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全球脫碳市場 - 2024-2031Global Decarbonization Market - 2024-2031 |
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2023年全球脫碳市場規模達1.84兆美元,預計2031年將達到4.38兆美元,2024-2031年預測期間複合年成長率為11.42%。
由於各國政府、企業和組織不斷增加應對氣候變遷和實現永續發展目標的舉措,全球脫碳市場正在迅速擴大。脫碳是指減少或消除整個工業、商業和住宅部門二氧化碳(CO2)和其他溫室氣體排放的過程。這通常是透過轉向清潔能源、提高能源效率和使用碳捕獲技術來實現的。
旨在降低全球排放的強力的政府法規和國際協議推動了脫碳市場。得到近 200 個國家簽署的《巴黎協定》制定了崇高目標,將全球氣溫升高限制在比工業化前水準高出 2°C 的範圍內,其中理想目標是 1.5°C。因此,全球各國政府都制定了碳中和或淨零排放目標。例如,歐盟在其《歐洲綠色協議》中承諾在2050年成為第一個氣候中和的大陸,這將對脫碳技術的需求產生相當大的影響。
亞太地區是脫碳解決方案成長最快的市場,其推動因素包括不斷成長的能源需求、優先考慮永續發展的政府政策以及人們日益認知到應對氣候變遷的必要性。亞太地區一些最大的新興經濟體,包括中國、印度、日本和東南亞,在減少碳排放和向低碳經濟轉型方面正在取得實質進展。
根據世界經濟論壇的數據,到 2040 年,包括中國和印度在內的亞洲將佔全球能源需求的 43%。此外,該地區將貢獻當年需求成長的 50% 以上,鞏固其作為全球能源轉型關鍵參與者的地位。
動力學
脫碳技術進步
脫碳措施高度依賴能源儲存、再生能源和碳捕獲與儲存(CCS)領域的技術創新。為了與化石燃料相比更具成本競爭力,太陽能、風能和水力發電不斷擴大其市場佔有率。根據國際再生能源機構(IRENA)的數據,從2010年到2020年,太陽能光電發電成本下降了89%,而離岸風能成本下降了70%。這些發展有助於向更健康的能源過渡,並減少對煤炭、石油和天然氣的依賴。
直接空氣捕集和點源捕集正在被整合到工業流程中,碳捕集技術,特別是 CCUS,已成為脫碳的焦點。根據國際能源總署 (IEA) 永續發展設想,到 2070 年,能源部門的全球二氧化碳淨排放量將被消除,碳捕集與封存 (CCS) 每年可減少約 56 億噸二氧化碳。年),大約是目前每年4000 萬噸水準的140 倍。
大力投資綠色技術
目前,脫碳市場最顯著的驅動力是再生能源技術的投資。這項轉型是更廣泛轉型的組成部分,國際能源總署 (IEA) 報告稱,再生能源與化石燃料的投資比例目前接近每美元化石燃料投資 2 美元。例如,2022 年的通貨膨脹削減法案 (IRA) 就是美國的一個鮮明例子。該立法撥款 3,690 億美元用於永續能源計劃,其中包括對再生電力和碳捕獲技術的補貼。
政府補貼、稅收抵免和財政激勵措施鼓勵儘早採用這些技術。例如,國際能源總署預測,2024年僅太陽能光電技術的投資就將超過5,000億美元,這是全球新發電單一能源技術投資最高的。此外,隨著各國加大力度整合再生能源,新獲得的電力的很大一部分將分配給電網基礎設施。
監管不確定性與融資挑戰
儘管全球致力於脫碳,但政策不一致和監管不確定性仍然是加速轉型的關鍵挑戰。儘管許多國家製定了長期氣候目標,但短期政策的實施情況,特別是在發展中國家,仍然參差不齊。國際能源總署(IEA)呼籲發出更明確的政策訊號並加強國際合作,以避免碎片化並確保向低碳經濟的平穩過渡。
此外,儘管清潔能源投資不斷成長,但融資仍存在巨大缺口,特別是在發展中國家。國際金融公司 (IFC) 估計,到 2030 年全球向淨零排放過渡將需要 23 兆美元,但目前的資金水平不足。動員私部門融資,特別是中小企業和新興經濟體的融資,對於實現全球脫碳目標至關重要。
Global Decarbonization Market reached US$ 1.84 trillion in 2023 and is expected to reach US$ 4.38 trillion by 2031, growing with a CAGR of 11.42% during the forecast period 2024-2031.
The global decarbonization market is rapidly expanding due to governments, corporations and organizations escalating their initiatives to address climate change and achieve sustainability objectives. Decarbonization refers to the process of decreasing or eliminating carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions throughout the industrial, commercial and residential sectors. This is generally accomplished through the shift to cleaner energy sources, enhancements in energy efficiency and the use of carbon capture technologies.
The decarbonization market is fueled by strong governmental regulations and international agreements aimed at lowering global emissions. The Paris Agreement, endorsed by almost 200 nations, established lofty objectives to restrict global temperature increase to much below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5°C. Consequently, governments globally have established carbon neutrality or net-zero emission objectives. For instance, the European Union has committed to being the first climate-neutral continent by 2050 under its European Green Deal, which will have a considerable impact on the demand for decarbonization technologies.
Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing market for decarbonization solutions, driven by the growing demand for energy, government policies that prioritize sustainability and the growing recognition of the necessity to address climate change. Some of the largest emergent economies in APAC, including China, India, Japan and Southeast Asia, are making substantial progress in the reduction of carbon emissions and the transition to a low-carbon economy.
By 2040, Asia, which encompasses China and India, will account for 43% of global energy demand, according to the World Economic Forum. Additionally, the region will contribute over 50% of the demand growth during that year, solidifying its position as a key actor in the global energy transition.
Dynamics
Technological Advancements in Decarbonization
Decarbonization initiatives are highly dependent on technological innovations in energy storage, renewable energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS). In order to become more cost-competitive with fossil fuels, solar, wind and hydroelectric power continue to expand their market share. From 2010 to 2020, the cost of electricity from solar photovoltaics has decreased by 89%, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), while offshore wind energy costs have decreased by 70%. The developments are aiding in the transition to healthier energy sources and decreasing the dependence on coal, oil and natural gas.
Direct air capture and point-source capture are being integrated into industrial processes and carbon capture technologies, particularly CCUS, have become a focal point for decarbonization. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) Sustainable Development Scenario, in which net global CO2 emissions from the energy sector are eliminated by 2070, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is responsible for the mitigation of approximately 5.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually by 2050 (GtCO2/yr), which is approximately 140 times the current level of 40 million tonnes per year.
Heavy Investment in Green Technologies
Currently, the decarbonization marketplace is most significantly driven by investment in renewable energy technologies. This transition is a component of a broader transition and the International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that the investment ratio of renewable energy to fossil fuels is now nearly two dollars per dollar of investment in fossil fuels. For instance, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 constitutes a stark U.S. example. This legislation allocates $369 billion to sustainable energy initiatives, which encompass subsidies for renewable electricity and carbon capture technologies.
Government subsidies, tax credits and financial incentives encourage the early adoption of these technologies. As an example, the International Energy Agency predicts that the investment in solar photovoltaic technology alone will surpass US$ 500 billion in 2024, which is the highest amount of investment in any single energy technology globally for new power generation. Furthermore, a significant portion of the newly acquired power will be allocated to grid infrastructure as nations intensify their efforts to integrate renewable energy sources.
Regulatory Uncertainty and Financing Challenges
Despite the global commitment to decarbonization, policy inconsistency and regulatory uncertainty remain key challenges in accelerating the transition. While many countries have established long-term climate goals, the implementation of short-term policies, particularly in developing nations, remains uneven. The International Energy Agency (IEA) calls for clearer policy signals and greater international cooperation to avoid fragmentation and ensure a smooth transition to a low-carbon economy.
Furthermore, While investment in clean energy is growing, there are still significant gaps in financing, particularly in developing nations. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) estimates that US$ 23 trillion will be required for the global transition to net-zero emissions by 2030, but current funding levels fall short. Mobilizing private sector financing, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and emerging economies, will be crucial to meeting global decarbonization targets.
The global decarbonization market is segmented based on service, technology, deployment, end-user and region.
The Demand for Renewable Energy Transition
The renewable energy sector is at the forefront of the global decarbonization market, with projections indicating that it must account for at least 90% of global power generation by 2050 in order to meet the climate targets established by international agreements. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) underscores that solar, wind and hydropower will serve as the primary sources of energy during this transition. The energy landscape is anticipated to be dominated by these renewable sources, necessitating significant investments in battery storage capacity to solve the problems associated with intermittent power supply.
Enhancing energy storage infrastructure and expanding the implemented capacity of renewable technologies are essential components of a comprehensive strategy to accomplish these ambitious objectives. Renewable energy units will be substituted for existing fossil fuel power plants during the transition, which is crucial for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. However, this transition results in elevated electricity expenses and necessitates planning to guarantee equitable energy access, as lower-income populations may be disproportionately affected.
High Technology Adoption Rates and Strong Consumer Awareness in North America
North America is currently at the forefront of the decarbonization initiative as a result of technological advancements, government incentives and regulatory frameworks. It is expected that US will remain the largest market for decarbonization technologies, such as renewable energy, electric vehicles and carbon capture methods. In comparison to emission levels in 2005, US government has committed to a 50% to 52% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030.
The reduction is accomplished through infrastructure projects and clean energy investments, which encompass the adoption of electric vehicles, the advancement of clean energy technology and the utilization and storage of carbon capture and utilization (CCUS). Similarly, the Decarbonization Incentive Program (DIP) of Canada is designed to support the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and encourage the long-term decarbonization of the country's industrial sectors. The demand for decarbonization in the region was further bolstered by this initiative.
The major global players in the market include Ernst & Young Global Limited, DNV, Armstrong International Inc., Boston Consulting Group, ABB, Deloitte, Arup, MAN, Siemens and Wartsila.
Sustainability Analysis
The decarbonization market is intrinsically linked to global sustainability objectives, focusing on reducing carbon footprints and combating climate change. As countries and organizations increasingly recognize the urgency of addressing climate issues, the demand for low-carbon technologies is surging. The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, is crucial in achieving international climate targets and fostering a sustainable future.
Moreover, many companies are committing to climate change mitigation by publicly disclosing their emissions and setting ambitious reduction targets. Initiatives like the science-based target initiatives and the UN's Global Compact are witnessing increased corporate participation, reflecting a growing recognition of sustainability's importance in business strategies. This evolution not only aids in reducing greenhouse gas emissions but also aligns with broader environmental goals, thereby paving the way for a resilient and sustainable economic future.
AI Impact
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing the decarbonization market by optimizing processes, enabling predictive analytics and driving innovative solutions that accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. AI algorithms predict energy demand patterns, helping grid operators balance supply and demand more effectively. For instance, Google DeepMind has partnered with utilities to forecast energy consumption, reducing reliance on carbon-intensive backup systems.
AI-driven systems are revolutionizing carbon emissions tracking and management, which is critical for regulatory compliance and achieving decarbonization targets. Similarly, AI supports decarbonization in transportation by optimizing logistics, improving fuel efficiency and advancing autonomous vehicle technologies. Furthermore, AI models simulate the impact of various decarbonization strategies, helping governments and organizations prioritize investments and policies.
The global decarbonization market report would provide approximately 70 tables, 70 figures and 204 pages.
Target Audience 2024
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