能源轉換形成的重要材料

全球能源轉型將需要大幅增加太陽能、風能、儲能、電動車和低碳氫化合物生產等關鍵技術的產能。這將增加對各種關鍵材料的需求，某些材料的需求成長超過供應。

由於能源轉型技術，上述原料的需求將大幅增加。儘管最近出現了供應過剩的擔憂，但從長遠來看，鋰無疑仍將是風險最大的關鍵原材料，其能量密集的特性使其成為電池電動車 (BEV) 和儲能的關鍵材料。儘管礦業公司正在提高產能，並降低礦場的供應風險，但鋰精煉在地理上仍然高度集中在中國等特定國家，價值鏈中的單一加工環節構成了來源風險。

同時，鈷、銅、鎳和石墨等其他原料在影響能源轉型技術方面將繼續構成中度至高度風險。風電、太陽能、電網、儲能和電動車等技術需要大量的每種材料，隨著新礦場的開發，給現有供應帶來壓力。

鉑、矽等材料具有中度至低度的能源轉型風險，但從長遠來看，兩者都面臨著需求的大幅增長，因此需要國際社會的努力。廣泛而快速地採用電解質膜電解槽來生產氫氣將威脅鉑金的供應。同時，儘管矽對太陽能電池很重要，但它仍然是地理上最集中的供應鏈之一。

主要亮點

• 近年來，由於再生能源和配套基礎設施的發展加快，對主要礦產的需求大幅增加。
• 根據 IEA 的數據，清潔能源技術對礦物的需求從 2010 年的 460 萬噸增加到 2020 年的 710 萬噸，同期複合年增長率為 4.3%。
• 根據 GlobalData 的礦產產量預測，2024 年至 2030 年鋰產量預計將以 14% 的複合年增長率增長，到本十年末將達到 500kT 以上。
• 預計從 2023 年到 2010 年底，依賴鋰離子電池的儲能項目將大幅增加，到 2023 年，隨著許多管道項目的上線，該子技術的儲能容量將從 18GWh 增加到 54GWh。 2030年。
• 智利將在全球銅業中保持強大的市場地位，其正在醞釀的 97 個以銅為主要礦產的採礦項目，但秘魯、美國、加拿大和澳大利亞等其他國家也是如此，據信未來計劃建設銅礦的熱門地點。
• 中國主導太陽能價值鏈的每個環節，並且是矽的主要生產國，預計到 2024 年年產能將達到 600 萬噸。除了製造面板和模組外，中國也是矽片和電池的重要生產國。

本報告審查和分析了塑造能源轉型的關鍵材料，提供每種材料的風險評估、供需預測以及當前和即將開展的項目的詳細資訊。

目錄

• 執行摘要
• 能源轉型與重要原料
• 鋰
• 銅
• 鈷
• 鎳
• 白金級
• 矽
• 石墨
• 聯絡我們

The global energy transition will require a substantial build out of capacity across key technologies such as solar, wind, energy storage, electric vehicles and low-carbon hydrogen production. This will increase demand across a broad range of critical materials and for some this demand growth will outpace supply. In its critical minerals report, GlobalData identifies the most at-risk raw materials necessary for the energy transition, taking into account the importance of each material to different energy transition technologies, the volume of material required, and risk factors to each material's supply. Using this framework, the report discusses the supply risk of lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, platinum, silicon, and graphite.

The raw materials discussed will experience significant demand increases from energy transition technologies. Despite recent oversupply concerns, lithium arguably remains the most at-risk critical raw material for the long term, with its energy density properties making it a pivotal raw material for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and energy storage more widely. Although miners are increasing their production capacity, which will alleviate the mine side supply risk, lithium refining remains highly geographically concentrated in select countries such as China, creating single source risk in the processing element of the value chain.

Meanwhile, other raw materials such as cobalt, copper, nickel, and graphite, will continue to have a medium-high level of risk in terms of how they could impact energy transition technologies. Large quantities of each material will be required for technologies such as wind, solar, power grids, energy storage, and electric vehicles, which will put pressure on existing supplies while new mines continue to develop.

Materials such as platinum and silicon present a medium to low risk for the energy transition but still require international efforts to secure their supplies as both will face a strong increase in demand in the long term. A widespread and rapid adoption of PEM electrolyzers within hydrogen production will threaten platinum supplies while, despite its importance to solar, silicon still holds one of the most geographically concentrated supply chains.

Key Highlights

• Recent years have witnessed a strong increase in demand for key minerals following the increased installation of renewable energy and its supporting infrastructure.
• According to the IEA, mineral demand from clean energy technologies increased from 4.6Mt in 2010 to 7.1Mt in 2020, which represented a CAGR of 4.3% across the time frame.
• According to GlobalData's commodity production forecasts, lithium production is expected to increase at a CAGR of almost 14% between 2024 and 2030, surpassing 500kT by the end of the decade.
• Although alternative battery chemistries are increasingly a focus of research and development efforts, energy storage projects relying on lithium-ion batteries are still expected to see a strong increase between 2023 and the end of the decade, with the energy storage capacity of this sub-technology increasing from 18GWh in 2023 to 54GWh by 2030 as a number of pipeline projects come online.
• While Chile will retain its strong market position in the global copper industry with a pipeline of 97 mine projects where copper is the primary commodity, other countries such as Peru, the United States, Canada, and Australia will also be popular sites for upcoming copper mines.
• China dominates each stage of solar value chain, acting as a leading producer of silicon, with a forecast production capacity of 6mtpa in 2024. China is also a pre-eminent player within wafer, cell, as well as panel and module manufacturing.

Scope

• Risk assessment of critical raw materials required for energy transition technologies
• Risk drivers for critical material value chains
• Lithium supply and demand forecasts
• Lithium active and upcoming mines
• Energy transition technologies driving increased lithium demand
• Analysis of leading countries and companies for lithium
• Copper supply and demand forecasts
• Analysis of upcoming copper projects by geography and development stage
• Analysis of leading countries and companies for copper
• Cobalt supply and demand forecasts
• Project details for largest active and upcoming cobalt mines
• Analysis of leading countries and companies for cobalt
• Nickel supply and demand forecasts
• Project details for largest active and upcoming nickel projects
• Analysis of leading countries and companies for nickel production
• Platinum supply and demand forecasts
• Project details for largest active and upcoming platinum projects
• Analysis of leading countries and companies for platinum production
• Silicon supply and demand analysis
• Top silicon producing countries
• Graphite supply and demand analysis
• Project details for largest active and upcoming graphite projects
• Leading countries and companies for graphite production

Reasons to Buy

• Understand the factors driving risk for the supplies of critical materials necessary for the energy transition.
• Gain an understanding of the critical material demands of energy transition technologies.
• Stay informed about key mining projects that will influence the supplies of critical raw materials
• Gain insight into the geographical characteristics of the critical raw material market
• Understand the key players producing lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, platinum and graphite.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• The Energy Transition and Critical Raw Materials
• Lithium
• Copper
• Cobalt
• Nickel
• Platinum
• Silicon
• Graphite
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