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無線基礎設施（2024年第4季、2024年度、2025年2月）
市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1660111

無線基礎設施（2024年第4季、2024年度、2025年2月）

Wireless Infrastructure 4Q24 & FY24, February 2025
出版日期: | 出版商: Teral Research | 英文 | 商品交期: 請詢問到貨日

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簡介目錄

本報告深入了解了2024年第四季的全球無線基礎設施市場，提供了2016年至2024年的歷史資料、2G/3G/4G/5G RAN（包括開放式 vRAN）和核心網路（EPC、vEPC、5GC）各地區的季市場規模和供應商市場佔有率，以及到2030年的詳細市場預測。

目錄

摘要

關鍵要點：2024年第四季表現強勁，但全年下滑；最糟糕的時期已經過去

2024年第四季的強勁表現不足以讓公司重回全年成長區間，但最糟糕的時期已經過去

  • 北美在本季處於領先地位，就像2024年第三季一樣
  • Open RAN、5G 和 EPC 是所有類別中表現最亮眼的
  • 4G 支出的急劇下降將導致市場規模比在2024年的預測低15億美元，而 5G 的強勁動力不足以抵消這一影響
  • 儘管推出速度緩慢，但 5G 仍然是一個亮點
  • Nokia將在2024年第四季搶佔市場佔有率，而排名第一的華為和第二位的Ericsson則會遭遇損失
  • 在核心網路領域，華為和中興通訊合計佔據 60%的市場佔有率，而Ericsson則保持第二位
  • 2024年，華為將繼續領先整個市場佔有率，其次是Ericsson，兩家公司的市場佔有率都在擴大。

正如正確預測的那樣，2024年是撤資週期的第三年，2025年將是撤資週期的第三年

  • 與 4G 一樣，5G 也有很長的後勁
  • 但與以往的週期不同的是，沒有新的G來產生新的投資週期。
  • 2025年前景看好

對長期無線基礎設施市場的預測顯示，市場略有下滑

  • 目前的情況表明，未來 10年將逐漸下降。
  • 隨著中國供應商從某些國家撤退，二手 4G/5G 設備市場將會蓬勃發展並壓倒其他市場。
  • 經過一段時間的停頓，Open RAN 將於今年全面推出
  • 亞太地區擁有世界上最大的無線網路，並將繼續成為最大的市場
  • 北美仍為全球第二大市場
  • 預計歐洲、中東和非洲今年將實現成長，然後在2030年緩慢下降
  • 加勒比海地區和拉丁美洲復蘇，預計將進一步成長
簡介目錄

This report analyzes the 4Q24 wireless infrastructure market worldwide and covers 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G radio access network (RAN) and core network nodes. It presents historical data from 2016 to 2024, quarterly market size and vendor market shares, and a detailed market forecast through 2030 for 2G/3G/4G/5G RAN, including Open vRAN, and core networks (EPC, vEPC, and 5GC), for each region (North America, Europe Middle East Africa, Asia Pacific, Caribbean Latin America). The historical data accounts for the sales of more than 30 wireless infrastructure vendors, including a few vendors that shared confidential sales data with TERAL RESEARCH. The market forecast is based on a model correlating wireless infrastructure vendor sales with 20 years of service provider network rollout pattern analysis, and upgrade and expansion plans.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS: SOLID 4Q24 BUT FULL YEAR DOWN, THE WORST IS BEHIND

THE ROBUST 4Q24 WAS NOT ENOUGH TO BRING BACK THE FULL YEAR TO GROWTH TERRITORY BUT

THE WORST IS BEHIND

  • LIKE IN 3Q24, NORTH AMERICA MADE THE QUARTER
  • OPEN RAN, 5G AND EPC WERE THE BRIGHTEST SPOTS OF ALL CATEGORIES
  • A SHARP 4G SPENDING DROP SUNK THE 2024 MARKET $1.5B BELOW OUR FORECAST; 5G WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET IT
  • EVEN WITH A SLOWER PACE OF ROLLOUTS, 5G REMAINS THE BRIGHT SPOT
    • A faster migration to 5G SA is greatly desired
    • The potential for LTE-A and VoLTE upgrades remains phenomenal
  • IN 4Q24, NOKIA INCREASES ITS SHARE AT THE EXPENSE OF #1 HUAWEI AND #2 ERICSSON
    • For 4Q24 RAN market share, both huawei and Ericsson lost share
  • IN CORE NETWORKS, HUAWEI AND ZTE COMBINED COMMAND A 60% MARKET SHARE, ERICSSON STAYED #2
    • The prolonged slow migration to 5G SA is over, a PICKUP started in 3Q24 and new contracts were awarded in 4Q24
    • We did such a good work in designing the EPC that the move to 5G core is hard to justify!
  • FOR 2024 TOTAL MARKET SHARE, HUAWEI STAYED #1 FOLLOWED BY ERICSSON, BOTH INCREASED THEIR SHARE

AS RIGHTLY PREDICTED, 2024 WAS THE THIRD YEAR OF THE DISINVESTMENT CYCLE, 2025 WILL BE UP

  • LIKE 4G, 5G WILL HAVE A LONG TAIL...
  • ...BUT UNLIKE PREVIOUS CYCLES, THERE IS NO NEW G TO CREATE A NEW INVESTMENT CYCLE
    • Although 5G remains the bright spot, it won't be big enough to offset the 4G decline
    • Factoring in the 4G decline, our model produced a lower base forecast
  • 2025 IS LOOKING UP!
    • North America will experience the strongest growth this year
    • Post-5G peak, all other regions will see moderate growth or flatness

OUR LONG-TERM WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET FORECAST POINTS TO A SLIGHT DECLINING TREND

  • Current conditions point to a slowly declining pattern through the end of the decade
  • FURTHER EXACERBATED BY THE VIBRANT SECONDHAND MARKET FOR 4G AND 5G EQUIPMENT COMING FROM THE REMOVAL OF THE CHINESE VENDORS IN SPECIFIC COUNTRIES THAT SWAMPS OTHER MARKETS
    • With Germany gearing up to remove Huawei's 5G equipment, we expect another cycle of used kits to flood the secondhand market in 2025-2026
  • AFTER THE PAUSE, OPEN RAN WILL START TO RAMP UP THIS YEAR
    • Geopolitics fueled both the open RAN ecosystem and traditional 5G RAN rollouts led by Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung
  • HOME TO THE WORLD'S LARGEST WIRELESS NETWORK FOOTPRINTS, ASIA PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE LARGEST MARKET
  • NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET
  • AFTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, EMEA WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH 2030
  • CALA IS BOUNCING BACK WITH POTENTIAL GROWTH AHEAD