鋼鐵業的脫碳化

鋼鐵排放量佔全球溫室氣體排放量的8%，被認為是難以減排的產業。 2022 年至 2050 年間，鋼鐵需求預計將增加 30% 以上，並且需要進行重大變革才能實現淨零排放，即到 2050 年淨零鋼鐵倡議 (NZI) 的目標。

儘管廢鋼的供應量預計會增加，但二次加工（回收）預計無法滿足全球鋼鐵需求。鋼鐵製造的整體效率改進已被提議作為具有成本效益的解決方案，但這些只能帶來適度的減排。實現有意義的減排需要放棄火力發電。

鋼鐵業價值鏈中碳強度最高的環節是鋼鐵製造。已提出的初級煉鋼脫碳技術包括碳捕獲、利用和儲存（CCUS）、直接鐵還原中的氫（HDRI）（替代煤炭）和電解。然而，這些生產 "綠色鋼鐵" 的方法難以具有成本競爭力，因此採用率仍然很低。實現淨零目標需要加速引入這些技術。

電解尚未在商業規模上得到證實，CCUS的資本成本較高，令鋼鐵製造商持謹慎態度。 HDRI 被視為最成熟的技術，預計將佔綠色鋼鐵項目的大部分。然而，氫基礎設施的缺乏以及未來氫平準化成本的不確定性仍然是個課題。

隨著這些新的製造方法變得更具成本競爭力，我們可能會在未來幾十年內看到從煤炭轉向 HDRI 和電解。 CBAM 等政策和承諾購買綠色鋼鐵的公司可以加速這一進程。

本報告審視了全球鋼鐵業的脫碳情況，概述了全球鋼鐵生產趨勢和該行業的排放足跡、每個領域的行業脫碳關鍵技術，並討論了關鍵參與者、政策和舉措。

目錄

摘要整理

• 世界鋼鐵工業
• 全球鋼鐵生產的最新趨勢
• 鋼鐵業的碳排放
• 實現鋼鐵減量的關鍵技術
• 鋼鐵業脫碳面臨的課題
• 2023年主要鋼鐵製造商的排放結果
• 主要政策和舉措
• 整個鋼鐵價值鏈的排放
• 採礦業脫碳
• 再生能源
• 電氣化
• 採礦公司採用電動鏟運機和卡車
• 製造業脫碳
• 鋼鐵製造脫碳技術
• 鋼鐵製造中的低碳氫和 HDRI
• 發展低碳鋼氫能的主要地區
• 專注於鋼鐵業的主要氫能開發公司
• HDRI 案例研究
• 鋼鐵製造中的 CCUS
• 鋼鐵業應用 CCUS 的主要公司
• 透過電解實現製造業脫碳
• 電解案例研究
• 二次鋼鐵製造業
• 二流製造案例研究
• 製造業減量策略評估
• 航運和物流脫碳

Steel contributes to 8% of global GHG emissions and is considered a hard to abate industry. As steel demand is expected to grow by more than 30% from 2022-2050, major changes will be needed to achieve the Net-Zero Steel Initiative's (NZI) target of net-zero by 2050.

Although scrap steel availability will increase, secondary stream steelmaking (recycling) is not expected to meet global steel demand. General efficiency increases in steelmaking have been proposed as a cost-effective solution, however these only yield modest emission reductions. A departure from thermal power sources is required to achieve meaningful emission reduction.

The most carbon intensive stage in the industry's value chain is steel manufacturing. Proposed technologies to decarbonize primary steelmaking include carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), hydrogen (to replace coal) in direct reduction of iron (HDRI) and electrolysis. However, these methods of producing "green steel" struggle to be cost-competitive and so adoption remains low. An accelerated introduction of these technologies will be needed to meet net zero targets.

Electrolysis has not yet been proven at commercial scale, and steel manufacturers have been wary of CCUS due to its high capital costs. HDRI is seen as the most developed technology and is expected to make up the majority of green steel projects. However, a lack of hydrogen infrastructure and uncertainty surrounding the future levelized cost of hydrogen remains a challenge.

As these new production methods become more cost-competitive, there will be a shift from coal to HDRI and electrolysis over the coming decades. This process has the potential to be sped up by policies such as CBAM or by companies making commitments to purchase green steel.

Current trends in global steel production and the sector's emission footprint. Overview of the key technologies for decarbonizing the sector across the mining, manufacturing and logistics segments of the supply chain, including low-carbon hydrogen, CCUS, electrification. In addition, the report discuses the key players, policies, and initiatives throughout.

Scope

• Steel production has steadily increased over time, rising by a CAGR of 3.2% between 1950 and 2023 according to the World Steel Association. This growth has been driven by the industrialization of different regions over time, with the economic rise of China and India over the time frame contributing strongly to the global growth of steel production.
• 95% of carbon emissions in the steel industry are due to the manufacturing process - the direct reduction of iron ore is a very energy intensive process, requiring high levels of heat for the oxygen to be displaced from the iron ore.
• Despite the potential efficiency increases and emission reduction associated with electrification, adoption of battery powered loading equipment within mining remains relatively limited, with GlobalData's 2024 Mine Site Technology Survey revealing that 46% of miners had not invested in battery/ electric powered mining vehicles at all, compared to 2.7% for full implementation and 9.6% for considerable investment in the technology.
• According to GlobalData Hydrogen Analytics, the capital expenditure of low-carbon hydrogen projects that will come online by the end of the decade and supply the steel sector amounts to $136 billion.
• CCUS capacity within the steel sector accounts for 1.22Mt/year, so significant investment would be needed for the technology to meaningfully curb the steel industry's emissions.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify the market trends within the industry and assess what the biggest players in steel production are doing to reduce emissions.
• Develop market insight of the major technologies used to decarbonize the industry, as well as the policy framework laid out by governments to support their adoption.
• Facilitate the understanding of what is happening within hard to abate industries as they aim to become carbon neutral by 2050.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Executive summary

• The global steel industry
• Recent trends in global steel production
• Carbon emissions from the steel industry
• Key technologies for achieving emission reduction in steel
• Challenges for decarbonizing the steel industry
• Emissions performance of the largest steel producers in 2023
• Key policies and initiatives
• Emissions across the steel value chain
• Decarbonizing mining
• Renewable energy
• Electrification
• Adoption of electric LHDs and trucks across miners
• Decarbonizing manufacturing
• Technologies for decarbonizing steel manufacturing
• Low-carbon hydrogen and HDRI in steel manufacturing
• Key regions developing low-carbon hydrogen for steel
• Key hydrogen developers focusing on the steel sector
• HDRI case studies
• CCUS in steel manufacturing
• Key players applying CCUS to steel
• Decarbonizing manufacturing through electrolysis
• Electrolysis case studies
• Secondary stream manufacturing within steel
• Secondary stream manufacturing case studies
• Assessing emission reduction strategies for manufacturing
• Decarbonizing shipping and logistics

List of Tables

• Emissions performance of the largest steel producers in 2023
• Technologies for decarbonizing manufacturing
• Assessing electrolysis technologies
• World trade in iron ore by region, 2023

List of Figures

• Historical crude steel production, 1950 - 2023
• CO2 emissions by sector, 2019 - 2022
• CO2 emissions per tonne of crude steel cast, 2012 - 2022
• Key technologies for achieving emission reductions within steel
• Key challenges for decarbonizing the steel industry
• The steel value chain
• Active and upcoming iron ore projects by development stage and grid status
• Renewable capacity associated with iron ore projects by mine start year, 2021 - 2030
• Split of scope 1 carbon emissions in mining
• Adoption of BEVs within mining according to GlobalData's mine site technology survey
• Adoption of electric LHDs and trucks across miners
• Maximum low-carbon hydrogen being supplied to the steel sector, 2022 - 2030
• Regional split of low-carbon hydrogen capacity being allocated to the steel sector
• Top 10 countries by low-carbon hydrogen capacity supplying the steel sector in 2030
• Leading owners of hydrogen projects allocating capacity to the steel sector in 2030
• CCUS capacity within the iron and steel sector, 2022 - 2030
• Scrap share of metallic inputs under a net-zero scenario, 2018 - 2030