美國長途卡車的電氣化

Long-Haul Truck Electrification in the US: Adoption, Infrastructure, and Energy Impacts on the US Long-Haul Truck Market, Analysis and Forecasts, 2024-2033

出版日期: 2024年09月13日 | 出版商:

Guidehouse Insights | 英文 39 Pages; 64 Tables, Charts & Figures | 訂單完成後即時交付

價格

簡介目錄圖表

產業專家預測，由於購買成本高且缺乏充電基礎設施，長途卡車將成為最後實現電氣化的車輛領域之一。2023年，美國銷售的125,000 輛半掛卡車中只有 500 輛是電動車。未來10年，州級零排放汽車銷售規定，例如加州的高級清潔卡車法規，將成為電動半拖車銷售的主要推動力。從2035年開始，電池成本的降低和充電基礎設施的發展預計將成為銷售的驅動因素。

道路充電的供電挑戰意味著道路充電埠的數量及其額定容量存在很大的不確定性。在一種情況下，卡車加油站只有兆瓦級超快速充電設備，充電時間與柴油箱加油的時間大致相同。另一種情況是將用於公路卡車的兆瓦充電器與用於長時間停放卡車的較慢充電器結合。部署遠端電氣化不僅需要解決這項挑戰，還需要確定電動拖車所需的卡車站數量。

本報告分析了美國長途卡車運輸市場及其未來十年的電氣化潛力。按動力系統和地區劃分的2024年至2033年美國長途卡車的部署和銷售預測，以及同期支援電動長途卡車營運所需的充電基礎設施和能源的預測依地區和用例顯示。

Industry experts expect long-haul trucks to be among the last automotive sectors to electrify due to their high purchase cost and the lack of available charging infrastructure. In 2023, only 500 semitruck sales out of 125,000 in the US were EVs. Over the next 10 years, the primary driver for electric semi sales will be state-level zero emissions vehicle sales mandates such as California's Advanced Clean Trucks regulation. After 2035, sales are likely to be driven by reductions in battery costs and a more established charging infrastructure.

The challenge of providing power for en route charging means a high level of uncertainty around the number of corridor ports and their rated capacity. Under one scenario, truck stops would only have ultrafast megawatt charging, and charging would take a similar amount of time as refueling a diesel tank. Another scenario would entail a combination of megawatt chargers for trucks continuing on their way and slower chargers for trucks parking for longer periods. Rolling out long-haul electrification will require addressing this challenge as well as determining the number of truck stops necessary for electric semis.

This Guidehouse Insights report analyzes the US long-haul trucking market and its potential for electrification over the next decade. It provides deployment and sales forecasts for long-haul trucks in the US from 2024-2033, broken down by powertrain and region, and forecasts for the charging infrastructure and energy needed to support electrified long-haul trucking operations for the same time period, broken down by region and use case.

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Long-Haul Charging Infrastructure
1.2 Long-Haul Electrification Impacts

2. Market Issues

2.1 Drivers
- 2.1.1 Policy Mandates
  - 2.1.1.1 Advanced Clean Trucks
  - 2.1.1.2 Advanced Clean Fleets
- 2.1.2 Cost Reductions
2.2 Barriers
- 2.2.1 Purchase Price
- 2.2.2 Infrastructure
  - 2.2.2.1 Market Manipulation
- 2.2.3 Limited Production Capacity
- 2.2.4 Vehicle Weight

3. Industry Value Chain

3.1 Competitive Landscape
- 3.1.1 Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trucks
- 3.1.2 M&A Activities
- 3.1.3 Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

4.1 BEV Adoption
4.2 Individually Owned Trucks
- 4.2.1 Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service
- 4.2.2 Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales
4.3 Fleet-Owned Trucks
- 4.3.1 Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service
- 4.3.2 Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales
4.4 Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging
4.5 Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

5.1 Three Big Takeaways
5.2 Recommendations
- 5.2.1 Fleet Managers
- 5.2.2 OEMs
- 5.2.3 Truck Stop Operators
- 5.2.4 Utilities
- 5.2.5 Government Agencies

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

簡介目錄圖表

List of Tables

Total Long-Haul Truck Sales by Region, US: 2024-2033
Total Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
Total Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Region, US: 2024-2033
Total Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Region, US: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Midwest: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Northeast: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Southeast: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Southwest: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US West: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Region, US: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Midwest: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Northeast: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Southeast: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Southwest: 2024-2033
Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US West: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Region, US: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Midwest: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Northeast: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Southeast: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Southwest: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US West: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Region, US: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Midwest: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Northeast: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Southeast: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Southwest: 2024-2033
Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US West: 2024-2033
Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Region, US: 2024-2033
Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US: 2024-2033
Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US Midwest: 2024-2033
Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US Northeast: 2024-2033
Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US Southeast: 2024-2033
Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US Southwest: 2024-2033
Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US West: 2024-2033
Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Region, US: 2024-2033
Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US: 2024-2033
Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US Midwest: 2024-2033
Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US Northeast: 2024-2033
Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US Southeast: 2024-2033
Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US Southwest: 2024-2033
Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US West: 2024-2033