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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1700041
2032 年超低硫燃料油市場預測:按來源、硫含量、黏度等級、合規策略、技術、應用、最終用戶和地區進行的全球分析Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Source, Sulfur Content, Viscosity Grade, Compliance Strategy, Technology, Application, End User and By Geography |
根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,全球極低硫燃料油 (VLSFO) 市場預計在 2025 年達到 964.9 億美元,到 2032 年將達到 1,637.8 億美元,預測期內的複合年成長率為 7.85%。
VLSFO(極低硫燃料油)是一種船用燃料,符合國際海事組織(IMO)的規定,該規定將燃料的硫含量限制在 0.5% 或更低。使用VLSFO取代傳統的高硫燃料油(HSFO)有助於減少環境污染,尤其是硫氧化物(SOx)的排放。它是作為國際海事組織 2020 年減少船舶硫排放指令的一部分而推出的。此外,VLSFO 通常是各種煉油廠流體的混合物,這意味著它們的黏度和成分會根據來源而變化。
根據國際海事組織 (IMO) 的數據,全球大多數船舶正在從重質燃料油 (HFO) 過渡到極低硫燃料油 (VLSFO),以符合 IMO 2020 年將船用燃料含硫量限制在 0.5% 的規定。
國際海上貿易成長
國際航運是國際貿易的基礎,佔世界貿易量的近90%。對消費品、能源資源和原料的需求不斷成長,尤其是來自中國、印度和美國等經濟體的需求,正在增加海上運輸量和對 VLSFO 等船用燃料的需求。此外,電子商務和全球供應鏈的加速成長使得運輸效率變得越來越重要,促使營運商使用像VLSFO這樣經濟合法的燃料。
價格波動和供應鏈中斷
由於原油價格、精製能力和區域需求波動,極低硫燃料油(VLSFO)價格波動很大。由於 VLSFO 生產依賴於從原油中去除硫的精製工藝,精製停工、地緣政治衝突以及 COVID-19 疫情等全球危機都可能導致供不應求和價格上漲。此外,VLSFO 供應的地區差異可能導致某些市場價格上漲,迫使船舶營運商定期修改其燃料採購計畫。
擴大對低硫燃料生產和煉油廠維修的投資
自國際海事組織 2020 年法規實施以來,世界各地的煉油廠都在大力投資更新其脫硫裝置和加氫裂解程序,以增加低硫船用燃料的產量。為了滿足海運業日益成長的需求,新加坡、鹿特丹、休士頓和富查伊拉等主要精製中心正在增加其 VLSFO 的儲存和銷售能力。此外,私人公司和國家石油公司正在研究尖端精製方法,以提高燃料穩定性和效率,確保穩定的供應和高品質。
未來排放法規和監管不確定性的增加
進一步收緊環境法規可能會限制包括 VLSFO 在內的石化燃料船用燃料的使用。作為國際海事組織新舉措的一部分,正在討論對船用燃料徵收碳排放稅以及實施更嚴格的碳強度限制。如果監管機構對船用燃料徵收碳課稅或額外的排放目標,替代能源可能會變得更具吸引力,從而大大增加 VLSFO 的成本。此外,一些司法管轄區(例如歐盟)已針對航運業實施了排放交易系統(ETS),其他司法管轄區也可能跟進。
由於航運活動減少、國際貿易中斷以及原油價格波動,極低硫燃料油 (VLSFO) 市場受到 COVID-19 疫情的嚴重影響。受航運停運和景氣衰退影響,全球航運需求急劇下降,尤其是油輪、郵輪和貨櫃船等產業。這導致包括 VLSFO 在內的船用燃料使用量整體下降。 2020 年初原油價格暴跌縮小了 VLSFO 和 HSFO 之間的價差,使得洗滌器投資吸引力降低,並暫時穩定了 VLSFO 的需求。然而,VLSFO 市場的區域短缺和價格波動是由物流延遲、供應鏈限制和煉油廠營運不穩定造成的。
預計煉油部門將成為預測期內最大的部門
預計煉油廠部門將在預測期內佔據最大的市場佔有率。煉油廠正在調整原油加工方法,改善脫硫設施,並增加對渣油升級技術的投資,以生產符合國際海事組織 2020 年規定的低硫船用燃料。為了滿足對 VLSFO 日益成長的需求並保持盈利,一些擁有加氫裂解、焦化和脫硫能力的先進煉油廠具有優勢。此外,原油供應靈活的煉油廠還可以使用加氫處理技術並混合低硫原料,以確保穩定供應符合國際海事組織規定的燃料。
預計預測期內 MGO(船用瓦斯油)部分將以最高的複合年成長率成長。
預計船用燃氣油(MGO)領域將在預測期內實現最高成長率,因為它被廣泛用作必須符合國際海事組織 2020 年硫含量規定的船舶的替代燃料。與 IFO 180 和 IFO 380 等傳統殘渣燃料相比,MGO 是一種含硫量明顯較低的餾分燃料,對於希望避免安裝昂貴的廢氣淨化系統的船舶營運商來說,這是一種理想的選擇。此外,MGO 還具有提高燃燒效率、降低維護成本和減少顆粒物排放等營運優勢,符合海運領域日益嚴格的環境法規。
預計亞太地區將在預測期內佔據最大的市場佔有率,這主要歸因於高海運貿易量、廣泛的煉油基礎設施以及新加坡、中國和韓國等主要加油中心。作為世界上最大的加油港,新加坡對於 VLSFO 的供應至關重要,其享有盛譽的煉油廠和混合設施可確保穩定供應符合 IMO 2020 標準的燃料。中國也是一個主要參與企業,因為它正在透過煉油廠升級和政府激勵措施增加國內 VLSFO 產量並減少對進口的依賴。此外,航運和物流業的蓬勃發展也推動了對低硫船用燃料的需求,這在日本和印度等大型經濟體中尤其普遍。
預計預測期內中東和非洲的複合年成長率最高。沙烏地阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合大公國和科威特是該地區最大的原油生產國之一,它們正在大力投資現代化煉油廠,以生產符合 IMO 2020 標準的燃料。此外,加油中心的快速擴張,特別是在富查伊拉(阿拉伯聯合大公國)、蘇哈爾(阿曼)和德班(南非),增加了 VLSFO 的供應,使該地區成為國際航運航線的重要加油樞紐。由於政府努力實現精製工藝現代化、增加燃料出口並遵守國際排放標準,M&A VLSFO 市場正在蓬勃發展。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) Market is accounted for $96.49 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $163.78 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 7.85% during the forecast period. VLSFO, or very low sulfur fuel oil, is a marine fuel that conforms to the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) rules that restrict the amount of sulfur in fuel to no more than 0.5%. In lieu of conventional high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO), VLSFO helps reduce environmental pollution, especially sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions. It was introduced as part of the IMO 2020 mandate to reduce sulfur emissions from ships. Moreover, the viscosity and composition vary depending on the supplier because it is usually a blend of various refinery streams.
According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the majority of ships worldwide have transitioned from using heavy fuel oil (HFO) to very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) to comply with the IMO 2020 regulation, which limits the sulfur content in marine fuels to 0.5%.
Increase in international maritime trade
The foundation of international trade, accounting for almost 90% of global trade volumes, is international shipping. Marine traffic and the demand for marine fuels like VLSFO have increased due to the growing demand for consumer goods, energy resources, and raw materials, especially from economies like China, India, and the United States. Additionally, as e-commerce and global supply chains grow at an accelerated rate, shipping efficiency has become increasingly important, pushing operators to use economical and legally compliant fuels like VLSFO.
Price fluctuations and interruptions in the supply chain
The price of Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) is highly volatile due to fluctuations in crude oil prices, refining capacity, and regional demand variations. Refinery shutdowns, geopolitical conflicts, and global crises like the COVID-19 pandemic can all cause supply shortages and price spikes because VLSFO production relies on refining processes that remove sulfur from crude oil. Furthermore, a regional disparity in VLSFO availability may result in higher prices in particular markets, requiring ship operators to regularly modify their fuel procurement plans.
Growing investments in low-sulfur fuel production and refinery upgrades
Refineries all over the world have been making significant investments in modernizing desulfurization units and hydro cracking procedures in order to increase the production of low-sulfur marine fuels since the implementation of IMO 2020 regulations. To accommodate the increasing demands of the maritime sector, major refining hubs like Singapore, Rotterdam, Houston, and Fujairah are increasing their VLSFO storage and distribution capacities. Moreover, private refiners and national oil companies are investigating cutting-edge refining methods to improve fuel stability and efficiency, guaranteeing a steady supply and higher quality.
Increasing future emission limits and regulatory uncertainty
The use of fossil-based marine fuels, including VLSFO, may be restricted if environmental regulations are tightened further, even though IMO 2020 regulations required a global sulfur cap of 0.5%. Potential carbon taxes on marine fuels and more stringent carbon intensity regulations are being discussed as part of new IMO policies. Alternative energy sources may become more appealing if regulatory agencies impose carbon levies or additional emission reduction targets on bunker fuels, which would raise the cost of VLSFO considerably. Additionally, Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) have already been implemented for the shipping industry in some regions, such as the European Union (EU), and other regions may follow suit.
The market for Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) was significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, mostly as a result of decreased maritime activity, disruptions in international trade, and volatile crude oil prices. The demand for shipping worldwide fell precipitously as a result of the lockdowns and economic downturns, especially in industries like oil tankers, cruise lines, and container shipping. This decreased the amount of bunker fuel used overall, including VLSFO. The early 2020 crude oil price collapse led to smaller price differences between VLSFO and HSFO, which reduced the appeal of scrubber investments and momentarily stabilized the demand for VLSFO. However, regional shortages and price volatility in the VLSFO market were brought on by logistical delays, supply chain limitations, and irregular refinery operations.
The Refinery segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The Refinery segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period. Refineries have adjusted their crude processing methods, improved their desulfurization facilities, and increased their investments in residue upgrading technologies in order to produce low-sulfur bunker fuels in compliance with IMO 2020 regulations. In order to meet the growing demand for VLSFO while retaining profitability, numerous sophisticated refineries possessing hydro cracking, coking, and desulfurization capabilities are at an advantage. Moreover, refineries equipped with flexible crude slates can also use hydro processing techniques or blend low-sulfur feedstocks to guarantee a consistent supply of fuels that comply with IMO regulations.
The MGO (Marine Gas Oil) segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the MGO (Marine Gas Oil) segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, driven by its extensive use as a substitute fuel for ships that must adhere to the IMO 2020 sulfur regulations. Compared to conventional residual fuels like IFO 180 and IFO 380, MGO is a distillate fuel with a substantially lower sulfur content, which makes it a desirable option for ship operators who want to avoid the expensive installation of exhaust gas cleaning systems. Furthermore, MGO provides operational benefits that are in line with the expanding environmental regulations in the maritime sector, such as improved combustion efficiency, lower maintenance costs, and decreased particulate emissions.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to hold the largest market share, primarily due to its high maritime trade volume, extensive refinery infrastructure, and major bunker hubs such as Singapore, China, and South Korea. With reputable refineries and blending facilities guaranteeing a consistent supply of IMO 2020-compliant fuels, Singapore, the largest bunkering port in the world, is essential to the supply of VLSFO. China has become a major player as well, increasing its domestic production of VLSFO through refinery upgrades and government incentives, which has decreased its dependency on imports. Moreover, the need for low-sulfur marine fuels is also fueled by the robust shipping and logistics sectors, which are especially prevalent in large economies like Japan and India.
Over the forecast period, the Middle East & Africa region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, some of the biggest producers of crude oil in the region, are making significant investments in modernizing refineries to create fuels that comply with IMO 2020. Furthermore, as bunker hubs expand quickly, especially in Fujairah (UAE), Sohar (Oman), and Durban (South Africa), VLSFO availability is increasing, making the area a crucial fueling stop for international shipping routes. The M&A VLSFO market is growing rapidly due to government initiatives to modernize refining processes, increase fuel exports, and adhere to international emission standards.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) Market include Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Exxon Mobil, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Sinopec Inc, TotalEnergies, Valero Energy, Phillips 66, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), Chevron, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Shell, Marathon Petroleum, Qatar Energy (QE), China Marine Bunker Co., Ltd. and Singapore Refining Company (SRC).
In February 2025, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) signed a strategic term contract with TotalEnergies Trading Asia Pte Ltd for the supply of Middle Eastern crude oil to BPCL. The contract, which is valid for one year from April 2025 to March 2026, will ensure a "steady and competitive" supply of crude oil to BPCL's refineries.
In December 2024, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) has signed an agreement with NICDC Logistics Data Services Ltd. (NLDS) to integrate its APIs with Unified Logistics Interface Platform (ULIP). This partnership is a significant step towards enhancing transparency, operational efficiency, and innovation in India's logistics sector.
In September 2024, Exxon Mobil Corporation and Mitsubishi Corporation have signed a Project Framework Agreement for Mitsubishi Corporation's participation in ExxonMobil's facility in Baytown, Texas which is expected to produce virtually carbon-free hydrogen with approximately 98% of carbon dioxide (CO2) removed and low-carbon ammonia.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.