全球自動化大眾運輸市場－自動化運輸巴士和接駁巴士，市場預測（2024-2033）

幾十年來，車輛自動化一直是開發人員的白鯨。 完全無人駕駛的輕型車輛（LDV）現在在某些城市和市場變得流行。 然而，這項技術尚未被利用的一個領域是交通領域。 自動化公共交通提供了 LDV 自動化的許多好處，還有更多。 由於運輸車輛的運行設計區域有限，因此很少有例外情況。 此外，交通車輛通常在較慢的路線上行駛，這可以減少碰撞時的損壞。 此外，自動化有可能解決 COVID-19 大流行後交通機構目前面臨的許多人員配備問題，使司機能夠接受進一步培訓，專注於乘客的乘坐體驗。

自動駕駛公共交通仍處於發展的早期階段，預計 2024 年將售出 300 多輛自動駕駛汽車。 然而，到 2033 年，這一數字預計將增加到 11,500 多個。 自動公共交通仍然只佔整個交通車輛市場的一小部分，但預計在未來十年將顯著成長。

本報告審視了全球自動公共交通市場，提供銷售和收入預測、採用驅動因素和障礙的詳細資訊以及行業價值鏈分析。

目錄

第 1 章執行摘要

• 市場概覽
• 範圍
• 市場預測

第二章市場問題

• 促進因素
  • 勞動力減少
  • 安全
  • 降低成本
  • 操作空間有限
  • 輔助功能
• 屏障
  • 規則
  • 費用
  • 社會認可
  • 運輸慣性
• 定價
• 其他業務問題

第三章產業價值鏈

• 競爭狀況
  • 商業模式的演變

第四章市場預測

• 預測方法
• 市場預測
  • 世界客車市場
  • 世界交通巴士市場
  • 世界穿梭巴士市場
  • 自動交通巴士銷售
  • 自動公車收入
  • 自動穿梭巴士銷售
  • 自動穿梭巴士收入
• 預測自動穿梭巴士用例
  • 交通自動接駁巴士
  • 自動穿梭巴士作為人們的交通工具
  • 輔助交通的自動穿梭巴士

第 5 章結論/建議

• 三大要點
• 推薦
  • 運輸業者
  • 客車 OEM
  • 車輛自動化開發人員
  • 房屋開發商

第 6 章首字母縮寫詞和縮寫詞列表

第 7 章目錄

第 8 章圖表

第九章研究範圍、資訊來源與研究方法、註

Vehicle automation has been the white whale of developers for decades. Now, fully driverless light duty vehicles (LDVs) are beginning to proliferate in certain cities and markets. Where this technology has not been utilized, however, is in the transit space. Automated public transit offers many of the benefits of LDV automation and offers a few more. The limited operational design domain of transit vehicles means fewer exceptions to interrupt the vehicle. Transit vehicles also typically follow lower speed routes, reducing harm in the event of a crash. In addition, automation can potentially solve many of the staffing issues transit agencies currently face in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing drivers to be trained more to focus on passengers' riding experience.

Automated public transit is still in the nascent stages of market development, with just over 300 hands-off, eyes-off, brain-off automated transit vehicles expected to be sold in 2024. However, that number is expected to grow to over 11,500 vehicles sold in 2033. While automated public transit is still a small segment of the overall transit vehicles market, it is expected to see significant growth over the next decade.

This Guidehouse Insights report provides automated public transit market forecasts, a deep dive into the drivers and barriers to adoption, and an industry value chain analysis. It provides sales and revenue forecasts for transit automation segmented into the two main vehicle sizes for the 10-year period from 2024-2033. These forecasts are further segmented by region and use case.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Market Overview
• 1.2 Scope
• 1.3 Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Drivers
  • 2.1.1 Workforce Reductions
  • 2.1.2 Safety
  • 2.1.3 Cost Savings
  • 2.1.4 Limited Operating Spaces
  • 2.1.5 Accessibility
• 2.2 Barriers
  • 2.2.1 Regulations
  • 2.2.2 Cost
  • 2.2.3 Public Perception
  • 2.2.4 Transit Agency Inertia
• 2.3 Pricing
• 2.4 Other Business Issues

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
  • 3.1.1 Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1 Forecast Methodology
• 4.2 Market Forecasts
  • 4.2.1 Global Bus Market
  • 4.2.2 Global Transit Bus Market
  • 4.2.3 Global Shuttle Bus Market
  • 4.2.4 Automated Transit Bus Sales
  • 4.2.5 Automated Transit Bus Revenue
  • 4.2.6 Automated Shuttle Bus Sales
  • 4.2.7 Automated Shuttle Bus Revenue
• 4.3 Automated Shuttle Bus Use Case Forecasts
  • 4.3.1 Automated Shuttle Buses for Transit
  • 4.3.2 Automated Shuttle Buses as People Movers
  • 4.3.3 Automated Shuttle Buses for Paratransit

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 5.2 Recommendations
  • 5.2.1 Transit Operators
  • 5.2.2 Bus OEMs
  • 5.2.3 Vehicle Automation Developers
  • 5.2.4 Housing Developers

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Tables

• Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Shuttle Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Transit Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Transit Bus Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Bus Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Buses for Transit, Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Buses as People Movers, Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Buses for Paratransit, Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033

List of Figures

• Automated Transit Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Shuttle Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Transit Bus Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Bus Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Buses for Transit, Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Buses as People Movers, Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Buses for Paratransit, Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033

Pictorial Representation of the Industry Value Chain