石油和天然氣產業低碳燃料策略：市場概況、生產前景、趨勢和分析

石油和天然氣產業目前面臨許多挑戰，但其產品脫碳的壓力至關重要。再生柴油、SAF 和合成燃料等低碳燃料提供了一條脫碳途徑，使石油和天然氣產業能夠繼續向現有消費產業提供產品和服務。石油和天然氣公司正在探索多種策略來進入低碳燃料市場。再生柴油或 SAF 可以透過重複利用加氫處理裝置對現有煉油廠進行協同加工或改造來生產。大部分再生柴油和 SAF 產能預計將來自獨立的再生能源項目。同時，石油和天然氣公司必須與氫氣供應商合作或投資自己的氫氣生產設備來生產合成燃料。這些低碳燃料的產量預計都會增加，但每種燃料都有自己的挑戰，因為目前與傳統燃料相比不具成本競爭力。總體而言，SAF 將經歷最強勁的成長，2018 年至 2030 年複合年增長率為 49.8%，使其成為石油和天然氣行業一個充滿前景的領域。同時，再生柴油產量同期將成長13.1%。生產面臨的挑戰是，到 2030 年，合成燃料仍將是一項正在發展的技術。

本報告探討了石油和天然氣行業的低碳燃料戰略，以現有石油和天然氣基礎設施以及勞動力技能和專業知識為基礎，包括可再生柴油、可持續航空燃料(SAF)，重點關注合成燃料，評估這些低碳燃料的生產前景，提供有關石油和天然氣公司最大機會、未來預測等的資訊。

目錄

• 執行摘要
• 石油和天然氣產業的低碳燃料策略
• 石油和天然氣產業面臨的挑戰
• 低碳燃料市場中石油和天然氣的重點領域
• 公司重點發展的低碳燃料介紹
• 向再生燃料過渡的產業策略
• 轉化/協同製程煉油廠與獨立項目
• 再生柴油
• 再生柴油產量前景
• 目前再生柴油市場的領導者
• 2030 年產能最大的再生柴油項目
• 石油天然氣相關公司的應用趨勢
• 消費與貿易趨勢
• 永續航空燃料
• SAF 生產前景
• 2030 年產能最大的 SAF 項目
• SAF 當前和未來的市場領導者
• 石油天然氣相關公司的應用趨勢
• 貿易活動
• 合成燃料
• 生產前景
• 石油和天然氣合成燃料公司
• 諮詢方式

Abstract

The oil and gas industry currently faces numerous challenges, but the pressure to decarbonize its products is arguably the largest. Low carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries. There are a number of strategies that oil and gas players are exploring to branch into the low carbon fuels market. Renewable diesel and SAFs can be produced through coprocessing or the conversion of existing refineries by repurposing hydrotreating equipment. Standalone renewable projects will contribute the majority of production capacity for renewable diesel and SAFs. Meanwhile, oil and gas players will need to engage with hydrogen suppliers or invest in their own hydrogen production facilities to produce synthetic fuels. The production of each of these low carbon fuels is expected to increase, but all come with their own set of challenges, namely that they are currently not cost competitive with conventional fuels. Overall, SAFs will experience the strongest growth, with a CAGR of 49.8% between 2018- 2030 and, as a result, represent a promising area for the oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, renewable diesel production will increase by 13.1% across the same time frame. Production challenges will see synthetic fuels remains a nascent technology in the run up to 2030.

Amid increasing pressure to decarbonize and diversify its products, this report outlines oil and gas sector strategies within the low carbon fuels market. The report identifies renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), and synthetic fuel as key focus areas based on existing oil and gas infrastructure as well as workforce skills and expertise. The report assesses the production outlook for each of these low carbon fuels and indicates the biggest areas of opportunity for oil and gas players.

Key Highlights

• Larger production capacities of renewable fuels are typically being achieved by renewable standalone projects, where construction is not hampered by an existing refinery footprint. Although these projects require a much higher capital expenditure.
• Based on GlobalData's database of active and upcoming renewable refinery projects, renewable diesel production is expected to exceed 8,900 mmgy by 2030.
• Only 4 of the top 10 integrated oil and gas companies by market capitalization feature in our renewable diesel ranking by capacity.
• Taking together both active and pipeline production capacity, SAF production is expected to exceed 6,100 mmgy in 2030.
• Low synthetic fuel production is partly due to the early stages of this technology and the challenges of achieving economically viable production on a commercial scale.

Scope

• Renewable diesel production outlook
• Renewable diesel upcoming projects
• SAFs production outlook
• SAFS upcoming projects
• Synthetic fuels production outlook
• Low carbon fuel deal activity within oil and gas
• Company filing trends within low carbon fuels

Reasons to Buy

• Obtain the most up to date information on recent developments and policies related to oil and gas sector strategies in the low carbon fuels segment.
• Identify the opportunities of challenges associated with the switch form oil refining to renewable refineries for crude oil refiners.
• Gain insight into the production outlook for renewable diesel, SAFS, and synthetic fuels.
• Assess competitors based on their active and pipeline capacities for low carbon fuel production and gain an overview of largest upcoming renewable refinery projects.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Oil and Gas Sector Strategies for Low Carbon Fuels
• Oil and gas sector challenges
• Oil and gas focus areas in the low carbon fuels market
• Introduction to our focus low carbon fuels
• Sector strategies for transitioning to renewable fuels
• Converted/ coprocessing refineries vs standalone projects
• Renewable Diesel
• Renewable diesel production outlook
• Current market leaders in renewable diesel
• The largest renewable diesel projects by 2030 capacity
• Company filing trends in oil and gas
• Consumption and deal trends
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel
• SAF production outlook
• The largest SAF projects by 2030 capacity
• Current and projected market leaders in SAFs
• Company filing trends in oil and gas
• Deal activity
• Synthetic Fuels
• Production outlook
• Oil and gas synthetic fuel players
• Contact us

List of Tables

List of Tables

• Largest renewable diesel projects by their 2030 capacity
• Largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
• Key Takeaways

List of Figures

List of Figures

• Oil and gas sector challenges
• Oil and gas focus areas in the low carbon fuels market
• Introducing the three focus low carbon fuels for the oil and gas sector
• Types of renewable refinery
• Renewable refineries by type and project count, 2023 - 2030
• CAPEX across renewable refinery types
• Renewable diesel production outlook, 2018 - 2030
• Top 15 renewable diesel companies by capacity in 2022
• Mentions of renewable diesel in oil and gas company filings, 2016 - August 2023
• Top oil and gas players by mentions of renewable diesel within company filings
• Renewable diesel consumption, 2022 - 2040
• Oil and gas deals related to renewable diesel 2018 - 2022
• SAF production outlook, 2018 - 2030
• Top SAF producers by 2022 capacity
• Top SAF producers by 2030 capacity
• SAF mentions by oil and gas companies, 2018 - 2023 (YTD)
• Top oil and gas players by mentions of SAFs in company filings between 2018 and 2023 (YTD)
• A snapshot of SAF deal activity in the oil and gas sector
• Synthetic fuel production and project count, 2018 - 2030
• Upcoming synthetic fuel production capacity of oil and gas players as of August 2023