川普2.0帶來的全球宏觀經濟風險與機會（2025-2028）

美國政策發展和長期貿易戰帶來的短期衝擊預計將導致 2028 年全球 GDP 成長下降 1.5%。

在美國第二屆川普政府執政下，全球貿易和經濟成長動能將因政治、貿易和政策發展而變得複雜。

在基準中，預計 2025 年至 2028 年期間對全球 GDP 的影響將保持適度，主要受亞洲主要新興市場的強勁成長推動。在悲觀情境下，曠日持久的貿易戰可能導致2028年全球GDP成長下降1.5%。從國家層級來看，在基準情境下，2028年美國實質GDP成長可能放緩至2.0%，在悲觀情境下則可能放緩至0.5%。美國的貿易和移民限制可能會加劇2025年加拿大和墨西哥經濟的景氣衰退。例如，預計墨西哥經濟在2025年在基準下將萎縮0.4％，在悲觀情境下將萎縮0.5％。

該分析還包括川普第二屆政府對全球經濟以及汽車、半導體、石油和天然氣產業的長期影響。在地緣政治緊張局勢加劇和貿易戰持續的時代，決策者和高階主管可以利用這種思想領導力，在近期至中期內做出明智的業務和擴張決策。

目錄

成長機會：研究範圍

策略要務

• 成長為何變得越來越艱難？
• 策略要務
• 三大戰略必要事項對川普2.0帶來的全球宏觀經濟風險與機會的影響，2025-2028年

成長機會分析

• 2025-2028 年川普2.0帶來的全球宏觀經濟風險與機會：促進因素與限制因素
• 經濟指標
• 簡稱

生態系統

• 行政命令 - 移民
• 行政命令 - 能源與氣候
• 總統令 - 企業稅

成長動力

• 川普2.0——潛在的政策願景情景
• 川普2.0政策的潛在影響與風險
• 主要宏觀經濟影響 – 世界
• 主要宏觀經濟影響 –美國
• 主要宏觀經濟影響－中國
• 主要宏觀經濟影響 – 墨西哥
• 主要宏觀經濟影響 – 歐元區
• 川普2.0的長期影響

產業影響分析

• 車
• 石油和天然氣
• 半導體

成長機會

• 成長機會一：汽車
• 成長機會二：能源（石油天然氣、綠色能源、核能）
• 成長機會三：高科技產業（人工智慧、半導體）

附錄與後續步驟

Near-Term Shocks Amid US Policy Moves; Protracted Trade Wars Will Shave Off 1.5% of Global GDP Growth in 2028

Global trade and economic growth momentum will be a complex function of political, trade, and policy moves made under the second Trump administration in the United States. This Frost & Sullivan macroeconomic thought leadership lays down potential US policy scenarios (including tariffs, immigration, and foreign policy) to establish forecasts for 2025 and 2028 for the global economy and the economies of the United States, China, Mexico, and the euro area.

In the baseline, Frost & Sullivan expects the impact on global GDP to remain muted between 2025 and 2028 mainly due to buoyant growth in key Asian emerging markets. In the pessimistic scenario, protracted trade wars could shave off 1.5% from global GDP growth in 2028. At the national level, in 2028, the United States' real GDP growth could slow to 2.0% in the baseline scenario and a meager 0.5% in the pessimistic scenario. US trade and immigration regulations might exacerbate recessionary conditions in the Canadian and Mexican economies in 2025. For instance, the Mexican economy is forecast to face a 0.4% contraction in 2025 in the baseline and a 0.5% contraction in the pessimistic case.

The analysis includes long-term implications of the second Trump administration on the global economy and on the automotive, semiconductor, and oil and gas industries. Decision-makers and executives can leverage this thought leadership to make informed business and expansion decisions in the near to medium term in an era of elevated geopolitical tensions and persistent trade wars.

Table of Contents

Growth Opportunities: Research Scope

• Scope of Analysis

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives of Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025-2028

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025-2028: Drivers and Restraints
• Economic Metrics
• Abbreviations

Ecosystem

• Executive Orders-Immigration-Focused
• Executive Orders-Energy and Climate-Focused
• Executive Orders-Corporate Tax-Focused Measures

Growth Generator

• Trump 2.0-Potential Policy Vision Scenarios
• Trump 2.0 Policy Likelihood and Risk Impact Mapping
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-Global
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-United States
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-China
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-Mexico
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-Euro Area
• Trump 2.0 Long-Term Implications

Industry Impact Analysis

• Automotive
• Oil and Gas
• Semiconductors

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Automotive
• Growth Opportunity 2: Energy (Oil and Gas, Green Energy, and Nuclear Energy)
• Growth Opportunity 3: High-Tech Industries (AI and Semiconductors)

Appendix & Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer