公路及鐵路貨運脫碳

公路和鐵路貨運對於供應鏈的運輸至關重要，但它也是主要的排放源。根據 IEA 的數據，到 2022 年，交通運輸部門的二氧化碳排放量佔全球二氧化碳排放量的 23%。實現淨零目標需要部署一系列能源轉型技術，包括電氣化、替代燃料和氫氣。本報告涵蓋了每種技術的發展階段及其對公路和鐵路貨運的適用性。

到 2022 年，公路運輸佔運輸相關排放量的 74%，重型貨運車輛佔 16%，鐵路僅佔 1%。為了滿足 IEA 的 2050 NZE 情景，交通運輸部門必須到 2030 年每年將二氧化碳排放量減少 3% 以上。這項要求要求兩個部門在能源轉型技術上共同努力，以實現減排。

在公路貨運方面，重點正在轉向卡車電氣化，但範圍有限和加油時間長等挑戰是行業利益相關者主要關注的問題。氫動力卡車也有望在該行業的脫碳中發揮關鍵作用，提供長距離和快速加油的好處。然而，其高昂的製造成本和缺乏加油基礎設施繼續阻礙其廣泛採用。另一方面，替代燃料和混合燃料混合物代表了一種可行的臨時解決方案，而該行業期待降低氫的價格並提高重型車輛電池的性能。

與公路貨運不同，由於人們認識到鐵路已經是一種清潔的運輸方式，因此鐵路貨運的脫碳並沒有那麼緊迫。然而，鐵路是陸路長途散裝運輸最有效的解決方案，因此對於貨運業脫碳至關重要。

最終，公路和鐵路部門之間的合作對於減少排放和實現淨零目標至關重要。鐵路將負責長途運輸，而卡車將專注於住宅區和偏遠地區的最後一英里交付。

本報告審查和分析了全球公路和鐵路貨運行業，並評估了電氣化、替代燃料和氫氣等能源轉型技術的適用性，這些技術有可能使這些行業脫碳。

主要亮點

• 提高效率和最佳化措施是減少陸上貨運排放的最快且最具成本效益的方法。
• 電氣化作為傳統內燃機（ICE）的替代品，為鐵路和公路貨運提供了巨大的脫碳潛力。
• 使用 FAME 生物柴油、HVO 和合成燃料等替代燃料為減少排放提供了臨時解決方案，同時業界也在等待氫氣等更具創新性的技術的進一步發展。
• 氫燃料電池和氫內燃機透過氫氣取代碳氫化合物燃料，為陸上貨運產業提供了巨大的脫碳潛力。目前，該技術的廣泛使用受到電力和新基礎設施成本高昂的阻礙。
• 最終，連接公路和鐵路將產生最大的效果。未來，陸路運輸很可能走向多式聯運。鐵路適合長途運輸，卡車可以更靈活地覆蓋首公里和最後一公里。

目錄

• 執行摘要
• 公路和鐵路貨運的碳排放
• 能量轉換技術簡介
• 評估能源轉換技術的脫碳潛力
• 公路與鐵路貨運脫碳的主要挑戰
• 公路與鐵路貨運的淨零排放目標
• 公路與鐵路貨運電氣化
• 公路與鐵路貨運替代燃料：生質柴油與合成燃料
• 公路和鐵路貨運中的氫氣
• 未來方向：部門合作

Road and rail freight transport are essential to keep supply chains moving; however, they are significant sources of emissions. According to the IEA, in 2022, the transport sector accounted for 23% of global CO2 emissions in 2022. In order to meet net-zero targets, a range of energy transition technologies, including electrification, alternative fuels and hydrogen, will need be to be deployed. This report will tackle the development stage of each technology, as well as their suitability to road and rail freight.

In 2022, road transport accounted for 74% of all transport-related emissions, with heavy freight vehicles contributing 16% and rail only contributing 1% of all transport-related emissions. To align with the IEA's 2050 NZE scenario, the transport sector must reduce CO2 emissions by over 3% per year by 2030. Due to this requirement, both sectors will need to engage with a combination of energy transition technologies to achieve emissions reductions.

This report assesses the suitability of energy transition technologies such as electrification, alternative fuels, and hydrogen, which hold decarbonization potential for both sectors. This report also includes a snapshot of emissions targets and interim strategies from both sectors' biggest companies, as well as relevant governmental policies and initiatives.

In road freight, the emphasis is shifting toward the electrification of trucks, although challenges like limited range and lengthy refueling times are significant concerns for industry stakeholders. Hydrogen-fueled trucks are also expected to play a significant role in the sector's decarbonization, offering the benefits of longer journeys and faster refueling. However, their high production costs and a lack of refueling infrastructure continue to hinder widespread adoption. In the meantime, alternative fuels and hybrid blends present a viable interim solution while the industry anticipates price reductions for hydrogen and improved performance of batteries within heavy vehicles.

Unlike road freight, the decarbonization of rail freight has not been approached with the same urgency, largely due to the perception that rail is already a cleaner mode of transport. However, rail will be essential in decarbonizing the freight industry, as it represents the most efficient solution for long-haul bulk transport over land.

Ultimately, collaboration between the road and rail sectors will be crucial for reducing emissions and achieving net-zero targets. Intermodal transport will allow both sectors to leverage their strengths: trains will handle longer distances, while trucks will focus on last-mile deliveries in residential or remote areas.

Key Highlights

• Increasing efficiencies and optimization measures will represent the fastest and most cost-effective way to reduce emissions from land freight.
• Electrification will offer huge decarbonizing potential to both rail and road freight transportation as a substitute from traditional ICEs (internal combustion engines).
• The utilization of alternative fuels such as FAME biodiesel, HVO, and synthetic fuels will provide an interim solution for emission reductions whilst the industry awaits further development of more innovative technologies such as hydrogen.
• Hydrogen fuel cells and hydrogen combustion engines will offer great decarbonization potential for the land freight industry by replacing hydrocarbon-based fuels with the input of hydrogen. Widespread adoption of the technology is currently hindered by the high costs of both electricity and new infrastructure.
• Ultimately, collaboration between road and rail will yield the biggest results. Going forward, land freight is likely to be intermodal, i.e.: a combination of both modes of transport, as trains are better suited for long-haul, and trucks are able to cover the first and last kilometres with better flexibility.

Scope

• Global CO2 emissions from the road and rail freight industry, relevant policies for the decarbonization of the industry, analysis of strategies adopted by major players in the road and rail freight industry - including case studies, analysis of different decarbonizing technologies such as electrification, adoption of alternative fuels, and hydrogen.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify market trends within the industry and assess who the biggest players in land freight are and what they are doing to reduce emissions.
• Develop market insight of the major technologies used to decarbonize land freight through case studies from industry leaders in both road and rail.
• Understand adoption trends of emerging low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen-powered rail.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive summary
• Road and rail freight carbon emissions
• Introduction to energy transition technologies
• Assessing the decarbonization potential of energy transition technologies
• Main challenges to decarbonizing road and rail freight
• Road and rail freight net-zero emission targets
• Electrifying road and rail freight
• Alternative fuels in road and rail freight: biodiesel and synthetic fuels
• Hydrogen in road and rail freight
• The way forward: sector cooperation

List of Tables

• Decarbonization potential, development stage, suitability for rail, and suitability for road for electrification, alternative fuels, and hydrogen.
• Advantages and disadvantages for biofuels, synthetic fuels, BEV, FCEV, overhead charging.
• Long-term and interim targets for top 10 heavy-duty companies
• Long-term and interim targets for top 10 railway companies
• Railway companies' interim strategies
• Advantages and disadvantages for road and rail

List of Figures

• CO2 emissions by sector, 2019-2022
• CO2 emissions by transport sub-sector in 2022
• CO2 emissions from rail and NZE scenario, 2010-2030
• CO2 emissions from heavy freight truck and NZE scenario, 2010-2030
• Road freight CO2 emissions by heavy duty trucks by region, 2020
• HDV production forecast by fuel type, 2024-2035
• FAME biodiesel production capacity, 2021-2030
• Renewable diesel production capacity, 2021-2030
• Upcoming low-carbon hydrogen capacity allocated to synthetic fuels and project count, 2025-2030
• Global low-carbon hydrogen capacity, 2024-2030
• Hydrogen plants by end-use, 2024 YTD