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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1617221
汽車變速箱市場至2030年的預測:按類型、車型、材料和地區分類的全球分析Automotive Gearbox Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Type, Vehicle Type, Material and By Geography |
根據Stratistics MRC預測,2024年全球汽車變速箱市場規模將達到681億美元,預計2030年將達到1,046億美元,預測期內年複合成長率為7.4%。
汽車變速箱是車輛的傳動系統,它將動力從引擎傳輸到車輪,使車輛能夠以不同的速度和扭力等級行駛。變速箱充當一組齒輪和齒輪機構,允許駕駛員根據不同的駕駛條件選擇最佳的傳動比。變速箱透過調整傳動比,確保引擎高效運行,平衡速度和扭矩,提高車輛性能和燃油經濟性,並確保引擎在最佳範圍內運行,確保平穩運行。
電動車日益普及
電動車(EV)的興起導致了向專用齒輪系統的轉變,使製造商能夠引進先進、高效的變速箱解決方案。變速箱技術的創新使製造商能夠實現產品多樣化,包括齒輪減速系統和變速箱,目的是處理馬達的獨特特性,例如低速高扭矩。這種市場擴張為變速箱製造商創造了新的機會。
先進變速箱系統高成本
先進的變速箱系統,例如雙離合器變速箱和無段變速箱,由於其複雜的工程和製造成本,製造成本昂貴,導致車輛價格增加,使消費者難以承受,並且需求可能會減少。此外,這些系統的高成本可能會限制其在消費價格分佈區間的採用。價格分佈和中檔車輛可能會繼續依賴傳統的手動或簡單的自動變速箱,形成市場鴻溝,只有某些細分市場才能受益於最新的變速箱技術。
傳輸技術的進步
雙離合器變速箱、無段變速箱和先進的自動齒輪系統等車輛技術的進步,透過更平穩的換檔、更好的動力傳輸和改進的加速性能來提高車輛性能。現代變速箱技術通常與 ADAS(高級駕駛輔助系統)整合,具有主動式車距維持定速系統和自動換檔等功能,創造更好的駕駛體驗並推動市場成長。
複雜的製造程序
複雜的製造流程會延長汽車齒輪系統的前置作業時間,導致供應鏈效率低落和市場短缺。這些變速箱容易磨損,需要先進的維護和修理程序,導致維護成本較高,並且需要專業維修,這會阻礙消費者購買具有此類變速箱的汽車,阻礙市場成長。
COVID-19 的影響
COVID-19 的爆發對汽車變速箱市場產生了重大影響,導致供應鏈中斷、製造延誤以及由於經濟不確定性而導致的消費者需求減少。封鎖和監管導致工廠關閉和勞動力短缺,擾亂了生產和分銷。然而,隨著經濟重新開放以及製造商適應健康通訊協定和數位解決方案,市場開始復甦,促進創新和未來成長的新策略。
預計手排變速箱領域在預測期內將是最大的
預計手排變速箱領域將在預測期內佔據最大的市場佔有率。在駕駛愛好者更喜歡對換檔進行更多控制的地區,手排變速箱受到高度重視,支持了所需的細分市場。手排變速箱還具有更高的燃油效率,吸引了尋求最佳燃油效率並持續對手排系統(尤其是燃油經濟性技術市場)感興趣的市場驅動者。
商用和工業車輛領域預計在預測期內年複合成長率最高
由於商用和工業車輛能夠處理高負載和惡劣的工作條件,預計在預測期內汽車變速箱市場的年複合成長率最高。這種需求是由對先進和專業變速箱系統的需求所驅動的。此外,包括多速變速箱在內的重型變速箱銷售的成長也增強了這些先進系統的市場。
由於雙離合器變速箱和無段變速箱等先進變速箱技術的整合,提高了車輛性能和燃油效率,預計北美在預測期內將佔據最大的市場佔有率。隨著電動和混合動力汽車產量的增加,對適應馬達獨特功率特性的專用齒輪系統的需求增加,推動了該地區的市場成長。
預計亞太地區在估計期內將實現最高成長率。這是因為亞太國家實施更嚴格的排放法規,鼓勵汽車製造商採用高效傳動技術來減少燃料消費量和二氧化碳排放。在中國、日本和韓國等國家,電動和混合動力汽車的激勵和補貼推動動力傳動系統和變速箱系統相關新技術的採用。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Automotive Gearbox Market is accounted for $68.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $104.6 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 7.4% during the forecast period. An automotive gearbox is a vehicle's drivetrain system that transmits power from the engine to the wheels, enabling the vehicle to move at different speeds and torque levels. It functions as a set of gears and gear mechanisms that allow the driver to select the optimal gear ratio for various driving conditions. By adjusting the gear ratio, the gearbox ensures that the engine operates efficiently, balancing speed and torque to improve vehicle performance, fuel efficiency and ensuring a smooth driving experience by allowing the engine to operate within its optimal range.
Growing popularity of electric vehicles
The rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has led to a shift towards specialized gear systems, allowing manufacturers to introduce advanced, efficient transmission solutions. This innovation in gearbox technology has allowed manufacturers to diversify their offerings, including gear reduction systems and transmissions designed to handle the unique characteristics of electric motors, such as high torque at low speeds. This market expansion has created new opportunities for gearbox manufacturers.
High costs of advanced gearbox systems
Advanced gearbox systems, like dual-clutch transmissions and continuously variable transmissions, are expensive to produce due to their complex engineering and manufacturing costs increasing vehicle prices, making them less affordable for consumers and potentially reducing demand. Additionally, the high cost of these systems may limit their adoption in budget segments, as budget and mid-range vehicles may continue to rely on traditional manual or simple automatic gearboxes, creating a market disparity where only certain segments benefit from the latest gearbox technologies.
Advancements in transmission technologies
Advancements in vehicle technology, such as dual-clutch transmissions, continuously variable transmissions, and advanced automatic gear systems, improve vehicle performance by smoother gear shifts, better power delivery, and enhanced acceleration. Modern transmission technologies often integrate with advanced driver assistance systems, creating an enhanced driving experience with features like adaptive cruise control and automated gear shifting propelling the market growth.
Complex manufacturing processes
Complex manufacturing processes can lead to longer lead times for automotive gear systems, causing supply chain inefficiencies and market shortages. These gearboxes are more prone to wear and require advanced maintenance and repair procedures, potentially deterring consumers from investing in vehicles with such transmissions due to higher maintenance costs and specialized service requirements impeding the market growth.
Covid-19 Impact
The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the automotive gearbox market, leading to disruptions in supply chains, manufacturing delays, and reduced consumer demand due to economic uncertainty. Lockdowns and restrictions caused factory closures and labor shortages, slowing production and distribution. However, as economies reopened and manufacturers adapted with health protocols and digital solutions, the market began to recover, fostering innovation and new strategies for future growth.
The manual transmission segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
Over the estimation period, the manual transmission segment is likely to capture the largest market share because manual transmissions are highly valued in regions where driving enthusiasts prefer greater control over gear shifts, supporting a segment of the market where manual gearboxes are a desired feature. They also offer better fuel efficiency, appealing to drivers seeking optimal fuel economy, sustaining interest in manual systems, especially in fuel-saving technologies markets.
The commercial & industrial vehicles segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The commercial & industrial vehicles segment is projected to have the highest CAGR in the automotive gearbox market during the extrapolated period due to their ability to handle heavy loads and demanding driving conditions. This demand is driven by the need for advanced and specialized gearbox systems. Additionally, the growth in heavy-duty transmission sales, including multi-speed transmissions, is enhancing the market for these advanced systems.
North America is projected to hold the largest market share during the forecast period owing to the integration of advanced transmission technologies, such as dual-clutch and continuously variable transmissions, has improved vehicle performance and fuel efficiency in North America. As electric and hybrid vehicle production increases, the demand for specialized gear systems to handle electric motors' unique power characteristics is increasing enhancing the regions market growth.
During the estimation period, the Asia Pacific region is forecasted to record the highest growth rate because Asia Pacific countries are implementing stricter emissions regulations, encouraging automakers to adopt efficient transmission technologies to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Incentives and subsidies for electric vehicles and hybrids in countries like China, Japan, and South Korea encourage the adoption of new technologies related to powertrain and gearbox systems.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Automotive Gearbox market include Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd., Allison Transmission, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc., BorgWarner Inc., Eaton Corporation plc, GKN Automotive Limited, Hyundai Powertech, Jatco Ltd, Magna International Inc., Ricardo, Schaeffler, Voith Group and ZF Friedrichshafen AG.
In November 2024, Schaeffler AG has agreed on structural measures with a regional focus on Germany and Europe aimed at securing a long-term increase in the company's competitiveness. The decision comes in response to the challenging market environment, the increasing intensity of global competition, and ongoing transformation.
In September 2024, Eaton announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Government of Tamil Nadu. This agreement marks a significant step in Eaton's expansion plans for its Crouse-Hinds and B-Line business, reinforcing the company's commitment to driving.