石油和天然氣產業的低碳燃料策略

Oil and Gas Sector Strategies for Low-Carbon Fuels

出版日期: 2024年10月03日 | 出版商:

GlobalData | 英文 42 Pages | 訂單完成後即時交付

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簡介目錄圖表

石油和天然氣產業面臨政府和投資者要求其脫碳和產品多樣化的壓力。再生柴油、SAF 和合成燃料等低碳燃料使石油和天然氣行業能夠繼續為現有消費品行業提供產品和服務，同時實現資產多元化並減少老化的基礎設施，我們提供了一條降低風險的脫碳之路。

石油和天然氣產業目前面臨許多課題，但脫碳和產品多元化的壓力可以說是最大的。這是由於對氣候變遷和政府增加碳稅的擔憂，威脅到石油和天然氣公司的利潤。這種壓力也來自於投資者對產業長期獲利能力的擔憂。事實上，World Economic Forum預測石油需求將在 2030 年至 2035 年間達到高峰。

再生柴油、SAF 和合成燃料等低碳燃料使石油產業能夠繼續為現有消費品產業提供產品和服務，同時實現資產多元化並降低基礎設施老化的風險。

石油和天然氣公司正在探索多種策略來進入低碳燃料市場。其中之一是透過協同處理或重複利用現有設備，將現有煉油廠改造為生產再生柴油和 SAF。另一條途徑是對再生獨立煉油廠進行長期投資。儘管該煉油廠需要較高的初始投資，但它可以擴大到比協同處理或轉化煉油廠高得多的產能。

再生獨立專案貢獻了再生柴油和 SAF 產能的大部分，預計到 2030 年將佔再生能源煉油廠總產能的 64%。同時，石油和天然氣公司必須與氫氣供應商合作或投資自己的氫氣生產設施來生產合成燃料。

這些低碳燃料的產量預計都會增加，但目前每種燃料都面臨著與傳統燃料相比不具成本競爭力的課題。近年來，對低碳燃料的投資也有所放緩，因為最近對化石燃料的需求激增使石油和天然氣公司對該行業的長壽更有信心。

整體而言，SAF成長最為強勁，2020年至2035年產量複合年增長率為44%，使其成為油氣產業充滿希望的發展領域。另一方面，再生柴油產能預計同期複合年增長率僅為9%，因為其中部分產能將轉移至SAF。由於需求預計下降，再生柴油在未來十年可能面臨供應過剩的課題。最後，到 2030 年，生產課題可能會使合成燃料成為石油和天然氣公司最不喜歡的再生燃料。

主要亮點

到 2030 年，三種類型的再生能源煉油廠（原油煉油廠轉化、協同處理和再生獨立煉油廠）的產能預計將繼續增加。
預計2024年至2030年，原油煉油廠轉化和原油煉油協同處理能力將以14%的複合年增長率成長。
再生能源獨立發電量成長率最高，2024年至2030年複合年增長率為30%。
2024 年至 2030 年間，所有三種煉油廠類型的產能都將轉向 SAF，而不是 RD。
2020-2032年，研發生產和消費的複合年增長率將分別達到12%和12.5%的高峰。
2020年至2035年，全球SAF產量和消費量預計將以44%的複合年增長率成長。
低碳氫化合物合成燃料產量預計將持續成長，2025年至2030年複合年增長率預計為58%，2030年產能快速成長（每年超過1,000萬噸）。

本報告審視和分析了全球石油和天然氣產業，提供了低碳燃料策略、生物燃料的法律框架以及每種再生燃料的市場前景。

The oil and gas industry is facing pressures from both governments and investors to decarbonize and diversify its products. Low-carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries, while diversifying its assets and decreasing the risk of its infrastructure becoming obsolete.

The oil and gas industry currently faces numerous challenges, but the pressure to decarbonize and diversify its products is arguably the largest. This is due to climate concerns, as well as increasing carbon tax imposed by governments, which threatens oil and gas companies' profits. This pressure also comes from investors, who are concerned with the long-term profitability of the industry. In fact, the World Economic Forum forecasts oil demand to peak between 2030 and 2035.

Low-carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries, while diversifying its assets and decreasing the risk of its infrastructure becoming obsolete.

There are a number of strategies that oil and gas players are exploring to branch into the low carbon fuels market. One pathway includes producing renewable diesel and SAFs through coprocessing or the conversion of existing refineries by repurposing existing equipment. Another pathway includes long-term investments into renewable standalone refineries, which require greater upfront capital but can scale production to far higher capacities than co-processing and conversion refineries.

Renewable standalone projects are expected to contribute the bulk of the production capacity for renewable diesel and SAFs, accounting for 64% of the overall renewable refinery capacity in 2030. Meanwhile, oil and gas players will need to engage with hydrogen suppliers or invest in their own hydrogen production facilities to produce synthetic fuels.

The production of each of these low-carbon fuels is expected to increase, but all come with their own set of challenges, namely that they are currently not cost-competitive compared to conventional fuels. A surge in fossil fuel demand in recent years has also led oil and gas companies to gain more confidence surrounding the industry's longevity, leading to a recent slowdown in low-carbon fuel investments.

Overall, SAFs will experience the strongest growth, with production increasing at a CAGR of 44% between 2020 and 2035 and, as a result, represent a promising area of development for the oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, renewable diesel production will increase at a smaller CAGR of 9% across the same time frame, as some of its capacity will be diverted to SAFs. RD may also face oversupply challenges in the next decade, due to a predicted decrease in its demand. Lastly, production challenges will see synthetic fuels as the renewable fuel picked the least by oil and gas companies in the run-up to 2030.

Key Highlights

Capacities for all three types of renewable refineries (crude oil refinery conversion, coprocessing and renewable standalone) are forecast to keep increasing through to 2030.
Crude refinery conversion and crude refinery co-processing capacities are both set to grow at a CAGR of 14% between 2024 and 2030.
Renewable standalone capacity is growing at the highest rate, with a CAGR of 30% between 2024 and 2030.
For all three types of refineries, between 2024 and 2030, a shift can be witnessed where capacity is increasingly being devoted to SAFs as opposed to RD.
RD production and consumption are both set to grow at a CAGR of 12% and 12.5%, respectively, between 2020 and 2032, where they are set to reach a peak.
Global SAF production and consumption are both set to grow at a CAGR of 44% between 2020 and 2035.
Synthetic fuel production from low-carbon hydrogen is set to keep growing, with a positive CAGR of 58% between 2025 and 2030, with a spike in capacity in 2030 (over 10mtpa).

Scope

Oil and gas sector strategies for low-carbon fuels;
Legislative framework for biofuels, with specific focus on RD and SAF;
Sector strategies for transitioning into renewable fuels, including refinery retrofitting;
Crude oil refinery conversion and coprocessing vs renewable standalone
Renewable diesel: market outlook and leaders
SAFs: market outlook and leaders
Synthetic fuels: market outlook and leaders

Reasons to Buy

Identify decarbonizing market trends within the oil and gas sector, including the analysis of the strategies that the biggest industry players are implementing.
Develop market insight of the major technologies and pathways used to decarbonize the industry, including refinery retrofitting as well as investment into standalone refineries, with focus on renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuels, and synthetic fuels.
Identify the key policies driving development and which countries have the most established legislative framework for said technologies.
Facilitate the understanding of what is predicted to happen in the renewable fuels market within the next decade.

Executive summary
Legislative framework for biofuels
Sector strategies for transitioning into renewable fuels
Crude oil refinery conversion and coprocessing vs renewable standalone
Renewable diesel: market outlook and leaders
SAFs: market outlook and leaders
Synthetic fuels: market outlook and leaders
Key takeaways

簡介目錄圖表

List of Tables

Oil and gas focus areas in the low carbon fuels market
Current key oil and gas players in the biofuels market
Crude refinery conversion and co-processing: pros and cons for refiners
Crude refineries converted and co-processing active and upcoming projects
Crude refineries for renewable standalone active and upcoming
The largest renewable diesel projects by their 2030 capacity
The largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
RD, SAF and synthetic fuel development stage

List of Figures

Renewable refineries capacity by type, 2024-2030
Renewable refineries by project count, 2024-2030
CAPEX across renewable refineries types
Leading renewable fuel producers in 2024 YTD (conversion and coprocessing)
Predicted renewable fuel producers in 2030 (conversion and coprocessing)
Leading renewable fuel companies in 2024 YTD (renewable standalone)
Leading renewable fuel companies in 2030 (renewable standalone)
RD production by region, 2020-2035
RD consumption by region, 2020-2035
Top 5 companies for RD production by capacity, 2024
Top 5 companies for RD production by capacity, 2030
Top 10 non-oil and gas companies by mentions of RD in company filings, 2016-2024
Top 10 oil and gas companies by mentions of RD in company filings, 2016-2024
Mentions of RD in company filings, 2016-2024
SAF production by region, 2020-2035
SAF consumption by region, 2020-2035
Top 5 companies for SAF production by capacity, 2024
Top 5 companies for SAF production by capacity, 2030
Top 10 non-oil and gas companies by mentions of SAF in company filings, 2016-2024
Top 10 oil and gas companies by mentions of SAF in company filings, 2016-2024
Mentions of SAF in company filings, 2016-2024
Upcoming low-carbon hydrogen capacity allocated to synthetic fuels and project count, 2025-2030
Top 5 companies for synthetic fuel production by capacity, 2024
Top 5 companies for synthetic fuel production by capacity, 2030