開放 vRAN 全球市場 (2024年 9月)

Open vRAN Market Report, September 2024

出版日期: 2024年09月17日 | 出版商:

Teral Research | 英文 | 商品交期: 請詢問到貨日

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簡介目錄

本報告深入探討了無線存取網路 (RAN) 虛擬化和去中心化，從基本的RAN功能虛擬化 (vRAN) 到Open RAN等新的開放架構- 遵循 TIP Initiative 和 O-RAN 聯盟規範，減少對傳統供應商提供的專用RAN設備的依賴- 分析各種想法。vRAN細分資料是根據現有RAN市場規模及其預測來推斷的，依地區分為2G/3G/4G和5G、vCU/vDU和RU，以及也考慮室內DAS替代需求的可能性。本報告涵蓋了廣泛且新興的供應商生態系統。最後，因為Open RAN 95%以上都是vRAN，稱這個市場為Open vRAN。

2024年上半年：商業開發活動普遍疲弱
- 整體而言，2024年上半年的發展好壞參半
- 供應商領導委員會幾乎沒有變化：只有排名前四的公司在交換地位
- NEC 和Samsung是 RU主要供應商Fujitsu和Rakuten Symphony主導 CU/DU
測試、檢驗和認證工作不斷擴大，RFP/RFI 迅速增加
- 最初處於領先地位的Orange、Telefonica 和 TIM 採取觀望態度。

市場低迷也將持續一年，但2025年將是突破之年：你準備好起飛了嗎？

由於 AT&T 部署，估計2024年下半年將顯著成長，2024年第一季的預測不變
2025年將是全球轉型的一年
- 開放式 vRAN 在全球傳統 RAN 銷售的滲透率：從2024年的4.6%到2029年的29%
- 亞太地區目前是全球最大的開放 vRAN 市場，但美國經歷重大覺醒。
- 在投資 Open RAN 的國家中，美國的目標是佔據國際主導地位
- 因此，2025年 RAN 在北美的銷售滲透率將達到20%，到2029年將達到 58%
- 幾乎所有商業 Open RAN 網路都將在軟體中運行 RAN 功能
- vRAN 和 Open RAN：兩種不同的配置
- Dish 和 Rakuten Mobile 將雲端 RAN 推向黃金時段
- 最後，應該指出的是，Open RAN 最初是一種非虛擬架構。

雖然開放 vRAN 復興開始，但生態系統的可持續性面臨壓力

雖然老問題依然存在，但反對派的主張依然堅定不移
同時，龐大的Open RAN 生態系統不斷發展、整合、重建和資本化。
- 早期的Open RAN 採用者採用了多供應商方法
- 目前正受到這場復興的棕地採用者和建築師的攻擊
- 在這個5G高峰已經過去的時代，一級CSP被愛立信和諾基亞龐大的5G足跡所鎖定
- 現階段，主要的1 級 CSP 嘗試採取與 AT&T 相同的做法，並嚴重依賴單一主要供應商進行開放式 vRAN 部署。
- 因此，整合和重組進行中。
- OREX：創建 Rakuten Symphony 的複製
以上都是華為被排除的直接結果
- 在世界上大多數國家，禁止中國供應商的使命已經完成
- 國際合作正處於頂峰
- 這導致產生了區域/國家層面的一系列措施

開放式 vRAN：一般中立主機和室內用例的有力候選者，特別是作為 DAS 的替代品

世界各地的中立主機公司轉向 Open RAN 和 Open vRAN 作為其工具包中的新架構
目前基於 C-RAN 的DAS 架構為 Open vRAN 升級提供了許多機會
- 2026年，室內 Open vRAN/Open DAS 市場將超過室內 DAS
- 私人無線網路目前仍然是一個開放的vRAN 利基市場，但 90%的大型企業安裝都是傳統 RAN
- 但隨著 DAS 替代品轉移到較小的地點，Open vRAN 最終將滲透到中小企業領域
- 室內 5G 覆蓋：vRAN 的驅動力

簡介目錄

This report takes a deep dive into the virtualization and disaggregation of radio access networks and analyzes the various schools of thoughts ranging from basic virtualization of RAN functions (vRAN) to new open architectures such as open RAN, following the TIP initiative and the O-RAN Alliance specifications, designed to cut the dependency on proprietary RAN equipment supplied by the traditional vendors. The vRAN segment is taken from our existing RAN size and forecasts and broken down by 2G/3G/4G versus 5G, as well as by vCU/vDU and RU for each region, and also looks at the potential for indoor DAS replacement. The report covers a wide emerging ecosystem of vendors. Lastly, as more than 95% of open RAN deployments are vRAN, we call this market open vRAN.

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS: 1H24 DOWN YOY BUT THE FUTURE IS LOOKING UP!

THE OPEN RAN/VRAN MARKET WANED IN 1H24

1H24 WAS MARKED BY A WEAK COMMERCIAL DEPLOYMENT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BOARD
- Overall, 1H24 was a mixed bag of deployment pockets
- Little has changed in the vendor leadership board, just musical chairs in the top 4
- NEC and Samsung are the top RU suppliers while Fujitsu and Rakuten Symphony lead CU/DU
TRIALS, TESTING AND CERTIFICATION EFFORTS KEPT SWELLING, AND RFP/RFI SURGED
- Initially in the driver's seat, Orange, Telefonica and TIM have adopted a wait and see attitude

THE MARKET LULL EXTENDS FOR ANOTHER YEAR AND 2025 WILL BE THE TRIGGER YEAR, READY FOR TAKEOFF?

IN 2H24, WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT BUMP FROM THE AT&T ROLLOUT, WHICH HAS NOT CHANGED OUR FORECAST UPDATED 1Q24
2025 WILL BE THE GLOBAL SWITCH YEAR
- The open vRAN penetration of the global traditional RAN sales is expected to hit 29% in 2029, up from 4.6% in 2024
- So far, Asia Pacific is the world's largest open vRAN market but the U.S. is awakening in a big way
- Among the countries ploughing money into open RAN, the U.S. is pushing for gLobal dominance
- Consequently, North America is poised to hit the 20% RAN sales penetration bar in 2025 and reach 58% 2029
- Openness, scalability and innovation remain the 3 chief drivers
- We believe nearly all commercial open RAN networks will be running RAN functions on software
- vRAN and open RAN are 2 different configurations
- DISH and Rakuten Mobile bring cloud RAN to prime time
- Finally, it's worth noting that open RAN started as a NON-VIRTUAL architecture

WHILE THE OPEN VRAN RENAISSANCE BEGINS, THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE ECOSYSTEM IS UNDER PRESSURE

AS SOME OLD CHALLENGES REMAIN, THE NAYSAYERS STICK TO THEIR GUNS
IN THE MEANTIME, A VAST OPEN RAN ECOSYSTEM KEEPS DEVELOPING, CONSOLIDATING, RESTRUCTURING, AND RECAPITALIZING
- The early greenfield open RAN adopters embraced the multi-vendor approach...
- ...which is now under attack by the brownfield adopters and actors of this renaissance
- In this post 5G peak era, Tier 1 CSPs are locked in with abundant 5G footprints from Ericsson and Nokia
- At this stage, large Tier 1 CSPs seem inclined to do what AT&T is doing and lean heavily on a single big supplier for their open vRAN deployments
- Consequently, consolidation and restructuring are chugging along
- OREX: the creation of a Rakuten Symphony clone
ALL OF THE ABOVE IS THE DIRECT CONSEQUENCE OF THE HUAWEI BAN
- For most of the world, the mission to ban the Chinese vendors is accomplished...
- ...And international cooperation is at its best
- This also drove the creation of a flurry of regional and national initiatives

OPEN VRAN IS A STRONG CANDIDATE FOR NEUTRAL HOST, INDOOR USE CASES IN GENERAL, AND AS A DAS REPLACEMENT IN PARTICULAR

NEUTRAL HOST COMPANIES ACROSS THE WORLD ARE LOOKING AT OPEN RAN AND OPEN VRAN AS A NEW ARCHITECTURE IN THEIR TOOL KIT
CURRENT C-RAN-BASED DAS ARCHITECTURES OFFER PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPEN VRAN UPGRADES
- In 2026, the indoor open vRAN/open DAS market will surpass indoor DAS
- Private wireless networks remain an open vRAN niche for now but 90% of large enterprise installations are traditional RAN
- However, as DAS replacement shifts to smaller venues, open vRAN will eventually penetrate the SME space at some point
- Indoor 5G coverage is the vRAN driving force

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