DCSG（分類基地台網關）的全球市場（2023 年 12 月）

本報告調查了新興的 DCSG（分類基地台網關） (Disaggregated Cell Site Gateway) 市場。DCSG 是一款白盒蜂巢式基地台閘道或路由器，基於開放式分散式架構，適用於現有 2G/3G/4G 和 5G 網路。本報告分析了 DCSG 架構和實施，包括新興市場生態系統。本報告按地區（北美、歐洲/中東/非洲、亞太地區、加勒比海/拉丁美洲）追蹤白盒硬體銷售和軟體銷售。此外，它還包括全球蜂窩基地台總數以及未來五年的市場預測。這個市場仍處於起步階段，因此供應商尚未準備好公佈其市場佔有率。

本報告中收集和產生的所有數字（例如DCSG 單位和收入）均基於無線接入網絡(RAN)，這是一種新型分佈式網絡，用於收集、傳輸和路由進出蜂窩站點的移動流量。它與節點有關。

本報告涵蓋的公司包括Cisco、Ericsson、Juniper Networks、Nokia Networks等老牌電信網路設備供應商，以及 10 多家專業 NOS（網路作業系統）和白盒硬體公司。

目錄

概述

重點

新興DCSG市場：雖仍處於早期階段，但預計在即將到來的第二個5G週期中全面普及

• 到 2023 年，銷售額預計將達到 8,600 萬美元，其中硬體方面以 Edgecore 和 UfiSpace 為首，軟體方面以 Ciena 和 IP Infusion 為首。
  • Edgecore與 UfiSpace 引領硬體領域
  • NOS供應商中，Ciena和IP Infusion表現良好
• DCSG 停滯導致生態系統萎縮
  • 與此同時，Mavenir 憑藉其虛擬蜂窩基地台路由器進入了該領域。
• 2024年展望與長期前景光明
  • DCSG 產量不斷增加，佔全球現有產量的 19%（不包括中國）。
  • 由於中國明顯缺席，全球市場在區域之間更加平衡。
  • 5G 取代 CSG 將在整個預測期內繼續佔據主導地位。
  • 一旦 5G 普及，由於密度增加，新的 DCSG 添加階段將開始。
  • 然而，5G 用例最終將決定 DCSG 的添加速度。

通訊網路元素的去中心化：DCSG 將此視為重中之重，並將繼續這樣做。

• AT&T、TELEFONICA、VODAFONE：現在與未來去中心化的主要驅動力。
  • 然而，需要更多的 CSP 進入市場才能創造一個可行的 DCSG 市場。
  • 在世界許多地方，DCSG 無法與 CSG 競爭。
• 有些人稱之為蜂窩站點網關 (CSG)，有些人稱之為路由器：CSG 提供路由功能並滿足路由器的要求。
  • 此CSG存在於RAN和聚合路由器之間。
  • 將 DCSG 稱為白盒子顯然是一個強有力的主張。
  • 在某些時候，聚合路由器和核心路由器預計將成為下一個。
  • 一級 CSP 透過 TIP 支持和促進權力下放工作。
  • 消除供應商鎖定和 NOS 軟體的豐富性是 DCSG 的主要驅動力。
  • 此外，尋找中國供應商的硬體替代品的需求成為歐洲通訊服務提供者的第二個驅動因素。
• 傳統電信廠商：他們泰然自若，沒有受到威脅，按照自己的策略走得很好。
  • Cisco：2019年12月推出Silicon One和IOS XR7，維持領先。
  • Juniper Networks：將雲端原生路由器加入其廣泛的路由器產品組合中。
  • 忘記硬件，軟體才是王道。
  • 但所有人都認為，隨著 5G 已經達到臨界規模，DCSG 的可行性尚未得到證實。
  • RAN 架構和拓樸以及 5G 用例是需要考慮的重要因素。
  • Ericson：gNB 和小區站點都不承擔任何路由功能。
  • 3GPP 第 16 版：採用新的回程概念 IAB，消除了對 CSG/CSR 的需求。
  • 與 4G 相比，5G 毫米波改變了 CSG/CSR 的遊戲規則。
  • 畢竟，越去中心化，就越一體化。
  • Cisco表示：其大多數路由器客戶群將維持完全整合的模式。

This report explores the emergence of the Disaggregated Cell Site Gateways (DCSG) market. DCSG is a white-box cell site gateway or router based on an open and disaggregated architecture for existing 2G/3G/4G and 5G networks. This report analyzes DCSG architectures and implementations, including the emerging market ecosystem. It tracks white box hardware units and sales, and software sales, all broken down by regions: North America, Europe Middle East Africa, Asia Pacific, and Caribbean Latin America. The report provides the total number of cell sites worldwide and 5-year market forecasts. As this market is just emerging, it is too early to publish vendor market shares.

All numbers (e.g., DCSG units and sales) collected and generated in this report relate to the novel disaggregated network nodes that perform the collection, the transport and the routing of mobile traffic coming in and out of the cell site in a radio access network (RAN).

Companies covered in this report include more than a dozen NOS and white-box hardware specialists as well as established telecom network equipment vendors such as Cisco, Ericsson, Juniper Networks and Nokia Networks.

About the author:

Stephane Teral , Founder & Chief Analyst.

With over 35 years of experience in the telecommunications industry, including 28 years in Silicon Valley, Stephane Teral is regarded as one of the top analysts in his field, having been the trusted advisor at some of the world's largest telecom providers and manufacturers. He specializes in next-generation wireless infrastructure including 5G and 6G, network disaggregation and automation, cloud and quantum networking, programmable core networks and communications service provider digital transformation.

As an advisor to start-ups, service providers, vendors and the investment community, Stephane helps clients identify new market opportunities, conducts due diligence, and advises on positioning, product development, business plans and M&A. A highly sought thinker and speaker, Stephane is frequently quoted in prestigious publications such as The Economist, Nikkei Asia, Le Monde, Les Echos, L'Usine Nouvelle, Barron's, and The Wall Street Journal. He also chairs and presents at global industry events including Brooklyn 6G Summit, FYUZ, GSMA Mobile World Congress, OCP Regional Summit, and NGMN IC&E. Stephane has been a frequent expert judge for industry and technology innovation awards, such as the GSMA Global Mobile Awards (the GLOMOS), and the Layer123 World Congress.

Stephane founded TERAL RESEARCH in January 2023 after 2 years as a Chief Analyst at LightCounting, which he joined in May 2020, after serving as a Technology Fellow at IHS Markit where he was also rewarded with the 2016 Market Research Excellence Award. Previously, he spent 8 years as a principal analyst at Infonetics Research after starting his analyst career at RHK, where he developed the European optical coverage and helped carriers migrate from PSTN to next-generation networks. Prior to RHK, he was an R&D engineer and project manager with Alcatel where he deployed the CATV optical networks that allowed the 1992 Olympics and the grand opening of Euro Disney to be televised using fiber optics for the first time. Stephane is a McGowan Scholar at the McLaren School of Business of the University of San Francisco where he received his MBA with an emphasis in telecommunications. He holds an engineering degree in telecommunications from the Institut Polytechnique de Paris, France.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS

THE NASCENT DCSG MARKET REMAINS IN ITS INCIPIENT STAGES BUT WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OFF WITH THE UPCOMING 2ND 5G CYCLE

• 2023 POINTS TO $86M IN SALES LED BY EDGECORE AND UFISPACE FOR HARDWARE AND CIENA AND IP INFUSION FOR SOFTWARE
  • Edgecore and UfiSpace lead the hardware category
  • Among the NOS suppliers, Ciena and IP Infusion are thriving
• THE DCSG LULL SHRUNK THE ECOSYSTEM
  • Meanwhile, Mavenir has joined the party with a virtual cell site router
• 2024 AND THE LONG-TERM FORECAST ARE LOOKING UP
  • DCSG unit volumes are ramping up to account for 19% of the worldwide existing footprint, excluding China
  • The notable absence of China makes the worldwide market more balanced across regions
  • 5G-driven CSG replacement will remain predominant throughout the forecast period
  • Once 5G becomes ubiquitous, densification will trigger a phase of new DCSG addition
  • But ultimately, 5G use cases will dictate the DCSG addition rate

TELECOM NETWORK ELEMENT DISAGGREGATION STAYS A L'ORDRE DU JOUR WITH DCSG AT THE TOP OF THE AGENDA

• AT&T, TELEFONICA AND VODAFONE HAVE BEEN AND REMAIN THE MAJOR DRIVING DISAGGREGATION FORCE
  • But the market needs more CSPs to take the plunge and create a viable DCSG market
  • In many places in the world, the DCSG can't beat the CSG!
• SOME SAY CELL SITE GATEWAY, OTHER SAY ROUTER; OUR RESEARCH INDICATES CSG HAVE ROUTING CAPABILITIES AND FIT THE ROUTER BILL
  • These CSGs reside between the RAN and the aggregation router
  • Calling a DCSG a white box is an unambiguous strong statement
  • At some point, aggregation and core routers will be next
  • Tiers 1 CSPs support and through TIP, drive the disaggregation journey
  • The elimination of vendor lock in and the abundance of NOS software are the chief DCSG drivers
  • In addition, for European CSPs, the need to find hardware alternatives to Chinese vendors was a secondary driver
• UNFAZED AND UNTHREATENED, THE TRADITIONAL TELECOM VENDOR ESTABLISHMENT IS CHUGGING ALONG WITH THEIR OWN STRATEGY
  • With its Silicon One and IOS XR7 launched in December 2019, Cisco maintains its lead
  • Juniper Networks added a cloud-native router to its broad router portfolio
  • Forget the hardware, software is king
  • However, all agree that with 5G reaching critical mass, the viability of the DCSG remains to be proven
  • RAN architecture and topology and 5G use cases are the key factors for consideration
  • Ericsson neither envisions routing functionality at the gNB nor at the cell site
  • 3GPP Rel. 16 features IAB, a new backhaul concept that eliminates the need for CSGs/CSRs
  • Compared to 4G, 5G mmWave is a CSG/CSR game changer
  • And at the end of the day, the more disaggregation, the more integration
  • Cisco says a majority of its router customer base will stick with the fully integrated model