汽車產業的未來：涵蓋OEM格局、聯網汽車、自動駕駛技術、電動車、電池技術創新、動力傳動系統和共享出行－預測2030年

汽車產業（包括PV、LCV和MHCV）的市場規模預計將從2024年的8,800萬輛增加到2030年的1.04億輛，複合年成長率為2.4%。

由於多種因素，汽車市場預計將成長。汽車產業目前面臨持續的壓力，需要適應技術進步和最終用戶偏好驅動的新變化。電動車的採用是見證汽車產業快速變化的關鍵因素。在電動車領域，開發和製造遠距電池以及為客戶安裝快速和超快速充電點是OEM和電動車解決方案提供商的首要任務。

此外，具有增強安全功能和先進自動化的自動駕駛汽車的推出正在改變汽車市場的動態。此外，OEM正致力於透過使用千兆廣播技術和智慧製造來降低汽車生產成本，智慧製造在設計和製造零件時採用自動化和機器人技術。

5G聯網汽車迅速普及，可改善駕駛體驗、車隊管理、智慧城市和雲端運算。據估計，到 2024年終，大約五分之一的聯網汽車將整合 5G 連線。該技術預計將快速發展，並在 2030 年實現較高的市場滲透率。

共享出行包括由多個用戶使用而不是個人擁有的各種交通服務和資源。這個概念包括汽車共享、自行車共享、叫車和大眾交通工具。透過促進共享使用而不是個人所有權，共享出行旨在降低交通成本，最大限度地減少對環境的影響，並改善城市流動性和可及性。透過最佳化車輛和基礎設施的使用，我們為都市化帶來的交通堵塞和污染等挑戰提供永續的解決方案。最終，共享出行旨在為世界各地的城市創建更有效率、公平和環保的交通系統。

本報告審視了全球汽車產業的未來，總結了汽車製造商的產業格局、聯網汽車趨勢、自動駕駛技術、電動車、電池創新、動力傳動系統和共享出行。

目錄

• 研究目的和調查方法
• 調查範圍
• 汽車產業的未來：整體趨勢
• 世界汽車銷售（PV+LCV+MHCV）及GDP成長率：1980-2030
• 持有汽車數量和車齡的增加
• 不斷成長的中產階級和 Z 世代人口將推動未來的銷售
• 連網型、自主、共享、電氣化（案例）：擴大採用
• 嬰兒潮經濟：新興國家超越已開發國家
• 汽車銷售：新興市場的下一波成長
• 汽車OEM集團20強
• 汽車平台的變化
• 摘要
• 電動車：BEV輕型車銷售轉折點
• 逐步淘汰內燃機汽車
• 電氣化將改變汽車製造商和價值鏈
• 電氣化改變製造程序
• 「平台」的變化正在推動電動車製造的變革
• 電池容量分析
• 充電性能
• 電池技術：電池技術成熟度曲線與時間表
• 電池技術：電池溫度控管技術和SSB
• 電池技術：電動車電池封裝解決方案
• 電池技術：電動車電池價格
• 電力電子：產業正向SIC+GAN邁進，但專注於應用需求
• 電動馬達
• 電動車電池4R生態系統
• 摘要
• 數位連網生活的未來
• 基於汽車的連網生活生態系統
• 數位連網生活服務：行動產業的 TAM
• 未來汽車的連網型功能
• 車載和客製化數位體驗
• 軟體定義框架
• OEM數位駕駛座專案概述
• 支援 SDV 的硬體/EE架構的演變
• 軟體定義車輛 (SDV)
• 資料收益手段
• 5G 在汽車產業：使用案例
• 生成式人工智慧將對汽車產業產生多方面的影響
• 摘要
• 自動駕駛
• 自動駕駛水平
• 感測器焦點
• 乘用車技術堆疊
• OEM自動駕駛服務（按地區）
• 專注OEM
• 自動駕駛：功能映射
• L4概述
• 自動駕駛市場預測
• 自動駕駛：重點
• 摘要
• 未來的動力傳動系統組合
• 永續移動藍圖- 基於用例和應用程式的解決方案組合
• 電動動力傳動系統發展藍圖－加速引入輕資產模式
• 未來的動力傳動系統平台 - OEM的效率改進方案
• OEM 2030動力傳動系統策略
• 摘要
• 多模態與 15 分鐘城市
• 除了貨運車輛外，專用的數量也在增加。
• 數位化預購體驗與汽車銷售亞馬遜化

The automotive industry, encompassing PV, LCV, and MHCV, size is projected to grow from 88 million units in 2024 and is projected to hit 104 million units by 2030, at a CAGR of 2.4%. The automotive market is expected to experience growth driven by various factors. The automotive industry is currently under constant pressure to adapt to new changes due to technological advancements and end-user preferences. Adoption of electric vehicles is the key factor that has witnessed a rapid change in the automotive industry. In line with the EV sector, development and manufacturing of long-range batteries along with installation of fast and ultra-fast charging points for customers is the foremost agenda of the OEMs and EV solution providing companies.

Further, the introduction of autonomous cars with enhanced safety features and higher level of automation is shifting the trends in the automotive market. Moreover, OEMs are focused on reducing the production cost of the vehicle by using gigacasting technology and smart manufacturing by adopting automation and robotics while designing and manufacturing the components.

Furthermore, 5G connected cars to enhance driving experience, manage cars fleet, smart cities and cloud computing is catching on rapidly. It is estimated that around one-fifth of the connected cars will be integrated with 5G connectivity by the end of 2024. This technology is expected to develop quickly can penetrate the market at a high rate by 2030.

Shared mobility encompasses a range of transportation services and resources that are utilized by multiple users, rather than owned individually. This concept includes car-sharing, bike-sharing, ride-hailing, and public transit. By promoting shared access over individual ownership, shared mobility seeks to reduce transportation costs, minimize environmental impact, and enhance urban mobility and accessibility. It offers a sustainable solution to the growing challenges of urbanization, such as traffic congestion and pollution, by optimizing the use of vehicles and infrastructure. Ultimately, shared mobility aims to create more efficient, equitable, and environmentally friendly transportation systems in cities worldwide.

"Autonomous vehicles are anticipated to witness significant growth."

Autonomous vehicles are projected to grow significantly by 2030 due to the rising demand for safety, comfort, and driving convenience features. The launch of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles is another factor contributing to the market's expansion. Numerous OEMs are introducing Level 2, Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous vehicles, including Nissan, Honda, Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz. For Instance, in July 2023, BMW announced to launch a 7 Series, Level 3 autonomous driving car by early 2024. Similarly, in February 2022, Benteler EV Systems, Beep and Mobileye announced a collaboration to develop a fully electric and autonomous (SAE Level 4) vehicle that can be used for commuters on public and private roads by early 2024.

"Asia Pacific holds the largest market share in the forecast period"

Asia Pacific has emerged as a promising market for the global automobile industry. The principal driver of this trend is the Chinese market, which has grown to become the world's largest producer and buyer of automobiles. India, Japan, and South Korea are also important country-level markets in the region. While India is gradually becoming a major contributor in the automotive sector, Japan and South Korea are already well-established. According to OICA, China and India produce over 30 million vehicles each year. Despite the worldwide market slowdown, the Asia region has seen growth in automobile production in 2022 and 2023. Continuing this trend, the Asia region will dominate the market in the forecast period.

Further, China is the most dominant nation in automotive industry with respect to supplying raw materials, manufacturing as well as its sales. China has the most powerful supply chain of EV batteries. Over 50% of the EV batteries are manufactured in China. Moreover, around 75% of the components of EV batteries are manufactured in China. These Chinese manufacturers are looking to expand their services and acquire additional market share around the world. For instance, in September 2023, a leading Chinese EV battery manufacturer, Gotion, has announced to invest $2 billion to setup EV lithium battery plant in Illinois, US. In addition, western automakers are adopting strategies in collaboration with Chinese players to manufacture batteries. For instance, in May 2023, Ford announced a collaboration with CATL to set up a EV battery plant in Michigan, US by investing $3.5 billion, which will be operational by 2026.

Furthermore, the market growth in Asia Pacific can be attributed to the high vehicle production and increased use of advanced electronics in Japan, South Korea, and China. The governments of these countries have recognized the growth potential of the automotive sector and have consequently undertaken various initiatives to encourage major OEMs to enter their domestic markets. Several global automobile manufacturers, such as Volkswagen (Germany), Mercedes Benz (Germany), and General Motors (US), have shifted their production plants to emerging economies in the region.

Research Coverage:

The market analysis encompasses the Future of Automotive Industry, focusing on the sales volume of both passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles. Additionally, it examines the developments that occurred in the automotive industry till 2030. The report delves into the trends propelling the automotive sector, analyzing factors that influence the industry till 2030. The study encompasses a broad range, including Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles and Electric Vehicles (EVs), autonomous vehicles, 5G connectivity in cars, smart manufacturing, shared mobility, online sales of vehicles, powertrains, manufacturing platforms and others automotive related future technologies. Geographically, the report covers North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Rest of the World.

Report Scope

The report will help the market leaders/new entrants in this market with information on the technologies that are predected to drive the automotive industry in future. This report will help stakeholders understand the competitive landscape and gain more insights to position their businesses better and to plan suitable go-to-market strategies. The report also helps stakeholders understand the pulse of the market and provides them with information on key market drivers, restraints, challenges, and opportunities.

The report provides insights on the following pointers:

• Analysis of key Trends in 2023 till 2030 (Electrification, Rise of 5G, Connected Cars, Smart Manufacturing etc).
• Product Development/Innovation: Detailed insights on upcoming technologies, research & development activities, and new product & service launches in the automotive market
• Market Development: Comprehensive information about lucrative markets - the report analyses the automotive market across varied regions
• Market Diversification: Exhaustive information about diversification of supply chains, untapped geographies, recent developments, and investments in the automotive market
• Competitive Assessment: Assessment of market shares, growth strategies and service offerings of leading players like across passenger and commercial vehicle segments which are then dirther divided into ICE and electric among others in the automotive market strategies. The report also helps stakeholders understand the pulse of the autonomous vehicle market and provides them information on key market drivers, challenges, and opportunities.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. RESEARCH SCOPE, OBJECTIVES & METHODOLOGY

• 2.1 STUDY OBJECTIVES & METHODOLOGY
• 2.2 STUDY SCOPE

3. OVERARCHING TRENDS

• 3.1 FUTURE OF AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY: OVERARCHING TRENDS
• 3.2 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SALES (PV + LCV + MHCV) AND GDP GROWTH: 1980 TO 2030
• 3.3 AUTOMOTIVE VEHICLE PARC AND GROWTH IN AVERAGE AGE OF VEHICLES
• 3.4 GROWING MIDDLE CLASS AND GEN Z POPULATION TO DRIVE FUTURE SALES
• 3.5 CONNECTED, AUTONOMOUS, SHARED AND ELECTRIC (CASE): GROWTH IN PENETRATION
• 3.6 BABY BUST ECONOMIES: EMERGING ECONOMIES TAKING OVER ADVANCED ECONOMIES
• 3.7 AUTOMOTIVE SALES: NEXT WAVE OF GROWTH FROM EMERGING ECONOMIES
• 3.8 TOP 20 AUTOMOTIVE OEM GROUPS
• 3.9 CHANGES IN AUTOMOTIVE PLATFORMS

4. FUTURE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND BATTERY TECHNOLOGY

• 4.1 SUMMARY
• 4.2 ELECTRIC VEHICLES: BEV LIGHT VEHICLE SALES TIPPING POINT
• 4.3 PHASING OUT OF ICE VEHICLES
• 4.4 ELECTRIFICATION WILL CHANGE AUTOMAKERS AND THE VALUE CHAIN
• 4.5 ELECTRIFICATION TO CHANGE THE MANUFACTURING PROCESSES
• 4.6 SHIFT IN 'PLATFORM' DRIVING EV MANUFACTURING SHIFTS
• 4.7 BATTERY CAPACITY ANALYSIS
• 4.8 CHARGING PERFORMANCE
• 4.9 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY: BATTERY TECHNOLOGY MATURITY CURVE AND TIMELINES
• 4.10 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY: BATTERY THERMAL MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGIES AND SSB
• 4.11 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY: EV BATTERY PACKAGING SOLUTIONS
• 4.12 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY: ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERY PRICES
• 4.13 POWER ELECTRONICS: INDUSTRY SHIFTING TOWARDS SIC + GAN BUT SPECIFIC TO APPLICATION REQUIREMENTS
• 4.14 ELECTRIC MOTORS
• 4.15 EV BATTERY 4R ECOSYSTEM

5. FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES

• 5.1 SUMMARY
• 5.2 FUTURE OF DIGITAL CONNECTED LIVING
• 5.3 CONNECTED LIVING ECOSYSTEM IN CONTEXT OF A CAR
• 5.4 DIGITAL CONNECTED LIVING SERVICES: TAM FOR MOBILITY INDUSTRY
• 5.5 CONNECTED FEATURES IN FUTURE CARS
• 5.1 IN-VEHICLE EXPERIENCE AND TAILOR-MADE DIGITAL EXPERIENCE
• 5.6 SOFTWARE-DEFINED FRAMEWORK
• 5.7 OEM DIGITAL COCKPIT PROGRAM OVERVIEW
• 5.8 HARDWARE/EE ARCHITECTURE EVOLUTION TO SUPPORT SDV
• 5.9 SOFTWARE DEFINED VEHICLES (SDV)
• 5.10 DATA MONETIZATION AVENUES
• 5.11 5G IN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY: USE CASES
• 5.12 GENERATIVE AI TO HAVE MULTIFACETED IMPACT ON THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

6. FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

• 6.1 SUMMARY
• 6.2 AUTONOMOUS WORLD
• 6.3 AUTOMATED DRIVING LEVELS
• 6.4 SENSOR FOCUS
• 6.5 TECHNOLOGY STACK FOR PASSENGER CARS
• 6.6 OEM AUTOMATED DRIVING OFFERING BY REGION
• 6.7 OEM FOCUS
• 6.8 AUTONOMOUS DRIVING: FEATURES MAPPING
• 6.9 L4 OVERVIEW
• 6.10 AUTOMATED DRIVING MARKET FORECASTS
• 6.11 AUTONOMOUS DRIVING: KEY TAKEAWAYS

7. FUTURE OF POWERTRAIN

• 7.1 SUMMARY
• 7.2 FUTURE POWERTRAIN MIX
• 7.3 SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY ROADMAP - PORTFOLIO OF SOLUTIONS BASED ON USE CASES AND APPLICATIONS
• 7.4 E-MOBILITY POWERTRAIN DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP - ACCELERATED ADOPTION OF ASSET-LIGHT MODELS
• 7.5 POWERTRAIN PLATFORM OF THE FUTURE - EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT OPTIONS FOR OEMS
• 7.6 OEM 2030 POWERTRAIN STRATEGIES

8. FUTURE OF SHARED MOBILITY AND AUTOMOTIVE CHANNELS

• 8.1 SUMMARY
• 8.2 MULTI-MODAL MOBILITY AND 15-MINUTE CITIES
• 8.3 RISE IN PURPOSE-BUILT VEHICLES AS WELL AS CARGO VEHICLES
• 8.4 DIGITAL PRE-BUYING EXPERIENCE AND AMAZONIFICATION OF CAR SALES

9. ABOUT MARKETSANDMARKETS

10. LEGAL DISCLAIMER