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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1587642
2030 年碳氫化合物市場預測:按類型、來源、應用和地區分類的全球分析Hydrocarbon Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Type (Aliphatic Hydrocarbons, Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Other Types), Source, Application and By Geography |
根據Stratistics MRC預測,2024年全球碳氫化合物市場規模將達到4,381億美元,預計2030年將達到6,286億美元,預測期內複合年成長率為6.2%。
碳氫化合物是由氫和碳原子組成的有機化合物,作為原油、天然氣、煤炭等石化燃料的主要成分,在能源領域至關重要。碳氫化合物有兩種:脂肪族和芳香族。根據其分子結構和大小,碳氫化合物在室溫下以氣態、液態或固體存在。這些碳氫化合物用於能源生產以及塑膠、溶劑等的製造。
根據牛津經濟研究院預測,到2030年,全球建築業產值預計將成長85%,達到15.5兆美元,其中三個領先國家是美國、中國和印度。
全球能源需求增加
碳氫化合物在運輸、製造和發電等領域中發揮著重要作用。對建築、電子和汽車中必不可少的碳氫化合物石化產品的需求不斷增加,進一步擴大了碳氫化合物的應用範圍。能源需求的成長正在吸引對碳氫化合物領域的投資,從而導致新領域的開發和技術創新,從而提高開採和生產效率。
環境問題
世界各國政府正在製定更嚴格的法律來減少碳氫化合物的二氧化碳排放。這些法律包括限制採礦、碳排放稅以及推廣綠色能源來源以限制其擴張。此外,環境問題導致公眾對碳氫化合物公司的審查力度加大,使其難以獲得社會許可,並面臨相關人員和當地社區的強烈反對,導致計劃核准也可能難以擴大。
採礦和生產技術創新
水平鑽井和水力壓裂等技術的進步大大提高了碳氫化合物開採的效率,使得開採以前無法開採的石油和天然氣礦床成為可能,特別是在頁岩地層中。因此,美國的頁岩油氣產量正在迅速增加,並且透過增加產量和降低營運成本,它們正在增加在全球市場的影響力。
與自然能源的競爭
國際能源總署(IEA)表示,隨著各國轉向水力發電、風能和太陽能等清潔能源來源,對石化燃料的需求預計將下降。特別是,再生能源來源的使用不斷增加的交通和發電行業預計將阻礙市場成長。
COVID-19大流行對碳氫化合物市場產生了嚴重影響,由於停工和經濟活動減少,導致全球需求急劇下降。主要產油國實施減產穩定物價,新計畫投資明顯放緩。隨著經濟逐步重新開放,需求已開始復甦,但向可再生能源的轉變和對石化燃料的更嚴格監管引起了碳氫化合物行業的長期擔憂。
預計脂肪烴產業在預測期內將是最大的
預計脂肪族碳氫化合物領域將在整個預測期內獲得最大的市場佔有率。這是因為脂肪族烴是各領域不可或缺的原料。脂肪烴主要用於生產化學中間體、潤滑劑和溶劑。此外,由於其高適應性,在建築、汽車、製藥等行業的需求量很大,使其在碳氫化合物行業中變得越來越重要。
預計液化石油氣產業在預測期間內複合年成長率最高
液化石油氣產業預計將在預測期內顯著成長,因為它是一種用途廣泛的能源來源,用於住宅供暖、烹飪、工業加工和運輸等各個行業。它也是石化產品的關鍵原料,增加了在碳氫化合物市場的重要性。低碳排放使其成為永續性目標的一個有吸引力的選擇,並且與全球脫碳努力的結合支持了市場的進一步成長。
預計北美地區在估計期間將佔據最大的市場佔有率。水平鑽井和水力壓裂等技術創新大大擴大了美國頁岩氣產業的碳氫化合物供應。因此,國內產量也在增加。隨著北美經歷人口成長、都市化和工業化,碳氫化合物對於供暖、發電和運輸至關重要。
預計亞太地區在預測期內的複合年成長率最高。這是因為政府政策、能源基礎設施投資和法律規範對於確保該地區的能源供應和促進探勘和生產活動至關重要。包裝、建築和醫療保健等行業對石化產品的需求不斷增加,進一步刺激了對碳氫化合物的需求並推動市場成長。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Hydrocarbon Market is accounted for $438.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $628.6 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 6.2% during the forecast period. Hydrocarbons are organic compounds made up of hydrogen and carbon atoms, essential in the energy sector as primary components of fossil fuels like crude oil, natural gas, and coal. They can be aliphatic or aromatic, with aliphatic hydrocarbons being alkanes, alkenes, and alkynes, and aromatic hydrocarbons having aromatic rings. Hydrocarbons can exist in gaseous, liquid, or solid states at room temperature, depending on their molecular structure and size. These hydrocarbons are used in energy production and manufacturing products like plastics and solvents.
According to Oxford Economics, it is estimated that the global construction industry output increase by 85% to reach US$ 15.5 Tn by 2030, with the three major countries -the U.S., China, and India.
Increasing global energy demand
Hydrocarbons are crucial in sectors like transportation, manufacturing, and power generation. The increasing demand for petrochemical products from hydrocarbons, essential in construction, electronics, and automotive, further expands the scope of hydrocarbon applications. This growth in energy demand attracts investments in the hydrocarbon sector, leading to the development of new fields and technological innovations improving extraction and production efficiency.
Environmental concerns
Stricter laws are being put in place by governments all over the world to lower carbon emissions from hydrocarbons. These laws include restrictions on extraction, carbon taxes, and the promotion of greener energy sources limiting their ability to expand. Further, environmental concerns have raised public scrutiny of hydrocarbon corporations, which could lead to social license difficulties and pushback from stakeholders and communities, making project approvals and expansions more difficult.
Innovations in extraction and production technologies
Advances in technology such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have greatly increased the efficiency of hydrocarbon extraction, making it possible to recover previously unreachable oil and gas deposits, particularly in shale formations. As a result, shale oil and gas production has surged in nations like the US due to higher output levels and reduced operating costs boosting the global market presence.
Competition from renewables
The demand for fossil fuels is expected to decrease as nations switch to cleaner energy sources like hydropower, wind, and solar, according to the International Energy Agency. This change, which is motivated by climate goals, is anticipated to have an effect on the market share of hydrocarbons, especially in the transportation and power generating industries where renewable energy sources are being utilized more and more hampering the market growth.
The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the hydrocarbon market, leading to a dramatic decline in global demand due to lockdowns and reduced economic activity. Production cuts were implemented by major oil-producing nations to stabilize prices, while investments in new projects slowed significantly. As economies gradually reopened, demand began to recover, but the shift towards renewable energy sources and increased regulatory scrutiny of fossil fuels raised long-term concerns for the hydrocarbon sector.
The aliphatic hydrocarbons segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The aliphatic hydrocarbons segment is predicted to secure the largest market share throughout the forecast period because in many different sectors, aliphatic hydrocarbons are essential raw materials. They are mostly employed in the production of chemical intermediates, lubricants, and solvents. In addition their adaptability fuels substantial demand in industries like construction, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, hence reinforcing their significance in the hydrocarbon industry.
The liquefied petroleum gas segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The liquefied petroleum gas segment is projected to witness substantial growth during the projection period as it is a versatile energy source used in various sectors, including residential heating, cooking, industrial processes, and transportation. It's also a key feedstock for petrochemicals, enhancing its importance in the hydrocarbon market. Its lower carbon emissions make it an attractive option for sustainability targets, aligning with global decarbonization efforts thereby encouraging in further market growth.
During the estimation period, the North America region is expected to capture the largest market share owing to technological innovations like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, the US shale gas sector has greatly expanded the supply of hydrocarbons. As a result, domestic production has increased. Hydrocarbons are essential for heating, power production, and transportation in North America due to the region's expanding population, urbanization, and industrialization.
Over the forecasted timeframe, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR due to government policies and investments in energy infrastructure and regulatory frameworks are crucial for securing energy supply and promoting exploration and production activities in the region. The increasing demand for petrochemicals in industries like packaging, construction, and healthcare further stimulates hydrocarbon demand, enhancing market growth.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Hydrocarbon Market include Celanese Corporation, Chevron Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, Dow, DuPont, Eastman Chemical Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd., Lesco Chemical Limited, LyondellBasell Industries Holdings B.V, Recochem Corporation, Reliance Industries Limited., Royal Dutch Shell, Saudi Arabian Oil Co and TotalEnergies.
In April 2024, Celanese Corporation announced several strategic milestones at its Clear Lake, Texas, and Nanjing, China, plants to enhance the competitive cost position, sustainable footprint and operational flexibility of the Acetyl Chain (AC) business and allow it to meet future demand growth.
In October 2024, DuPont announced the successful completion of a significant expansion for photoresist manufacturing capacity at the DuPont Sasakami Site in Agano-shi, Niigata, Japan. The project was celebrated with a traditional Japanese Tamagushi Houten Ceremony, symbolizing wishes for continued success, prosperity and peace.
In October 2024, Exxon Mobil Corporation has executed the largest offshore carbon dioxide (CO2) storage lease in the U.S. with the Texas General Land Office (GLO). The over 271,000-acre site complements the onshore CO2 storage portfolio ExxonMobil is developing, and further solidifies the U.S. Gulf Coast as a carbon capture and storage (CCS) leader.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.