數位世界中紙幣的未來（至2029年）

主要事實

• 非接觸式數位支付的使用在全球各經濟體中持續快速成長，而全球流通的貨幣數量也逐年成長，目前估計已達到 40 兆美元。
• 目前流通的紙幣超過 5,500億張，代表 180 種世界貨幣。

全球新鈔產量持續成長，2019年至2024年的年複合成長率為 3.7%。儘管全球銷售點（POS）現金的使用量十多年來一直在下降，但這一情況仍然沒有改善。在許多國家，現金仍然是銷售點交易的重要手段，對於估計有 17億無法獲得銀行服務的人來說，現金是首選或必要的支付方式。

現金比其他支付方式更具優勢，因為它方便、可靠且匿名。在全球不確定時期，人們總是試圖為意外情況做好準備，對現金的需求就會增加。

隨著農村地區銀行關閉和 ATM 網路萎縮，一些國家取得現金變得越來越困難。一些零售商堅持只接受數位支付，迫使政府介入，使接受現金支付成為一項法律義務。

本報告研究了數位世界中紙幣的狀況，提供了有關關鍵驅動因素和趨勢、紙幣和數位支付的技術進步以及貨幣行業監管的資訊。

目錄

執行摘要

簡介及研究方法

關鍵驅動因素與趨勢

• 簡介
• 現金的功能
  • 現金支付的優勢
  • 現金支付的缺點
• 數位化與數位貨幣
• 金融包容性
• 危機時期的現金需求
• 紙鈔悖論
• 衡量現金使用情況
• 實體貨幣的未來

紙鈔與數位支付的技術進步

• 簡介
• 鈔票技術
  • 安全級別
• 安全功能
  • DOVID
  • iPrint 製程防偽油墨
  • 安全線
  • 浮水印
  • 標記物
  • 其他
• 數位化與數位貨幣
  • 物聯網
  • 工業 4.0
  • 行動支付/數位錢包
    • QR Code
    • M-Pesa
• 數位貨幣
  • 加密貨幣
    • 加密貨幣的優勢
    • 加密貨幣的缺點
  • 穩定幣
  • 中央銀行數位貨幣（CBDC）
  • 分散式帳本技術
    • 區塊鏈

貨幣產業的法規

• 簡介
• 關於取得現金和接受付款的法規
  • 歐洲
    • 歐盟
    • 英國
  • 北美洲
    • 美國
  • 亞洲
    • 中國
  • 其他地區
• 數位貨幣監管
  • 中央銀行數位貨幣
  • 加密資產
    • 歐盟加密資產監管市場（MiCA）
    • 英國
    • 美國
    • 亞洲
• 反洗錢/打擊資助恐怖主義（AML/CFT）
  • 加密貨幣與反洗錢/反恐怖主義融資

現金循環的未來

• 概述
• 付款趨勢
  • 銷售點交易
  • 電子商務
• 現金供應鏈
  • 中央銀行
  • 商業銀行
    • ATM 的未來
  • 現金運輸
  • 流通中的貨幣
• 現金循環還有未來嗎？

地理市場與預測：依地區

• 概述
• 歐洲
  • 歐元區
    • 德國
    • 法國
    • 西班牙
  • 英國
  • 斯堪的納維亞
• 北美洲
  • 美國
  • 加拿大
• 拉丁美洲
  • 墨西哥
  • 巴西
  • 阿根廷
  • 巴哈馬
  • 牙買加
• 亞洲
  • 中國
    • 香港
  • 印度
• 澳洲
• 中東和非洲

Key facts:

• While the use of digital forms of contactless payments continue to grow rapidly in economies around the world, the global currency-in-circulation also continues to grow year-on-year and currently stands at an estimated $40 trillion.
• Over 550 billion banknotes from 180 recognised global currencies are currently in circulation.

The production of new banknotes continues to grow globally, 3.7% CAGR during 2019-24. This comes despite the use of cash for point of sale (POS) payments declining globally for over a decade. Cash remains an important method for POS transactions in many countries, through preference or by necessity for the estimated 1.7 billion people who do not have access to banking facilities.

Cash retains an advantage over other forms of payment in that it is convenient, reliable and anonymous. Periods of global uncertainty have invariably seen an increased demand for cash as people look to protect against unforeseen emergencies.

Closures of local branches of banks and a shrinking network of ATMs is making access to cash more difficult in some countries. Some retailers are insisting on payment by digital methods only and governments are having to intervene to make the acceptance of cash payments a legal obligation.

Key Questions:

• Is the world heading towards a cashless society or will cash retain an important role in payment transactions well into the future?
• What technologies are being utilised by central banks to introduce new and more secure banknotes and combat the efforts of counterfeiters?
• How are developments in central bank digital currencies creating challenges that could impact the future of physical cash?

This report is essential to:

• Organisations active in the printing and distribution of cash
• Payment technology suppliers
• Central banks, state printers and mints

Table of Contents

Executive summary

Introduction and methodology

• Introduction
• Report scope
• Report objective
• Methodology
• Definitions
  • List of abbreviations

Key drivers and trends

• Introduction
• The functions of cash
  • Advantages of cash payments
  • Disadvantages of cash payments
• Digitalisation and digital currency
• Financial inclusion
• Demand for cash in times of crisis
• The paradox of banknotes
• Measuring the use of cash
• The future of physical currency

Technological advancements in banknotes and digital payments

• Introduction
• Banknote technologies
  • Levels of security
• Security features
  • DOVIDs
  • iPrint process & security inks
  • Security threads
  • Watermarking
  • Taggants
  • Others
• Digitalisation and digital currencies
  • Internet of Things
  • Industry 4.0
  • Mobile payments/digital wallets
    • QR codes
    • M-Pesa
• Digital currencies
  • Cryptocurrencies
    • Cryptocurrency advantages
    • Cryptocurrency disadvantages
  • Stablecoins
  • Central bank digital currencies (CBDC)
  • Distributed ledger technology
    • Blockchain

Regulations in the currency industry

• Introduction
• Regulations on the access to cash and its acceptance for payments
  • Europe
    • European Union
    • United Kingdom
  • North America
    • USA
  • Asia
    • China
  • Rest of the World
• Regulations on digital currencies
  • CBDCs
  • Crypto assets
    • Markets on Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), European Union
    • United Kingdom
    • USA
    • Asia
• Anti-money laundering and combating the finance of terrorism (AML/CFT)
  • Cryptocurrency and AML/CFT

The future of cash cycles

• Overview
• Payment trends
  • POS transactions
  • e-Commerce
• Cash supply chains
  • Central banks
  • Commercial banks
    • The future of ATMs
  • Cash-in-transit
  • Currency-in-circulation
• Does the cash cycle have a future?

Geographic markets and forecasts by region

• Overview
• Europe
  • The eurozone
    • Germany
    • France
    • Spain
  • United Kingdom
  • Scandinavia
• North America
  • USA
  • Canada
• Latin America
  • Mexico
  • Brazil
  • Argentina
  • The Bahamas
  • Jamaica
• Asia
  • China
    • Hong Kong
  • India
• Australia
• Middle East and Africa

List of Figures

• Share of unbanked adults by country, 2021
• Number of cashless transactions by region 2018 to 2021, with forecasts from 2022 to 2026 (billions)
• Number of m-PESA customers in Africa, 2017 to 2023 (millions)
• Median annual growth rates by value of banknotes in circulation, 2012 to 2022
• Banknote printing process
• New banknote launched in Japan in July 2024
• Banknote security features 2019, 2024 & 2029 ($ million)
• Green LongLife RollingStar-R Hologram Micromirror LEAD Mix, Louisenthal
• Rapid Vision security threads
• Polymer banknotes embedded with ASSURE taggant
• CINEMA promotional house note
• Mobile payments app adoption rates by country
• Mobile payments users by app
• Number of countries and currency unions exploring CBDC, July 2024
• Central Bank digital currencies status - July 2024
• Distributed ledger technology vs centralised ledger
• Three stages of money laundering
• Total cryptocurrency value laundered by year, 2017 to 2021 ($ billion)
• The stages of the cash cycle
• Global POS payment methods, 2023 and 2027f (transaction value %)
• Cash POS transaction value 2023 vs 2019, selected countries
• Bank offices in euro area, 2008-2023 (bank offices per 100,000 inhabitants)
• US net closings by banks, 2013 to 2023
• Smart ATM
• Currency in Circulation, selected countries - 2015 to 2023 ($ billion)
• Banknote annual production by denomination (number of notes printed, millions)
• China - 2024 Lunar New Year Commemorative Note
• The pros and cons of a cashless society
• Banknote production, global - 2019 to 2029 (based on production value in $ million)
• Global cash transaction value, 2017 to 2027
• Adults with no bank account, share by country 2021
• Banknote demand by region, 2019 to 2024
• Number and value of euro banknotes in circulation, 2010 to 2023
• Share of payment instruments used at the POS in terms of number and value of transactions, 2016-2022, Euro Area
• Euro Area: Share of Payment Instruments in Point-of-Sale (POS) Transactions by country, 2022
• Euro Area: Sources of Cash Withdrawals by country, 2022
• France: Shares of payment instruments at point-of-sale by transaction volume
• Germany: Shares of payment instruments by transaction volume and by transaction value, 2023
• Germany: Sources of Cash Withdrawals, 2022
• Spain: Share of POS payment instruments by number and value of transactions, 2022
• Main payment method in Spain by age (2023)
• Spain, distance to closest cash access point, 2023
• POS payment methods, share of transaction value, 2022
• Volume of GBP banknotes in circulation, 201to 202 (millions)

List of Tables

• SWOT analysis of physical currency
• SWOT analysis of digitalisation and digital currency
• Global Financial Inclusion Index 2023
• Levels of banknote security
• Main types of holographic nanostructure origination techniques
• Summary of regulations affecting currency markets
• CIT cash distribution models
• Top 10 most unbanked countries
• Euro production by country by denomination
• Number of cash access points in UK by type and region