SAF是航空業的未來之路

航空業約佔運輸相關排放量的10%。世界各國政府已經設定了淨零目標，必須採取脫碳策略。 SAF 被公認為航空業脫碳的關鍵技術，加氫處理和電轉液（PtL）是 SAF 生產的主要途徑。公營和私營部門致力於透過設定SAF混合義務和使用目標來實現淨零目標。

加氫處理目前發揮著重要作用，因為它易於獲得並且是目前最便宜的技術。但他們面臨原料供應的問題。因此，從長遠來看，隨著低碳氫和碳捕獲基礎設施的成熟，PtL 合成燃料可能會發揮更大的作用。許多國家都已實施 SAF 混合義務，而在尚未實施強制混合義務的國家，許多航空公司也已製定了自願混合義務。航空公司計劃透過與 SAF 製造商簽訂長期貿易協議來實現這一目標。預計2020年至2030年間，SAF產能的年複合成長率將達到約68%，其中亞洲、北美和歐洲是主要供應地區。在需求方面，預計北美、歐洲和英國將成為SAF消費的主要市場。

主要亮點

• 民航業是特別難以實現脫碳的產業，其長途旅行和高能量密度要求對電氣化等能源轉型策略構成了障礙。永續航空燃料（SAF）被認為是實現減排的關鍵技術。更具體地說，加氫處理和 HEFA 目前是生產 SAF 的主要途徑，但由於原料供應有限，預計其他途徑（例如電轉液（PtL））將在長期內佔據主導地位。
• 英國、巴西、日本、新加坡、韓國、印度、印尼和歐盟 27 國等國家已經實施了燃料混合規定。
• 到2050年，亞洲、北美和歐洲將成為 SAF 的主要供應地區。
• 到2050年，北美、歐洲和英國將成為 SAF 消費的主要地區和國家。
• 航空公司目前的策略是與 SAF 製造商簽訂長期貿易合約，以確保他們擁有足夠的SAF 來履行國家混合義務並在2050年實現淨零目標。

本報告對全球航空業進行了分析，並提供了有關 SAF 在脫碳中的作用、SAF 生產途徑、國家 SAF 混合義務以及 SAF 生產能力前景的資訊。

目錄

• 執行摘要
• 航空對氣候變遷的影響
• 新加坡武裝部隊簡報
• SAF 市場的挑戰
• ASTM 核准的SAF 生產途徑
• SAF生產經歷技術改造
• PtL 技術將有助於長期擴大 SAF
• 政策展望
• SAF 混合債務概述
• 其他措施與政策發展
• 供需前景
• 基於進行和即將開展的計畫的SAF 生產前景
• 2030年生產能力最大的SAF 計畫
• 主要 SAF 供應市場
• 主要 SAF 需求市場
• SAF 行業的公司
• SAF 的當前和未來市場領導者
• 航空業的SAF 採用目標
• 訊號
• 公司文件中對 SAF 的引用
• SAF 交易活動快照
• 聯絡我們

The aviation industry contributes to approximately 10% of all transport-related emissions. With net-zero targets being set by governments around the world, decarbonization strategies need to be adopted. SAFs have been identified as a key technology to decarbonize the aviation industry, with hydrotreatment and PtL (Power to Liquid) as the dominant pathways for SAF production. Both the public and private sectors have mobilized by setting blending mandates and targets for SAF utilization to help reach net-zero goals.

The aviation industry contributes to approximately 10% of all transport-related emissions. With net-zero targets being set by governments around the world, decarbonization strategies need to be adopted. SAFs have been identified as a key technology to decarbonize the aviation industry, with hydrotreatment and Power to Liquid as the dominant pathways for SAF production. Hydrotreatment is playing a major role at present, as the technology is readily available and currently the most affordable, however, it faces issues of feedstock availability. For this reason, Power to Liquid synthetic fuels will play a greater role in the long-term, when low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture infrastructure will have reached maturity. A number of countries have set blending mandates for SAF usage, and, more prevalently in countries where mandates have not been set in place yet, numerous airlines have also set voluntary blending mandates. Airlines are planning on reaching their targets by signing long-term offtake agreements with SAF producers. With SAF capacity projected to grow at a CAGR of almost 68% between 2020 and 2030, Asia, North America, and Europe have been identified as the key regions providing the majority of said supply. On the demand side, North America, Europe, and the UK are expected to become the dominant markets for SAF consumption.

Key Highlights

• Commercial aviation represents a particularly difficult sector to decarbonize, with long distance journeys and high energy density requirements posing a barrier to energy transition strategies such as electrification, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have been identified as a key technology for achieving emission reductions. More specifically, hydrotreatment and HEFA are the currently the dominant pathways to producing SAF, however, due to their limited feedstock availability, other pathways such as PtL (Power to Liquid) will become the prevalent ones in the long-term.
• Countries such as UK, Brazil, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, India, Indonesia and EU-27 have already enforced blending mandates.
• Asia, North America, and Europe will be the dominant regions for SAF supply through 2050.
• North America, Europe, and UK will be the top regions and countries for SAF consumption through 2050.
• Airlines' strategies currently consist of securing long-term offtake agreements with SAF producers so that they may have sufficient SAF to abide by countries' blending mandates and meet net-zero targets in the run up to 2050.

Scope

• Aviation's current emissions and emission targets.
• The role SAF will play in decarbonizing the aviation sector.
• Overview of different pathways to produce SAF with particular focus to hydrotreatment and synthetic fuels.
• Overview of countries' blending mandates or support for SAFs.
• SAF capacity outlook, including upcoming biggest SAF plants by 2030 capacity, and largest producers of SAF.
• Overview of geographical distribution of present and future SAF demand and supply.
• Overview of airlines' strategies to reduce emissions.
• Overview of signals such as company filings and recent deals as a measure to understand micromovements in the SAF market.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify market trends within the aviation industry with regards to decarbonization efforts to meet net-zero targets and abide by countries' blending mandates for SAF usage.
• Identify key technologies for the decarbonization of the aviation industry, with particular focus on hydrotreatment and PtL (Power to Liquid).
• Identify which countries have already issued blending mandates, and what other countries are doing to support the development of the technology.
• Identify which countries will become the largest suppliers and consumers of SAFs.
• Develop market insight into what corporations are doing to future-proof their business, including oil and gas companies devoting part of their capacity to SAF production, and airlines signing long-term offtake agreements with SAF producers.
• Stay up to date with the latest deals within the sector, from mergers and acquisitions to venture financing, and private equity deals.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Aviation's Contribution to Climate Change
• SAF Briefing
• SAF market challenges
• ASTM approved SAF production pathways
• SAF production will undergo a technology shift
• Power to liquid technology will help scale SAFs in the long term
• Policy Outlook
• An overview of SAF blending mandates
• Additional initiatives and policy developments
• Supply and Demand Outlook
• SAF production outlook based on active and upcoming projects
• The largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
• Key SAF supply markets
• Key SAF demand markets
• SAF Industry Players
• Current and projected market leaders in SAFs
• SAF adoption targets for the airline industry
• Signals
• Mentions of SAFs within company filings
• A snapshot of SAF deal activity
• Contact us

List of Tables

• Overview of national SAF blending mandates
• Overview of national SAF support from countries lacking blending mandates
• Largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
• SAF adoption targets for the airline industry

List of Figures

• CO2 emissions by transport sub-sector in 2022
• Direct CO2 emissions from aviation in the net zero scenario, 2000-2030
• SAF suppl by technology, 2023 and 2030
• Supply by feedstock type, 2020-2050
• Upcoming low-carbon hydrogen capacity allocated to synthetic fuels and project count, 2025-2030
• Green hydrogen production by development stage, 2024-2030
• Carbon capture capacity by development stage, 2024-2030
• SAF production outlook, 2020-2030
• RD vs SAF capacity outlook, 2020-2030
• SAF supply by region, 2020-2050
• SAD demand by country, 2020-2050
• Top SAF producers by 2023 capacity
• Top SAF producers by 2030 capacity
• SAF mentions by all companies, 2018-2024
• Top oil and gas players by mentions of SAFs in company filings, 2018-2024