隨著5G寒冬到來，電信廠商應對市場重大變化：營運商支出疲軟推動廠商整合和營運審查、開放RAN佔據主導地位、雲端需求推動聯盟

2023年，電信網路基礎設施供應商收入每年下降9.2%，至2118億美元，為2014年以來的最大降幅。這一下降反映了美國、中國和歐洲部分地區等主要市場在密集投資後完成了 5G 建設。隨著營運商在經濟放緩和高利率的情況下縮減支出，營運商面臨資本限制和供應商市場日益增加的壓力。

地緣政治緊張局勢也擾亂了供應鏈和市場准入，尤其是出於安全考慮而影響到華為和中興通訊等供應商。隨著營運商重新評估供應商合作夥伴關係以確保與國家安全優先事項保持一致，這些課題正在進一步改變市場動態。此外，AWS、GCP 和 Azure 等網路規模雲端供應商的崛起正在透過雲端遷移、人工智慧整合和進階自動化來改變通訊基礎設施，為傳統供應商帶來競爭威脅和合作機會。

2024 年供應商市場的前景好壞參半，營運商資本支出預計下降，經濟壓力持續，這可能會惡化上半年的收入前景。由於寬頻擴張和有利於非中國供應商的監管轉變，北美和​​歐洲的區域趨勢顯示出成長潛力。不過，這些或許並不能完全抵銷上半年的挫折。預計從2025年開始將出現顯著成長，雖然很有可能從2024年開始下降，但不會像2023年年減9.2%那麼嚴重。

本報告分析了 2024 年中期電信業對網路基礎設施解決方案（硬體、軟體和服務）的需求。我們涵蓋了支出增加的前景、供應商的市場動態以及供應商應對當前市場環境應採取的策略。

提及的公司

目錄

• 摘要
• 主要市場5G建設結束以及宏觀經濟不確定性，供應商市場陷入動盪
• 由於雲端供應商的崛起、市場整合、供應商審查和開放 RAN 的推動，市場動態正在發生變化
• 供應商市場的前景好壞參半：2024 年上半年很困難，但 2024 年下半年可能會有所改善。
• 附錄

This brief analyzes demand for network infrastructure solutions (hardware, software, and services) in the telecommunications (telco) industry as of mid-2024. The brief addresses prospects for spending growth, vendor market share dynamics, and what strategies vendors should pursue to cope with the current market environment.

The telecom vendor market is navigating a turbulent landscape shaped by significant shifts and challenges. In 2023, telco network infrastructure (telco NI) vendor revenues declined sharply, down 9.2% annually to $211.8 billion, marking the steepest drop at least since 2014. This downturn reflects the completion of 5G buildouts in major markets like the US, China, and parts of Europe, following a period of intense investment. As telcos scale back spending amid economic slowdowns and high interest rates, operators face capital constraints, intensifying vendor market pressures.

Adding to the complexity are geopolitical tensions disrupting supply chains and market access, notably impacting vendors like Huawei and ZTE, due to security concerns. These challenges have prompted telcos to reevaluate vendor partnerships to ensure alignment with national security priorities, further reshaping market dynamics. Meanwhile, the rise of webscale cloud providers - AWS, GCP, and Azure - is transforming telecom infrastructure through cloud migration, AI integration, and advanced automation, posing both competitive threats and partnership opportunities for traditional vendors.

The top three telco NI vendors remain the same as for the last few years: Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia, with aggregate share totaling just under 38%, unchanged from 2022. Despite this apparent stability, significant market shifts are unfolding. These shifts, sparked by a downturn in telco spending, include vendor consolidation illustrated by Broadcom's acquisition of VMware, HPE-Juniper, and Nokia-Infinera; alongside operational restructuring and widespread layoffs across the industry. Additionally, cloud providers are reshaping the vendor landscape by offering cloud-based telecom solutions, albeit with modest market share gains. Another notable shift is the push for Open RAN adoption by established vendors and telcos who are increasingly embracing open architectures supported by substantial government investments. Developments such as AT&T's partnership with Ericsson and Deutsche Telekom's collaboration with Nokia reflect growing momentum towards open, interoperable networks, albeit with integration challenges and slower-than-expected uptake among brownfield operators.

Looking ahead, the vendor market faces a mixed outlook for 2024, with projected telco capex declines and ongoing economic pressures likely to dampen revenue prospects in the first half. Regional developments in North America and Europe offer pockets of growth potential, driven by broadband expansion and regulatory shifts favoring non-Chinese vendors. But these may not fully offset the first-half setbacks. Substantial gains are projected from 2025 onward, indicating that while 2024 is likely to decline, it won't be as severe as 9.2% YoY drop in 2023.

Companies mentioned:

Table of Contents

• Summary
• Vendor market roils as 5G buildouts end in key markets amid macroeconomic uncertainty
• Market dynamics shift amid cloud providers' rise, market consolidation, vendor overhaul, and Open RAN push
• Mixed outlook for vendor market as challenging 1H24 may potentially improve in 2H24
• Appendix

Figures:

• Figure 1: Annualized Telco NI vendor revenues ($B) vs. YoY annualized sales growth (%)
• Figure 2: Annualized market share of top 5 vendors in the telco vertical, 4Q19-4Q23
• Figure 3: Annualized vendor revenues ($B) in telco vertical, 4Q19-4Q23

Tables:

• Table 1: Outlook commentary for select key vendors