2025 年 1 月歐洲能源價格

報告概述

歐洲能源價格提供了到 2050 年歐洲燃料、碳和電力價格的全面展望。原油價格將比春季預測的每桶低2至3美元，需求將在2031年達到10,870萬桶/日的峰值，然後開始下降。風險包括中東緊張局勢和OPEC+戰略。由於地緣政治風險，天然氣價格仍然不穩定，但 2026 年至 2029 年液化天然氣供應的增加可能有助於壓低價格。由於歐盟需求減弱，煤炭價格持續低迷。碳價將保持疲軟，但將受到市場規則和天然氣價格的支撐。到2030年，電價仍將維持高位，之後因脫碳而下降。

Report Summary:

"Europe energy prices" provides a comprehensive outlook for fuels, carbon and power prices in Europe to 2050. Oil prices are set to weaken by $2-3/bbl compared to spring forecasts, with demand peaking at 108.7 mb/d in 2031 before declining. Risks include Middle East tensions and OPEC+ strategies. Gas prices remain volatile due to geopolitical risks, but LNG supply growth from 2026-2029 will pressure prices down. Coal prices stay suppressed amid falling EU demand. Carbon prices remain weak but are supported by market rules and gas prices. Power prices stay high until 2030 before falling with decarbonization.