最大電信廠商（2024年第一季）：儘管華為業績強勁，但廠商營收年減8.1%，下半年預計緩慢復甦

The goal of this report series is to equip telecom industry decision-makers with a comprehensive view of spending trends and vendor market power in their industry. To do this we assess technology vendors' revenues in the telecom vertical, across a wide range of company types and technology segments. We call this market "telco network infrastructure", or "Telco NI." This study tracks 134 Telco NI vendors, providing revenue and market share estimates for the 1Q13-1Q24 period. Of these 134 vendors, 110 are actively selling to telcos; most others have been acquired by other companies in the database. For instance, ADVA is now part of Adtran, but both companies remain in the database because of historic sales.

VISUALS

Below are the key highlights of the report:

• Revenues: Telco NI vendor revenues were $48.6B in 1Q24 and $208.3B for the annualized 1Q24 period overall, down 8.1% and 9.7% on a YoY basis, respectively. Excluding Huawei, the total market declined by 10.5% in the latest single quarter and by 10.7% in annualized 1Q24 on a YoY basis. After many disappointing quarters, Huawei appears to have turned a corner in the latest two quarters.
• Top vendors: The top three Telco NI vendors remain the usual trio: Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia. They account for 37.4% of the total market in annualized 1Q24, or 34.1% in 1Q24 alone. ZTE and China Comservice have been jostling for the 4th and 5th positions since early 2019.
• Key vendors by YoY revenue growth: The top three vendors, in terms of YoY revenue growth, are common to both single quarter and annualized 1Q24: Tejas Networks, Broadcom, and Alphabet. Broadcom's jump is due largely to the acquisition of VMWare, which closed in Nov 2023.
• Spending outlook: Per our latest official forecast, we expect telco capex - the main driver of the Telco NI market - to dip from $315B in 2023 to between $295B-$305B. Capex will start to rise again in a couple of years, reaching $331B in 2028. The spending outlook for the US market is appealing in the short-term due to government funding (BEAD and RDOF).

COVERAGE:

Companies Listed:

Table of Contents

1. Report Highlights

2. SUMMARY - Results commentary

3. Telco NI Market - Latest Results

4. TOP 25 VENDORS - Printable tearsheets

5. CHARTS - Single vendor snapshot

6. CHARTS - 5 vendor comparisons

7. R&D spending by vendors

8. RAW DATA - revenue estimates by company

9. Methodology & Assumptions

10. ABOUT - MTN Consulting

List of Figures (Partial)

• Annualized Telco NI vendor revenues ($B) vs. YoY growth in annualized sales
• YoY growth in annualized Telco NI market, with and without Huawei figures
• All vendors, YoY growth in single quarter sales
• Telco NI vendor revenues by company type, TTM basis (US$B)
• Telco NI revenues by company type: YoY % change
• Telco NI revenue split: Services vs. HW/SW
• Telco NI sales of top 10 vendors vs. all others, 1Q24 TTM (annualized)
• Top 25 vendors based on annualized Telco NI revenues through 1Q24 ($B)
• Top 25 vendors based on Telco NI revenues in 1Q24 ($B)
• Key vendors' annualized share of Telco NI market
• Telco NI market share changes, 1Q24 TTM vs. 1Q23 TTM
• Telco NI annualized revenue changes, 1Q24 vs. 1Q23
• YoY growth in Telco NI revenues (1Q24)
• Top 25 vendors in Telco NI Hardware/Software: Annualized 1Q24 Revenues (US$B)
• Top 25 vendors in Telco NI Services: Annualized 1Q24 Revenues (US$B)
• R&D spending as a percent of revenues for key telco-focused vendors (1Q22-1Q24)