氫內燃機和中重型卡車市場

到2034年，配備氫內燃機傳動系統的全球重型卡車市場預計將達到41,081輛。該細分市場預計在10年預測期內年複合成長率為44.5%，包括公路運輸（OTR）、配送以及收集和交付（配送/C&D）、重型和職業領域。

中型重型（MHD）卡車產業脫碳的努力導致眾多傳動系統選項的開發，以取代傳統的柴油內燃機（D-ICE）。雖然純電動車（BEV）一直是市場興趣和 OEM 研發預算的主要焦點，但支持者也提倡將氫作為脫碳的一種手段。氫作為一種減排途徑主要以燃料電池汽車（FCV）為前提，但人們對在用於MHD 的內燃機汽車中使用氫的興趣日益濃厚，這鼓勵了商用車價值鏈中的所有利益相關者，這對托運人、監管機構的潛在影響和投資者。

本報告研究了2025年至2034年預測期間的全球氫內燃機和中重型卡車市場。發布整體市場預測、基於數量和收入的細分市場預測、以及依車輛尺寸（中型/大型）和業務（長途、配送、高要求工作、職業）細分的銷售預測。

目次

第1章 執行摘要

第2章 市場問題

• 簡介
• 促進要因
• 抑制要因
• 價格

第3章 產業價值鏈

• 競合情勢
  • 併購活動
  • 商業模式的演變

第4章 市場預測

• 範圍
• 調查方法
• 限制
• 主要假設
• 預測

第5章 結論/建議

第6章 首字母縮寫詞和縮寫詞列表

第7章 目次

第8章 圖表

第9章 研究範圍、資訊來源與研究方法、註

The drive to decarbonize the medium and heavy duty (MHD) truck industry has led to the development of numerous driveline options to replace conventional diesel internal combustion engines (D-ICE). While the greatest focus in both market interest and OEM R&D budgets has been on battery electric vehicles (BEVs), advocates have also promoted hydrogen as a means of decarbonization. While hydrogen as an emissions reduction pathway has been mainly predicated on fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), the increasing interest in using hydrogen to power adapted ICE engines for MHDs could have an effect on all stakeholders in the commercial vehicle value chain, shippers, regulators, and investors.

This report looks at the global market for hydrogen-ICE (H2-ICE) MHD trucks during the forecast period 2025-2034. It provides forecasts for the overall market, segmented by units and revenue, and unit sales forecasts segmented by vehicle size (medium duty and heavy duty) and task (long-haul, distribution, harsh duty, and vocational).

Guidehouse Insights projects that the global market for heavy duty trucks powered by H2-ICE drivelines will reach 41,081 units by 2034. This segment, which is expected to experience a 44.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the ten-year forecast period, includes the over-the-road (OTR), distribution and collection and delivery (distribution/C&D), harsh duty, and vocational segments.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Drivers
  • 2.2.1 Regional Regulation
    • 2.2.1.1 North America
    • 2.2.1.2 Europe
    • 2.2.1.3 Asia Pacific
    • 2.2.1.4 Latin America and Mercosur
  • 2.2.2 Local Regulation
  • 2.2.3 Incentivizes
  • 2.2.4 Aftermarket Revenue
  • 2.2.5 Sustainability and Environmental, Social, and Governance Considerations
  • 2.2.6 Regulatory and Residual Value Future Proofing
  • 2.2.7 Technical Familiarity
  • 2.2.8 Vehicle Weight and Range
• 2.3 Barriers
  • 2.3.1 Infrastructure
  • 2.3.2 Vehicle Packaging
  • 2.3.3 Cost and Total Cost of Ownership Considerations
  • 2.3.4 Driver Acceptance
  • 2.3.5 Repair and Maintenance Provision and Access
  • 2.3.6 Funding Access and Residual Value Concerns
• 2.4 Pricing

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
  • 3.1.1 Merger & Acquisition Activities
  • 3.1.2 Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1 Scope
• 4.2 Methodology
• 4.3 Limitations
• 4.4 Key Assumptions
• 4.5 Forecasts
  • 4.5.1 Heavy Duty H2-ICE
  • 4.5.2 Medium Duty H2-ICE
  • 4.5.3 OTR MHD H2-ICE Trucks
  • 4.5.4 Distribution/C&D MHD H2-ICE Truck Sales
  • 4.5.5 Harsh Duty MHD H2-ICE Trucks
  • 4.5.6 Vocational MHD H2-ICE

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 5.2 Recommendations
  • 5.2.1 Regulators
  • 5.2.2 OEMs
  • 5.2.3 Fleets
• 5.3 Conclusion

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes