首頁 > 市場調查報告書 > 材料

稀有金屬

市場調查報告書

商品編碼

1343614

全球電池用金屬鋰市場（～2030年）

<2023> Battery Lithium Metal Report (~2030)

出版日期: 2023年08月11日 | 出版商:

SNE Research | 英文 168 Pages | 商品交期: 請詢問到貨日

價格

簡介目錄

2022年11月，由於供應短缺，碳酸鋰價格上漲至50萬元/噸。針對前所未有的碳酸鋰價格，寧德時代向電動車整車廠提供每噸20萬元的碳酸鋰回饋。

然而，隨著中國電動車補貼削減的消息傳出以及電池製造商庫存增加，碳酸鋰的價格開始下跌，截至2023年4月暴跌至15萬元/噸。

隨著電動車時代的到來，二次電池佔鋰使用總量的比例將從2014年的40%增加到2023年的80%左右。因此，電動車市場越來越受到鋰市場變化的影響。然而，採礦市場的交貨時間長（挖掘和生產之間的週期）特徵使其難以滿足電動車市場成長對鋰的高需求。受此影響，鋰價波動加大，直接影響電動車製造商和二次電池製造商的利潤率。

目前，鋰礦開採僅在智利、澳洲等少數國家進行。然而，玻利維亞、伊朗、印度等國相繼宣布發現龐大新鋰礦床的消息，歐洲、非洲等多個國家也報告將開採鋰。 SNE Research預測，2030年鋰礦開採國家總數將達24個。

有關鋰礦發現的報告引發了人們的希望，即這些礦藏足以滿足電動車市場的需求，但這種假設是有缺陷的。勘探階段可商業開採的礦量僅有少量，實際開採需要5至10年的漫長週期。除了全球儲量的成長之外，鋰礦企業和礦場的實際供應情況也需要密切監控。二次電池市場供給預測與需求平衡是預測未來上游市場策略與價格波動的重要手段。

本報告針對全球電池用金屬鋰市場進行研究分析，提供整體市場狀況、各國政策策略、鋰金屬供需及價格預測等資訊。

中國鋰市場
- 碳酸鋰、氫氧化鋰產能
- 碳酸鋰產能：依地區劃分（2022 年）
- 氫氧化鋰產能：依地區劃分（2022 年）
- 碳酸鋰/氫氧化鋰進出口情形（2022年）
智利鋰市場
- 鋰專案：按地區劃分
- 碳酸鋰和氫氧化鋰出口
澳洲鋰市場
- 碳酸鋰和氫氧化鋰出口
- 主要鋰礦產區及項目
- 三大鋰礦公司
阿根廷鋰市場
- 鋰出口和主要進口國家
- 主要鋰礦產區及項目
巴西鋰市場
- 主要礦山和出口路線
- 三大鋰礦公司
津巴布韋的鋰市場
- 主要鋰項目

第 7 章鋰材料現況及供需展望（2021-2030）

二次電池需求預測
正極材料化學成分展望
鋰需求前景：以正極材料產品劃分
鋰需求前景：依行業劃分
主要電池製造商的 Lium 使用前景
- 韓國
- 中國
- 日本
- 美國
- 歐盟
鋰儲量（2023 年）
全球鋰供應
新增鋰礦開採國家（2022/2030 年）
全球鋰供應前景
鋰材料供需平衡
基於供需平衡的未來鋰供應情景，直至 2030 年
採礦業展望：依地區劃分
- 澳大利亞
- 中國
- 南美洲
- 北美
- 歐洲
- 非洲

第 8 章製造商如何確保鋰供應

世界電動車原始設備製造商
- GM
- Ford
- Stellantis
- Tesla
- Prime Planet Energy & Solutions, PPES
- Volkswagen
電池製造商
- Samsung SDI
- CATL
- BYD
- Northvolt

第 9 章鋰價分析

供應合約中鋰價格的結構
供應合約中的長期鋰價格
鹵水型與硬巖型加工成本比較
二次電池主要金屬材料價格走勢
碳酸鋰價格趨勢（2013-2023）
根據供需預測鋰價格（截至 2030 年）

第 10 章鋰礦開採：依國家

澳大利亞
智利
中國
玻利維亞
阿根廷
捷克語
印度

第 11 章原料廠商分析

Albemarle
SQM
Pilbara Minerals
Tianqi Lithium
Ganfeng Lithium

簡介目錄

Product Code: 205

In Nov 2022, the price of lithium carbonate rose to 500,000 yuan (about KRW 91,245,000) per ton due to shortage in supply. With such unprecedented price of lithium carbonate, CATL even offered lithium carbonate rebate of 200,000yuan (about KRW 36.5 million) per ton to electric vehicle OEMs.

However, the price of lithium carbonate began to fall as news has been spreading of China's reduced electric vehicle subsidies and increased inventory in battery manufacturers, and plunged to 150,000 yuan (about 27.37 million won) per ton as of Apr 2023.

With the advent of the electric vehicle era, the proportion of secondary batteries in the total lithium usage has increased from 40% in 2014 to about 80% in 2023. As such, the electric vehicle market has been increasingly influenced by the impact of changes in the lithium market. However, the long lead time (the time from mine excavation to production), the nature of the mining market, made it difficult to satisfy the increased lithium demand due to the growth of the electric vehicle market. As a result, volatility of lithium price is increasing and has direct impact on corporate margins of EV makers and secondary battery manufacturers.

Currently, lithium mining is taking place in a small number of countries, including Chile and Australia. However, news of discovery of huge amount of lithium deposits has been newly announced in countries such as Bolivia, Iran, and India, and several countries including Europe and Africa have reported that they will mine lithium. SNE Research predicts that there will be total 24 lithium mining countries in 2030.

Reports of the discovery of lithium mines are raising hopes that the deposits will fully meet the demand from the electric vehicle market, but there are errors in this assumption. Only a few mines are commercially viable in the stage of exploration, and there is long lead time of 5-10 years till actual mining. Apart from the increase in global reserves, the actual supply of the lithium mining companies and the mines should be closely monitored. The balance between supply forecast and demand in the secondary battery market will be an important means for future upstream market strategies and predicting price fluctuations.

This report describes the overall market status, policies and strategies by different countries, and prediction of supply, demand, and price for lithium metal. Especially, forecast of the lithium demand in this report provides specific figures for each battery manufacturer and each cathode material product. And also, the report forecasts lithium supply by considering the production volume of all mining projects. From these two figures, we create a model for demand-supply balance scenario and predict price till 2030.

We hope that the report will help readers understand the overall lithium metal industry and prepare for future fluctuations of lithium raw material by looking at the outlook provided by the insightful report of SNE Research.

The strong points of this report are;

Lithium production forecast and lithium policies of existing and new lithium mining countries till 2030

Outlook for how major battery manufacturers secure lithium and consumption of lithium till 2030

Outlook for chemical composition of cathode materials and lithium demand by product till 2030

^*LFP, Mid-Ni 523/622, High Ni NCM/NCMA Ni>80%, LCO, LCA, NMx, LMO, NCM 111/424.

A forecasting scenario of adjusted amount of lithium production based on supply and demand and the balance between supply and demand of lithium metal

Forecast of the lithium price based on processing cost and supply and demand in major mining countries till 2030

1. Overview of secondary batteries

1.1. What are secondary batteries?
1.2. Raw materials for secondary battery components
1.3. Cathode materials
- 1.3.1. Components
- 1.3.2. Content of major materials
- 1.3.3. Metal content (Kg/KWh)
- 1.3.4. Note) Mineral content per one electric vehicle

2. Overview of lithium metal

2.1. Overview of lithium
2.2. Applications and characteristics by product
- Note) Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
2.3. Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (Li2CO3,LCE)
2.4. Forms of natural deposit
2.5. Production ratio by ore type
2.6. Lithium usage ratio by industry

3. Lithium mining technology

3.1. Mining process - brine type
3.2. Mining process - hard-rock type
3.3. Technology development for lithium recovery
3.4. Process comparison of lithium extraction
- Note) Trends of recycling regulations in major countries
- Note) Risks of lithium ESG

4. Lithium policy by country

4.1. Lithium policy in China
4.2. Lithium policy in Central South America
- 4.2.1. Chile
- 4.2.2. Brazil
- 4.2.3. Argentina
- 4.2.4. Bolivia
- 4.2.5. Mexico
- Note) Latest lithium policy in Central South America
4.3. Lithium policy in Australia
4.4. Lithium policy in Europe
- 4.4.1. Portugal
- 4.4.2. UK
4.5. Lithium policy in Africa
- 4.5.1. Zimbabwe

5. Policy of major countries for key minerals

5.1. Lithium policy of major countries
5.2. Lithium policy of EU
5.3. Lithium policy of US
- Note) Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) & Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
5.4. Lithium policy of Japan
5.5. Lithium policy of Korea

6. Market status of major lithium producing countries

6.1. Lithium market in China
- 6.1.1. Production capacity of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
- 6.1.2. Capacity of production facilities of lithium carbonate by region (2022)
- 6.1.3. Capacity of production facilities of lithium hydroxide by region (2022)
- 6.1.4. Import/export of lithium carbonate/ lithium hydroxide in 2022
6.2. Lithium market in Chile
- 6.2.1. Lithium project by region
- 6.2.2. Export of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
6.3. Lithium market in Australia
- 6.3.1. Export of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
- 6.3.2. Major regions of lithium deposits and projects
- 6.3.3. 3 major mining companies for lithium
6.4. Lithium market in Argentina
- 6.4.1. Export of lithium and major import countries
- 6.4.2. Major areas of lithium deposits and projects
6.5. Lithium market in Brazil
- 6.5.1. Major mines and export route
- 6.5.2. 3 major mining companies for lithium
6.6. Lithium market in Zimbabwe
- 6.6.1. Major lithium projects

7. Status for lithium material and outlook for supply/demand (2021-2030)

7.1. Outlook for secondary battery demand
7.2. Outlook for chemical composition of cathode materials
7.3. Outlook for lithium demand by cathode material product
7.4. Outlook for lithium demand by industry
7.5. Outlook for lithium usage by major battery makers
- 7.5.1. Korea
- 7.5.2. China
- 7.5.3. Japan
- 7.5.4. US
- 7.5.5. EU
7.6. Lithium reserves (2023)
7.7. Global lithium supply
7.8. New lithium mining countries in 2022 and 2030
7.9. Outlook for global lithium supply
7.10. Balance of supply/demand of lithium material
7.11. Future lithium supply scenario till 2030 based on balance of supply and demand
7.12. Outlook for mining by region
- 7.12.1. Australia
- 7.12.2. China
- 7.12.3. South America
- 7.12.4. North America
- 7.12.5. Europe
- 7.12.6. Africa
- Note) Demand forecasting methodology
- Note) Mineral development lead time
- Note) Development status of lithium mine plants

8. How manufacturers secure lithium supply

8.1. Global EV OEMs
- 8.1.1. GM
- 8.1.2. Ford
- 8.1.3. Stellantis
- 8.1.4. Tesla
- 8.1.5. Prime Planet Energy & Solutions, PPES
- 8.1.6. Volkswagen
8.2. Battery manufacturers
- 8.2.3. Samsung SDI
- 8.2.4. CATL
- 8.2.5. BYD
- 8.2.6. Northvolt

9. Analysis of lithium price

9.1. Structure of lithium price in supply agreement
9.2. Long-term lithium price in supply agreement
9.3. Comparison of processing cost of brine type and hard-rock type
- Note) Cost comparison of major mines in Australia
- Note) Cost comparison of major salt lakes in China
- Note) Cost analysis of lithium extraction from spodumene and lepidolite in China
9.4. Price trends of major metal materials for secondary batteries
9.5. Price trends of lithium carbonate (2013-2023)
9.6. Outlook for lithium price as per supply/demand till 2030