市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1476367
2030 年貴金屬市場預測:按產品、應用、最終用戶和地區分類的全球分析Precious Metal Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Product, Application, End User and By Geography |
根據Stratistics MRC的數據,2023年全球貴金屬市場規模將達到2,635億美元,預計2030年將達到4,879億美元,預測期內複合年成長率為9.2%。
貴金屬市場透過多種管道運作,包括商品交易所、商店市場和實體裸金屬交易商。貴金屬需求受到經濟穩定性、地緣政治緊張局勢、通貨膨脹和貨幣波動等多種因素的影響。投資者經常轉向貴金屬來對沖通貨膨脹和經濟不確定性,因為它們被視為價值儲存手段。此外,貴金屬因其稀有性、耐用性和工業用途而具有內在價值。
根據美國地質調查局的數據,截至2022年12月,墨西哥生產了6,300噸白銀,其次是秘魯,生產了3,100噸。
工業領域持續成長
工業擴張將推動對金、銀和鉑等貴金屬的需求增加,因為它們對於電子、汽車製造和可再生能源技術等各種工業應用至關重要。隨著工業的蓬勃發展,對這些金屬的需求也隨之增加,市場需求保持穩定並經常增加。此外,工業成長預示著經濟繁榮,這增強了投資者對貴金屬作為避險資產的信心,往往會進一步推高貴金屬價格。
貨幣波動
貨幣波動會造成不確定性和波動性,進而影響貴金屬市場。例如,如果美國相對於其他貨幣升值,以美元計價的黃金價格往往會下跌,因為它對其他貨幣持有來說變得更昂貴。另一方面,如果美元貶值,金價可能會上漲,因為持有其他貨幣的投資者會發現黃金相對便宜。這種波動可能會阻止尋求穩定的投資者投資貴金屬市場。此外,貨幣波動也會影響貴金屬的生產和分銷成本,進一步影響市場動態。
通貨膨脹和通貨緊縮的預期
當投資者預期通膨時,他們會尋求黃金、白銀和鉑金等貴金屬來對沖法定貨幣價值下跌的風險。這些金屬被認為是價值儲存手段,可以在貨幣貶值期間保存財富。相反,在貨幣價值上漲和價格下跌的通貨緊縮時期,投資者可能會因其穩定性而轉向貴金屬作為避險資產。因此,通貨膨脹和通貨緊縮預期的變化可能會推動對貴金屬的需求並影響其價格。
地緣政治風險
雖然地緣政治緊張局勢歷來推動了對黃金和白銀等避險資產的需求,但它們也造成了限制市場趨勢的不確定性。衝突、貿易戰和政治動盪等地緣政治緊張局勢升級可能會導致對貴金屬的需求增加,因為投資者尋求對沖波動性和保值財富。但同樣的緊張局勢也可能導致經濟混亂,影響對白銀和鉑金等金屬的工業需求。然而,地緣政治事件會影響貨幣價值和利率,進而影響貴金屬價格。
最初,由於投資者尋求躲避股市波動和經濟不不確定性的避難所,疫情引發了對黃金和白銀等避險資產的需求激增。結果,隨著人們對這場流行病的經濟影響及其擾亂全球供應鏈的可能性的擔憂日益加劇,貴金屬價格飆升。然而,隨著世界各國政府實施經濟獎勵策略以及央行降低利率以緩衝危機的經濟影響,貴金屬價值出現波動。然而,大流行造成的採礦作業中斷和物流挑戰加劇了市場波動。
預計珠寶飾品業將在預測期內成為最大的行業
預計在預測期內,珠寶飾品業將成為最大的行業。這是因為這些金屬的內在價值和美學吸引力使它們成為製作裝飾物品的材料而受到追捧。珠寶飾品作為跨文化的價值儲存手段和財富象徵,進一步增強了其需求。此外,創新設計和不斷變化的消費者偏好透過引入新的趨勢和風格不斷推動市場成長。珠寶飾品市場的全球性確保了對貴金屬的穩定和多樣化的需求,有助於市場穩定。
化學品領域預估在預測期內複合年成長率最高
預計化學品領域在預測期內的複合年成長率最高。化學品對於透過浸出和溶劑萃取等技術從礦石和電子廢棄物中提取貴金屬至關重要。在提煉中,化學品用於將貴金屬精製至高純度並符合行業標準。此外,化學品透過為合金化、電鍍和表面處理製程提供解決方案,在珠寶飾品和電子元件等貴金屬產品的製造中發揮著至關重要的作用。化學技術的進步有助於提高效率、減少對環境的影響並尋找貴金屬的新用途,從而刺激市場成長和多元化。
在估計期間,亞太地區佔據最大的市場佔有率。印度和中國等國家對黃金和其他貴金屬的文化親和性歷來很強,並推動了持續的需求。該地區的經濟成長推動了中產階級的不斷壯大,可支配收入不斷增加,進一步鼓勵了對貴金屬的投資,將其作為保值手段和通膨對沖工具。此外,該地區作為製造地(尤其是電子產品和珠寶飾品中心)的地位有助於對金、銀和鉑等金屬的持續需求。亞太地區的強勁需求對全球價格產生了連鎖反應,放大了市場動態並吸引了投資者的關注,從而增加了全球貴金屬的流動性和市場深度。
預計亞太地區在估計期間將保持獲利成長。亞太地區的政府監管透過提供確保透明度、穩定性和投資者保護的框架,在加強貴金屬市場方面發揮著至關重要的作用。這些法規涵蓋各個方面,例如經銷商許可要求、純度和真實性檢驗標準以及打擊全部區域非法貿易行為的措施。透過執行嚴格的監管,世界各國政府正在建立投資者的信任和信心,並增加參與企業數量。此外,旨在遏制假冒和走私的地區性法規加強了貴金屬市場的完整性,使其成為更安全、更具吸引力的投資工具。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Precious Metal Market is accounted for $263.5 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $487.9 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 9.2% during the forecast period. It operates through various channels including commodity exchanges, over-the-counter markets, and physical bullion dealers. The demand for precious metals is influenced by various factors such as economic stability, geopolitical tensions, inflation, and currency fluctuations. Investors often turn to precious metals as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, as they are perceived as stores of value. Additionally, precious metals have intrinsic value due to their rarity, durability, and industrial applications.
According to the United States Geological Survey, Mexico's silver production was 6,300 metric tons, followed by Peru at 3,100 metric tons as of December 2022.
Consistent growth of the industrial sector
Industrial expansion drives increased demand for precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum due to their indispensable usage in various industrial applications, including electronics, automotive manufacturing, and renewable energy technologies. As industries flourish, so does the need for these metals, creating a steady and often growing market demand. Moreover, industrial growth signals economic prosperity, which tends to bolster investor confidence in precious metals as safe-haven assets, further driving up their prices.
Currency fluctuations
Currency fluctuations impact the precious metal market by creating uncertainty and volatility. For instance, if the value of the US dollar strengthens against other currencies, the price of gold, which is denominated in dollars, tends to decrease as it becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. Conversely, if the dollar weakens, gold prices may rise as it becomes relatively cheaper for investors holding other currencies. These fluctuations can deter investors from committing to the precious metal market, as they seek stability in their investments. Moreover, currency fluctuations also influence the cost of production and distribution of precious metals, further impacting their market dynamics.
Inflation and deflation expectations
When investors anticipate inflation, they seek to hedge against the diminishing value of fiat currency by turning to precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum, which have historically retained their worth over time. These metals are seen as stores of value that can preserve wealth during periods of currency devaluation. Conversely, during deflationary periods, where the value of currency rises and prices fall, investors may still turn to precious metals as a safe haven due to their perceived stability. Thus, fluctuations in inflation and deflation expectations can drive demand for precious metals, influencing their prices.
Geopolitical risks
While geopolitical tensions historically drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, they also introduce uncertainties that can constrain market movements. Heightened geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts, trade wars, or political instability, can trigger increased demand for precious metals as investors seek to hedge against volatility and preserve wealth. However, the same tensions can also lead to economic disruptions, affecting industrial demand for metals like silver and platinum. However, geopolitical events may impact currency values and interest rates, which in turn influence precious metal prices.
Initially, the pandemic sparked a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, as investors sought refuge from volatile stock markets and economic uncertainty. This led to a rapid increase in precious metal prices, driven by heightened concerns over the pandemic's economic fallout and its potential to disrupt global supply chains. However, as governments worldwide implemented stimulus measures and central banks slashed interest rates to mitigate the crisis's economic impact, the value of precious metals experienced fluctuations. However, pandemic-induced disruptions in mining operations and logistical challenges further contributed to market volatility.
The Jewelry segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
Jewelry segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period as the intrinsic value and aesthetic appeal of these metals make them sought-after materials for crafting adornments. Jewelry acts as a store of value and a symbol of wealth across cultures, further bolstering demand. Additionally, innovative designs and evolving consumer preferences continually spur market growth by introducing new trends and styles. The global nature of the jewelry market ensures a steady and diverse demand for precious metals, contributing to market stability.
The Chemicals segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Chemicals segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period. Chemicals are essential in the extraction of precious metals from ores and electronic waste through techniques like leaching and solvent extraction. In refining, chemicals are used to purify precious metals to high levels of purity, meeting industry standards. Additionally, chemicals are crucial in fabricating precious metal products, such as jewelry and electronic components, by providing solutions for alloying, plating, and surface treatment processes. Advancements in chemical technologies contribute to improving efficiency, reducing environmental impacts, and discovering new applications for precious metals, thereby stimulating market growth and diversification.
Asia Pacific region commanded the largest market share over the extrapolated period. The cultural affinity towards gold and other precious metals in countries like India and China has historically been strong, driving consistent demand. Economic growth in the region has fueled a burgeoning middle class with increased disposable income, further boosting investment in precious metals as a store of value and hedge against inflation. Moreover, the region's role as a manufacturing hub, particularly in electronics and jewelry, contributes to sustained demand for metals like gold, silver, and platinum. This robust demand from the Asia Pacific region has a ripple effect on global prices, amplifying market dynamics and attracting greater investor attention, thus enhancing liquidity and market depth for precious metals worldwide.
Asia Pacific region is projected to hold profitable growth during the estimated period. Government regulations in the Asia Pacific region are playing a pivotal role in enhancing the precious metal market by providing a framework that ensures transparency, stability, and investor protection. These regulations encompass various aspects such as licensing requirements for dealers, standards for purity and authenticity verification, and measures to combat illegal trading activities across the region. By enforcing stringent regulations, governments are fostering trust and confidence among investors, thereby attracting more participants to the market. Moreover, regulations in the region aimed at curbing counterfeiting and smuggling bolster the integrity of the precious metal market, making it a safer and more attractive investment avenue.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Precious Metal market include Anglo American Platinum Limited, AngloGold Ashanti Limited, Barrick Gold, Freeport-McMoRan, Gold Fields Limited, Impala Platinum Holdings Limited, Kinross Gold Corporation, Newcrest Mining Limited, Newmont Corporation and Randgold & Exploration Company Limited.
In July 2023, Barrick Gold disclosed the extension of the mine life for its Tongon gold project in Cote d'Ivoire. This decision comes as a result of the ongoing positive outcomes from gold exploration activities within the Nielle mining permit area.
In July 2023, K92 Mining Inc. announced the resumption of underground mining operations at the Kainantu Gold Mine in Papua New Guinea. The restart was conducted by a comprehensive restart plan prioritizing safety, following a tragic incident involving an underground vehicle. Notably, the impact on surface activities has been minimal, and surface stockpiles have undergone processing in the designated plant.
In June 2023, AnglogoldAshanti introduced a pioneering renewable energy initiative at the Tropicana Gold Mine, signifying a notable achievement in its commitment to carbon emissions reduction. In collaboration with Pacific Energy, AngloGold Ashanti Australia Ltd, is undertaking the construction and operation of an extensive 62MW solar and wind production capacity at the mine. This partnership aims to integrate renewable energy sources into the mine's power supply infrastructure, thereby reducing reliance on gas consumption.