美國的DER(分散式能源資源)的展望，2024年

報告概要

Wood Mackenzie 的《美國 DER 年度展望》以五年回顧和五年預測的形式對 DER 發展和市場規模進行了全面分析。提供了資源類型的產能和資本支出預測、主要機會、風險和決定其成長的政策。除了單一市場規模外，還透過比較市場規模來確定分散式能源的市場佔有率，並與同一十年期間大容量發電的發展進行集體比較。調查的資源類型包括電動車充電器、分散式儲存、分散式太陽能、分散式燃料發電、熱泵、智慧恆溫器和建築自動化系統。

目錄

• 簡介和主要調查結果
• 美國的DER的未來性概要
• 分散式太陽能
• 智慧恆溫器
• 住宅用熱泵
• 商業用大樓自動化系統
• EV充電器
• 分散式蓄電池
• 分散式燃料發電
• 調查手法

Report Summary:

Wood Mackenzie's 'annual US DER outlook' provides a comprehensive analysis of DER deployment and market size across a five-year lookback and five-year forecast period. Accompanying capacity and capex forecasts for each resource type are the key opportunities, risks and policies that will determine its growth. In addition to individual coverage, market sizes are compared to determine DER market share and are compared collectively against bulk generation deployments over the same decade-long period. Resource types covered in the report include: EV chargers, distributed storage, distributed solar, distributed fuel-based generation, heat pumps, smart thermostats, and building automation systems.

Table of Contents

• Introduction and key findings (page 6)
• Overview of US DER potential (page 10)
• Distributed solar (page 18)
• Smart thermostats (page 25)
• Residential heat pumps (page 31)
• Commercial building automation systems (page 37)
• EV chargers (page 43)
• Distributed battery storage (page 48)
• Distributed fuel-based generation (page 55)
• Methodology (page 61)

Tables and charts

• Historic growth rate, DER Capacity, and capex by resource type (2019-2023)
• Forecasted growth rate, DER Capacity, and capex by resource type (2024-2028)
• Cumulative DER Capacity additions (2019-2028)
• Cumulative bulk capacity additions (2019-2028)
• Annual market share by technology
• Top 10 states by technology
• Annual DER Capacity additions by technology and customer segment (residential, non-residential)
• Annual capital expenditure by technology and customer segment (residential, non-residential)
• The smart thermostat flexible capacity funnel
• Thermostat prices over time
• US residential natural gas furnace and heat pump sales
• US residential heating system shares
• 2028 BAS penetration by building type
• Residential and non-residential installed battery energy capacity and duration