市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1496037
化肥市場:2024年至2029年預測Fertilizer Market - Forecasts from 2024 to 2029 |
預計2022年化肥市場規模將達2,172.42億美元,複合年成長率為3.80%,2029年市場規模將達2,820.95億美元。
有限的耕地和不斷成長的提供肥料的人口有助於農民利用現有土地最大限度地提高生產力。特別是隨著都市化的不斷提高,對適當農業投入以提高產量的需求不斷增加。在各種肥料類型中,2022年交易量最大的是礦物氮肥和化學氮肥,佔43%,混合肥料佔29%,鉀鹽礦物和化肥佔24%。
此外,化肥使用補貼和激勵等政府政策也會對市場需求產生重大影響。在印度,預計2025會計年度含磷酸二銨(dap)和npk(氮、磷、鉀)的複合肥國內銷售成長率預計在4-5%之間。這一成長得益於正常季風前景和穩定的零售價格。
食品需求的增加預計將推動市場成長。
到 2022 年 11 月中旬,世界人口達到 80 億。根據預測,未來30年世界人口可能增加近20億,到2050年將達到97億,並在2080年代中期達到高峰近104億。中國和印度仍是人口最多的兩個國家,人口均超過10億,幾乎佔世界人口的18%。
2023年,由於長期糧食危機和新的衝擊,嚴重的糧食不安全水準達到歷史最高水準。 48 個國家約 2.38 億人面臨嚴重的糧食不安全,比 2022 年增加 10%。肥料在提高農業產量和確保充足的糧食生產以滿足不斷成長的人口的需求方面發揮著至關重要的作用。解決糧食安全問題的需求預計將在可預見的未來推動化肥市場的持續成長。
預計北美地區市場將成長。
美國化肥產業受到多種因素的影響,包括作物需求和生產要求,並可能受到現有法規和地方政府補貼的約束。此外,生產商的化肥採購決策受到某些作物(尤其是玉米和大豆)相關全球價格波動的影響。促進成長的精密農業技術的發展也推動了國內化肥需求。
根據美國農業部的數據,美國每千英畝作物面積從 2020 年的 291,429,000 英畝增加到 2021 年的 298,863,000 英畝,其中包括水稻、大豆、花生、向日葵和棉花,包括乾食用豆類的收穫面積、鷹嘴豆、菜籽、油菜、小米、甘蔗、乾草、菸草和甘蔗,以及雙季和未收穫的小穀物。
此外,根據美國2021 年的報告,大約 3,000 個水果和蔬菜種植企業使用 CEA 類型的保護措施。以作物總價值計算,這 2-3% 是美國的重要部門。 CEA 種植的作物以高價值草本植物、葉菜類、微型菜苗、漿果、攀緣蔬菜(黃瓜、番茄、辣椒等)、花卉、蘑菇和幼苗為特色。據估計,美國有超過2000個垂直農場大規模使用化學肥料。
美國化肥產業受到各種產品推出和政府措施的巨大影響。新產品創新,例如突破性配方和增強的營養輸送系統,有可能透過提高農民的生產力和績效來刺激市場開拓。
2023 年 6 月,全球特種礦物領導者 ICL 宣佈在北美推出 Nova 品牌水溶性肥料的一系列創新葉面噴布施肥解決方案。我們的主要產品有 Nova Finish (TM)、Nova Pulse (TM)、Nova Elevate (TM) 和 Nova Flow (TM)。此外,2023 年 12 月,全球農業、能源和化學解決方案提供商 Koch Ag &Energy Solutions (KAES) 宣布簽署協議,以 36 億美元收購 OCI Global 位於愛荷華州韋伯的化肥工廠。
此外,政府資助的研發項目經常刺激化肥產業的創新,從而開發新產品和新方法。 2023 年 3 月,美國農業部 (USDA) 部長湯姆·維爾薩克 (Tom Vilsack) 宣布,在新的津貼計劃的前兩輪中,來自47 個州和兩個地區的350 筆贈款,旨在提高國內創新肥料的生產能力,超過1,000 家獨立公司宣布了這項計畫。
The fertilizer market was estimated to be at US$217.242 billion in 2022, growing at a CAGR of 3.80%, reaching a market size of US$282.095 billion by 2029.
The limited arable land and growing population to feed fertilizers help farmers maximize productivity on existing land. With the particular increase in urbanization, there is a growing need for the appropriate agricultural inputs for agriculture to increase production. Among various fertilizer types, mineral, and chemical nitrogenous fertilizers are the most traded in 2022, with 43%, Fertilizers mixtures to be at 29%, and Potassiac mineral and chemical fertilizers at 24%.
Moreover, Government policies like subsidies and incentives for fertilizer use can significantly impact market demand. Such as, In India, the anticipated growth rate for domestic sales volume of complex fertilizers, including diammonium phosphate (dap) and npk (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium), in the fiscal year 2025 is expected to range between 4-5%. this growth is supported by the outlook for a normal monsoon and stable retail prices. lower volatility in raw material costs will enable the government to provide a corresponding nutrient-based subsidy (NBS), aiming to enhance the operating profitability of manufacturers to a normalized level.
Growing demand for food is anticipated to propel market growth.
The global human population reached 8.0 billion in mid-November 2022. Projections indicate that the world's population will increase by nearly 2 billion individuals over the next 30 years, reaching 9.7 billion by 2050 and potentially peaking at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s. China and India remain the two most populous countries, each with over 1 billion people, representing nearly 18 per cent of the world's population, respectively.
In 2023, acute food insecurity levels reached record highs due to prolonged food crises and new shocks. Approximately 238 million people across 48 countries are facing severe food insecurity, which is 10% higher than in 2022. Fertilizers play a crucial role in enhancing agricultural yields and ensuring sufficient food production to meet the needs of a growing population. The necessity to address food security concerns is expected to drive the continued growth of the fertilizer market in the foreseeable future.
The market is projected to grow in the North American region.
The fertilizer industry in the United States is affected by various factors, such as crop demand and output requirements, that might depend on the current rules and subsidies of the local government. In addition, the fertilizer purchasing decisions of producers are affected by the fluctuations in the global prices that accompany specific crops, in particular maize and soybeans. The growth-enabling precision agricultural technological developments are also fueling the demand for fertilizers in the nation.
According to USDA, crop area harvested per 1,000 acres in the United States increased from 2,91,429 thousand acres in 2020 to 2,98,863 thousand acres in 2021, The list included crops like corn, sorghum, oats, barley, rye, winter wheat, Durum wheat, rice, soybeans, peanuts, sunflower, cotton, dry edible beans, chickpeas, potatoes, canola, proso millet, and sugarbeets, with harvested acreage for hay, tobacco, and sugarcane, including double cropped acres and unharvested small grains.
Furthermore, the 2021 USDA report shows that among the fruit and vegetable agricultural businesses, there are around 3,000 that use CEA-type protection. This 2-3% is a significant sector in the US in terms of total crop value. CEA-grown crops are characterized by high-value herbs, leafy greens, microgreens, berries, vine vegetables (like cucumbers, tomatoes, and peppers), flowers, mushrooms, and nursery crops. As per the estimates, more than 2,000 vertical farming operations are present in the US which utilizes fertilizers on a large scale.
Various product introductions and government initiatives have a big influence on the fertilizer industry in the United States. New product innovations, such as revolutionary formulations or increased nutrient delivery systems, have the potential to stimulate market development by improving farmer productivity and performance.
In June 2023, ICL, a global leader in specialized minerals, announced the North American introduction of a new line of innovative foliar and fertigation solutions under the Nova brand of water-soluble fertilizers. The flagship products are Nova FINISH(TM), Nova PULSE(TM), Nova ELEVATE(TM), and Nova FLOW(TM). Furthermore, in December 2023, Koch Ag & Energy Solutions (KAES), a global provider of agricultural, energy, and chemical solutions, announced that it had s reached an agreement to buy OCI Global's fertilizer facility in Wever, Iowa, for $3.6 billion.
Besides that, government-funded research and development programs frequently stimulate innovation in the fertilizer industry, resulting in the development of new products and methods. Owing to this, in March 2023, Secretary Tom Vilsack of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that more than 350 independent businesses from 47 states and two territories applied for $3 billion in the first two rounds of a new grant program to increase innovative domestic fertilizer production capacity.