEM
• 亞太地區（不包括中國）未來10年的動力傳動系統結構

電動車市場概況及 2024 年預測：中東和非洲

• 電動車亮點：2023/2024
• 中東/非洲電動車市場：2023/2024
• 電動車的成長與滲透率：主要國家
• 電動車的成長和滲透：主要OEM

成長機會宇宙

• 成長機會1：電動車價格與獎勵前價格一致並與傳統汽車競爭
• 成長機會 2：進軍電動車新興市場
• 成長機會 3：第一代電動車中的電動車電池修復與更換

結論

下一步

The Electric Vehicle Industry Will Suffer Growth Deceleration as OEMs Fight a Price War

This Frost & Sullivan analysis provides an outlook for the electric vehicle (EV) industry based on the latest industry data, an outline of current trends, an in-depth examination of future developments, and a breakdown of the main stakeholders in the sector and their performance.

EV sales in 2023 amounted to a total of 14.1 million, of which 70.2% were battery EVs and 29.8% were plug-in hybrid EVs. Fuel-cell EV sales remained the same as in 2022, constituting less than 0.1% of the total EV sales. Global EV penetration increased from 13% in 2022 to 16% in 2022. Asia-Pacific (APAC) has the highest penetration globally, with 23% in the light-duty vehicle segment.

Crucial upcoming EV trends include the introduction of sodium-ion and solid-state batteries in mass-market EVs, gigacasting, falling EV prices, usage of AI, development of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) compatible vehicles, and opportunities in battery repair and replacement. Key OEMs have officially announced the adoption of alternate and advanced battery chemistries, such as sodium ion and solid-state batteries. EV manufacturers are exploring the gigacasting space, considering their affordable EV strategy; however, adoption is not widespread yet.

Due to the discontinuation of incentives, OEMs are forced to lower EV prices to keep up with demand and compete with conventional vehicles. Most markets have either reduced or discontinued cash incentives on EVs. Battery management systems (BMS) and analytics, EV battery second life, and testing and validation will leverage AI and digitization. The development of V2G-compatible vehicles spearheads technological progress and is a priority because next-generation charging infrastructure will demand V2G-compatible vehicles.

EV sales will reach an estimated 18.5 million units globally with a 31.1% year-over-year growth. The pace of this growth will decelerate due to the revision of incentives, mainly in Europe. Charging point installations will surpass 5.2 million by the end of the year, with an estimated ratio of one charging connector for 12 EVs. The global EV penetration will reach 20% penetration in the light-duty vehicle segment, a milestone for the industry. BYD will retain the leadership with a higher margin than in 2023 as it expands its presence in Europe and emerging Asian markets (Japan, India, and Thailand). The battery market will supply approximately 945,000 megawatts/hour of battery capacity and, in this market, CATL will remain the leader, followed by BYD.

Table of Contents

Analysis Highlights

• Electric Vehicle Highlights: 2023 and Top Predictions for 2024
• Global EV Market Overview, 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Top 10 Markets
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• EV Battery Overview
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• EV Charging Infrastructure Development: Top 5 Markets

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the EV Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline EngineTM

Research Scope and Segmentation

• Research Scope
• EV Segmentation

2024 Global Economic Outlook

• Top 10 Trends for 2024
• Top 10 Growth Opportunities
• Global GDP Growth: Mild Global Growth Slowdown from 3.0% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 as Key Economies Lose Growth Momentum
• Inflation and Interest Rates: Headline Inflation will Continue to Decline; H2 2024 will Shift Towards Rate Cuts for Advanced ECONOMIES
• Currency Trajectory: Dollar to Remain Strong in H1 2024; Emerging Market Currencies to Get Boost from Q3 2024 Onwards
• OIL Markets: Q1 OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts; NON-OPEC Production to Rise
• Labor Market: Moderate Unemployment Uptick; Positive Expectations over Market Sentiment to Support Labor Hoarding
• Critical Minerals Supplies: Need for ECONOMIC Resiliency Will Bolster Cross-border and Cross-industry Partnerships
• North America: Economic Slowdown AMIDST Discretionary Spending Pullback and Elevated Interest Rates
• Western Europe: Moderate Growth Pick-up as Inflation Headwinds Ease Gradually; Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers to Take Precedence
• Middle East: Non-oil Growth Driven by Economic Diversification to Limit the Pullback Caused by a Slowdown in Global Oil Markets
• Asia: Emerging Economies to Drive Growth Momentum; Fiscal Measures to Support Chinese Economic Recovery

Upcoming Trends

• Key Trends in the EV Market for 2024
• Na-ion and Solid-state Batteries Enter the EV Mass Market
• Gigacasting in EV Manufacturing
• Falling EV Prices
• AI in EV Charging
• V2G-compatible Vehicles
• Battery Repair and Replacement

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: Europe

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• European EV Market, 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key Countries
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• The European Powertrain Mix in the Next Decade

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: Americas

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• Americas EV Market, 2023 And 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key Countries
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• The US Powertrain Mix in the Next Decade

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: China

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• Chinese EV Market: 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• The Chinese Powertrain Mix in the Next Decade

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: APAC (excluding China)

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• APAC EV Market, 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key Countries
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• The APAC Powertrain Mix in the Next Decade

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: MEA

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• MEA EV Market, 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key Countries
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: EV Pricing Will Match Pre-incentive Prices and Compete with Conventional Vehicles
• Growth Opportunity 2: Expansion into EV Emerging Markets
• Growth Opportunity 3: EV Battery Repair and Replacement for First-generation EVs

Conclusions

• Conclusions and Future Outlook

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer