航空航運業脫碳（2024年）

航空和航運是減排最困難的兩個產業，因為它們需要價格具競爭力的能源密集燃料。鑑於這些要求，這兩個產業可能都需要結合能源轉型技術來實現減排。

汽車業對電動車的需求大幅成長，但航空和航運業的脫碳卻落後。這兩個行業都設定了大膽的淨零目標，以加強減排。然而，根據國際能源總署的說法，這兩個領域仍遠未實現。

對於商用飛機，重量問題和能量密度限制將電氣化限制為短程或混合解決方案。提高永續航空燃料 (SAF) 和氫氣等能源密集型替代燃料的產量和成本競爭力是長途航班脫碳的關鍵。該行業也開始探索直接從大氣中捕獲碳以抵消總排放量。

航運業處於有利地位，可以充分利用本報告中確定的所有四種能源轉型技術。附著在生質燃料和船舶廢氣上的 CCUS 裝置可即時脫碳。從長遠來看，船舶可能會被重新設計，以與氫（或氫衍生物）或電力推進系統更相容。然而，這些技術成本高昂，需要大量的政策誘因來鼓勵採用。

本報告調查並分析了航空和航運業的脫碳情況，重點介紹了電氣化、替代燃料、氫氣和碳捕獲、利用和儲存（CCUS）作為有潛力使這兩個行業脫碳的能源轉換技術，並評估其適用性。它還提供了這兩個行業最大公司排放量揭露的概況。

主要亮點

• 儘管未納入重要的 2015 年《巴黎協定》，但聯合國機構和國際海事組織等組織近年來為航空和航運業制定了大膽的減排目標。
• IEA透露，受疫情影響，民航排放量從2019年的10億噸二氧化碳減少到2020年的6億噸二氧化碳。隨著年底航班數量的增加，2021 年二氧化碳排放量將增加至 7.2 億噸。2022 年排放量仍低於疫情前的水平，但預計會出現更廣泛的復甦。民航仍是最大的個體排放源，而且這種運輸方式的排放量成長最快。
• 同樣，儘管大流行導致排放量減少，但航運業在氣候目標方面仍然落後。由於紅海地緣政治緊張局勢加劇導致船舶改道和航線延長，預計 2024 年航運排放量也會增加。
• 飛機和船舶電氣化有助於提高效率、消除廢氣排放並為再生能源的使用創造機會。然而，這兩個部門需要密集的能源。由於電池能量密度相對較低，除非能夠顯著提高效率，否則這兩個行業的電氣化暫時可能僅限於短途出行。
• 基於生物質的替代燃料提供了一種透過對現有飛機和船舶進行最小改變來實現減排的方法。許多生物燃料，例如可再生柴油和 SAF，也可以與傳統燃料混合以逐步減少排放。

目錄

• 執行摘要
• 航空和航運的碳排放
• 航空和航運對氣候變遷的影響
• 航空和航運領域實現淨零排放的進展
• 能量轉換技術簡介
• 航空、航運四大主要能源轉換技術
• 技術：脫碳潛力、階段、航空和航運適用性
• 能源轉換技術的優缺點
• 阻礙脫碳的宏觀經濟問題
• 航空和海運淨零目標和排放
• 航空業淨零目標和排放揭露
• 航運業的淨零目標和排放揭露
• 航空和航運電氣化
• 電氣化提供了短途旅行脫碳的潛力
• 航空及航海業案例研究
• 航空和航運替代燃料
• 淨零情境下的替代燃料生產
• 國家和公司的 SAF 目標
• 航空及航海業案例研究
• 氫在航空和航運的應用
• 全球氫氣生產和交通運輸領域的氫氣生產
• 航空及航海業案例研究
• CCUS在航空和海運中的應用
• 全球碳捕獲能力（2018-2030）
• 航空及航海業案例研究

Aviation and maritime represent two of the most difficult to abate sectors due to their demand for cost-competitive and energy-dense fuels. Due to this requirement, it is likely that both sectors will need to engage with a combination of energy transition technologies to achieve emissions reductions.

While the automotive sector experiences a strong growth in demand for electric vehicles, the aviation and maritime sectors have been slow to decarbonize. To incentivize emission reductions, both sectors have set bold net-zero targets. However, according to the IEA, they remain far off track.

Aviation and maritime represent two of the most difficult to abate sectors due to their demand for cost-competitive and energy-dense fuels. Due to this requirement, it is likely that both sectors will need to engage with a combination of energy transition technologies to achieve emissions reductions.

This report assesses the suitability of electrification, alternative fuels, hydrogen, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) as energy transition technologies that hold decarbonization potential for both sectors. This report also includes a snapshot of emissions disclosures for both sectors' biggest companies.

For commercial aviation, weight concerns and energy density limitations will restrict electrification to short range or hybrid solutions. Increasing production and cost competitiveness of energy-dense alternative fuels such as sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) and hydrogen will be key to decarbonizing longer-range flights. The sector is also starting to explore direct air carbon capture to offset its overall emissions.

The maritime sector is well placed to capitalize on all four of the energy transition technologies identified in this report. Biofuels as well as CCUS units fitted to ship exhausts can offer immediate decarbonization. In the long term, ships can be redesigned to increase compatibility with hydrogen (or hydrogen derivatives) and electric propulsion systems. However, the costly nature of these technologies will require substantial policy incentives to drive adoption.

Key Highlights

• Although not included in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, recent years have seen organizations such as UN bodies and the International Maritime Organization set bold emission reduction targets for the aviation and shipping sectors.
• The IEA has revealed that the pandemic caused commercial aviation emissions to drop from 1,000Mt CO2 in 2019 to 600Mt in 2020. An increase in flights towards the end of the year saw emissions increase to 720Mt CO2 in 2021. A wider rebound is expected although emissions remained below pre-pandemic levels throughout 2022. Commercial aviation remains the highest source of individual emissions and this form of transport is experiencing the fastest growth in its emissions.
• Likewise, the maritime sector also remains off track for achieving its climate targets, despite the pandemic driving a drop in emissions. Emissions from shipping are also expected to be boosted in 2024 due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea causing the diversion of ships and the extension of journeys.
• Electrifying aircraft and ships would help to increase efficiency, eliminate tailpipe emissions and create opportunities for using renewable energy. However, these two sectors require high density energy sources. The relatively low energy density of batteries will restrict the electrification of both sectors to short journeys for now, unless significant increases in efficiency can be achieved.
• Biomass-based alternative fuels offer a way of achieving emission reduction while having to make minimal changes to existing aircraft and vessels, with many biofuels such as renewable diesel and SAFs also having the capability to be blended with conventional fuels for gradual emission reduction.

Scope

• Aviation and maritime's current carbon emissions and net-zero goals.
• An overview of four technologies that will be key to decarbonizing both sectors, which include electrification, alternative fuels, hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS).
• Net-Zero targets and scope 1 and 2 emissions for the largest airlines and shipping companies
• SAF blending targets for countries and airlines
• An assessment of energy transition technologies' suitability for different use cases in aviation and maritime.
• Market forecasts for hydrogen, CCS, renewable fuels.
• A summary of challenges that will hamper the adoption of these technologies by both industries.
• Case studies from companies that are leading both sectors' decarbonization.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify the market trends of energy transition technologies within aviation and maritime.
• Develop market insight into current rates of technology adoption in aviation and maritime and the factors that will shape both sectors' decarbonization.
• Identify the companies most active within electrification, alternative fuels, hydrogen and CCUS technologies in the aviation and maritime industries.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Aviation and maritime carbon emissions
• Aviation and maritime's contribution to climate change
• Aviation and maritime's progress towards net-zero
• Introduction to energy transition technologies
• Four key energy transition technologies for aviation and maritime
• Technologies by decarbonization potential, stage, and suitability for aviation and maritime
• Advantages and disadvantages of energy transition technologies
• Macroeconomic challenges that will pose a barrier to decarbonization
• Aviation and maritime net-zero targets and emissions
• Aviation net-zero targets and emissions disclosure
• Maritime net-zero targets and emissions disclosure
• Electrifying aviation and maritime
• Electrification presents decarbonization potential for short journeys
• Case studies from aviation and maritime
• Alternative fuels in aviation and maritime
• Alternative fuel production under a net-zero scenario
• National and company SAF targets
• Case studies from aviation and maritime
• Hydrogen in aviation and maritime
• Global hydrogen production and hydrogen production for transport sector
• Case studies from aviation and maritime
• CCUS in aviation and maritime
• Global carbon capture capacity, 2018 - 2030
• Case studies from aviation and maritime

List of Tables

• Energy transition technology suitability matrix
• Advantages and disadvantages of energy transition technologies
• Airline short term emission targets
• Airline net-zero goals
• Airlines' scope 1 and 2 emissions, 2017 - 2022
• Shipping company net-zero targets
• Shipping companies' scope 1 and 2 emissions, 2018 - 2022
• An overview of national SAF blending mandates
• SAF adoption targets for the airline industry

List of Figures

• CO2 emissions by sector, 2019 - 2022
• CO2 emissions by transport sub-sector in 2022
• Carbon emissions from aviation and net zero scenario, 2000 - 2030
• Carbon emissions from shipping and net zero scenario, 2000 - 2030
• The top four energy transition technologies for aviation and maritime
• Five macroeconomic challenges that will pose a barrier to decarbonization
• Top companies by mentions of electric aircraft in company filings, 2018 - Feb 2024
• Renewable diesel and SAF production capacity, 2021 - 2030
• FAME biodiesel production capacity, 2021 - 2030
• Global low carbon hydrogen capacity, 2021 - 2030
• Low carbon hydrogen production for transport end-use sector, 2021 - 2030
• Global CCS capacity, 2021 - 2030