化學產業的脫碳化 - 2024年

化學工業是最大的工業能源消耗者，約佔排放量的 2%。該部門的碳排放是由化學反應所需的過程能源和使用化石燃料作為原料共同造成的。

該報告確定了改善該行業排放足跡的四個關鍵方法：製程效率改進和電氣化、綠氫、CCUS 以及生物質和廢棄物原料。這四項措施解決了該行業的製程能源和原料需求。

本報告中所確定的能源轉型技術介入措施也可以分為提供短期和長期減排的策略。短期減排將專注於透過提高製程效率來減少能源需求。本報告概述如何應用人工智慧、物聯網和數位孿生來識別設備效率低下並優化化工廠運作。

但從長遠來看，我們需要將生產與排放脫鉤，這將要求工業大幅改變其與碳的關係。 CCUS 改造可用於避免工廠排放，但該技術取決於更廣泛的 CCUS 運輸和儲存基礎設施的出現。同時，綠氫、生物質和塑膠廢物都是可用於減少該產業對化石燃料作為原料的依賴的替代品。

主要亮點

• 所有主要化學產品的產量預計將增加，以因應需求的增加。 2024年至2030年，聚丙烯和聚乙烯產量預計將分別以3.8%和2.8%的複合年增長率成長。
• 另一方面，氨等主要產品預計同期成長 1.7%。然而，氨生產的碳強度意味著這一小幅成長將對更廣泛產業的排放足跡產生重大影響，光是氨就佔化學工業排放量的 45%。
• 技術創新有助於化學品生產和能源需求脫鉤，是短期減排的關鍵。
• 開發新的催化劑和減少製程能源需求的能源回收措施是減少化學產業能源需求和防止浪費的關鍵。
• 透過利用農作物和廢棄物等生物來源來實現原料多樣化，為減少對化石燃料的依賴提供了一條途徑。此外，塑膠廢棄物可以透過熱解等過程回收成新的化學原料。
• 預計 2024 年至 2035 年工業能源需求將強勁成長，期間複合年增長率為 7%。由於這一增長，2024 年至 2035 年間，工業部門在全球電力需求中的佔有率將增加 2.4%。

本報告提供全球化學產業調查分析，提供市場趨勢，大企業的排放削減活動的評估，主要的脫碳化技術相關見地，低碳技術的採用趨勢等資訊。

目錄

• 摘要整理
• 碳排放與宏觀展望
• 化學產業對氣候變遷的貢獻
• 主要化學產品的需求
• 氨對化學品排放的貢獻
• 脫碳技術引進
• 四種主要的化學品脫碳技術
• 技術：脫碳潛力，分階段
• 脫碳技術的優點和缺點
• 脫碳的宏觀經濟障礙課題
• 主要公司的目標和排放
• 主要化學和石化公司的排放和淨零目標
• 製程效率
• 化學工業的能源使用
• 用於提高製程效率的關鍵方法
• 製程效率案例研究
• 化學品中的氫
• 作為低碳氫化合物最終用途的化學品
• 低碳氨生產
• 針對化學工業的低碳氫化合物項目
• 案例研究
• 化學品中的CCUS
• CCUS 產能展望
• 專案與案例研究
• 生物質和廢棄物作為原料
• 生物質化學品
• 廢塑膠化學品
• 諮詢方式

The chemicals industry accounts for approximately 2% of emissions and is the largest industrial energy consumer. The sector's carbon emissions stem from the combination of process energy which is required for chemical reactions as well as the use of fossil fuels as a feedstock. This report identifies four key methodologies for improving the sector's emissions footprint: increasing process efficiency and electrification, green hydrogen, CCUS, and biomass and waste-based feedstocks. These four measures address the sector's process energy and feedstock requirements.

The energy transition technology interventions identified within this report can also be broken down into strategies that provide near-term and long-term emission reduction. Shorter-term emission reduction will focus on reducing energy demand through increasing process efficiency. This report outlines how applications of artificial intelligence, Internet of Things (IoT), and digital twins can be used to identify equipment inefficiencies and optimize chemical plant operations.

However, in the longer term, there is a need to decouple production from emissions, which will require the industry to dramatically shift its relationship with carbon. CCUS retrofits can be used to avert emissions from plants, but this technology is contingent on the emergence of a wider CCUS transport and storage infrastructure. Meanwhile, green hydrogen, biomass and plastic waste all represent alternatives that can be used to reduce the sector's reliance on fossil fuels for feedstock.

Key Highlights

• All major chemical products are expected to experience an increase in production in response to increasing demand. Polypropylene and polyethylene are forecast to experience a growth in production of CAGR 3.8% and 2.8%, respectively, between 2024 and 2030.
• Meanwhile major products such as ammonia will experience a slower growth of 1.7% across the same time frame. However, the carbon intensity of ammonia production will cause this small increases to have a significant impact on the emission footprint of the wider industry, with ammonia alone accounting for 45% of the chemical sector's emissions.
• Technological innovation will facilitate a decoupling between chemical production and energy demand, which will be key to short-term emission reductions.
• Developing novel catalysts that reduce process energy requirements and energy recovery measures will be key to cutting the sector's energy demand and preventing waste.
• Diversifying feedstocks by using biogenic materials such as crops and waste products offers a route to decreasing reliance on fossil fuels. In addition, plastic waste can be recycled into new chemical product feedstock through processes such as pyrolysis.
• Industrial energy demand is expected to increase strongly between 2024 and 2035, growing at CAGR of 7% across the time frame. As a result of this growth, the industrial sector will hold an increasing proportion of global power demand, with its share rising by 2.4% between 2024 and 2035.

Scope

• Chemical sector emissions, key chemical companies emission disclosure, chemical decarbonization strategies, low-carbon hydrogen, CCUS, increasing efficiency, alternative waste and biomass-based feedstocks.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify the market trends within the industry and assess what the biggest players in chemical production are doing to reduce emissions.
• Develop market insight of the major technologies used to decarbonize chemical production through case studies from industry leaders.
• Understand the chemical industry adoption trends of emerging low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen and CCUS.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive summary
• Carbon emissions and macro-outlook
• Chemicals industry's contribution to climate change
• Demand for major chemical products
• Ammonia's contribution to chemical emissions
• Introduction to decarbonization technologies
• Four key decarbonisation technologies for chemicals
• Technologies by decarbonization potential and stage
• Advantages and disadvantages of decarbonization technologies
• Macroeconomic challenges that will pose a barrier to decarbonization
• Key player targets and emissions
• Emissions and net-zero targets of key chemical and petrochemical players
• Process efficiency
• Energy use in the chemicals industry
• Key methods for increasing process efficiency
• Process efficiency case studies
• Hydrogen in chemicals
• Chemicals as an end-use sector for low-carbon hydrogen
• Low carbon ammonia production
• Low-carbon hydrogen projects that will target the chemical sector
• Case Studies
• CCUS in chemicals
• CCUS capacity outlook
• Projects and Case Studies
• Biomass and waste as feedstocks
• Biomass-based chemicals
• Waste plastic-based chemicals
• Contact us

List of Tables

• Assessing technologies for decarbonizing the chemical industry
• Advantages and disadvantages of different emission reduction methods
• Emission performance and targets for chemical and petrochemical companies
• Low-carbon hydrogen projects that will target the chemical sector
• Projects applying CCUS to the chemical and fertilizer sector

List of Figures

• CO2 emissions by sector, 2019 - 2022
• Chemical industry emissions, 2010 - 2030 (net-zero scenario
• Major demand markets for petrochemical products, 2018 - 2030
• Demand for major chemicals, 2018 - 2030
• Approximate breakdown of chemical sector emissions by product
• Annual production of major chemical products in 2024 vs 2030
• The top four energy transition technologies for chemicals
• Five macroeconomic challenges that will pose a barrier to decarbonization
• Breakdown of global power demand by sector in 2035
• Process energy for primary chemical production, 2010 - 2030
• Global low-carbon hydrogen capacity by development stage, 2021 - 2030
• Hydrogen plants allocating capacity to the chemical sector, 2021 - 2030
• Breakdown of active and upcoming production capacity by end-product
• Low-carbon ammonia capacity, 2021 - 2030
• Global CCS capacity by development stage, 2022 - 2030
• CCS capacity in chemical sector and project count, 2022 - 2030