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商用車重型機械

市場調查報告書

商品編碼

1509763

2024 年世界輕型、中型和重型商用車展望

Global Light, Medium, and Heavy Commercial Vehicle Outlook, 2024

出版日期: 2024年05月31日 | 出版商:

Frost & Sullivan | 英文 95 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

價格

簡介目錄

中國的強勁銷售抵消了北美和歐洲卡車市場的下滑

2023 年，中國和歐洲的 LCV 和 M&HD 卡車銷售量出現強勁成長，主要是基數影響較低。其他新興市場也面臨艱難的一年，特別是印度和東協，輕型商用車銷量下降，拉丁美洲的 M&HD 卡車銷量在 2023 年大幅下降。在經歷了艱難的2022年之後，中國OEM在2023年重新崛起，提高了國內銷量，並擴大了在中國以外的足跡，特別是在拉丁美洲和東協市場，取代了老牌的歐洲和日本OEM。 2023年，中國OEM貢獻了全球卡車銷售的近三分之一，較上年同期大幅成長。

電動車技術在全球的普及可能會推動商用車產業跨車輛細分市場、重量級別和地區實現更高水準的模組化和平台化，以提供通用利益並降低成本。由於消費者興趣下降和原料價格上漲，近期電動車投資的削減可能會在中短期內為價格溢價較低、更容易被消費者接受的替代內燃機汽車提供動力。

預計2024年經濟成長將慢於2023年，高利率和通膨上升仍是上半年的挑戰。烏克蘭和中東的戰爭以及多個國家的全國選舉將增加明年的不確定性和不可預測性。由於產能過剩和過高的運價，北美和歐洲等已開發市場預計 2024 年卡車銷量將大幅下降。東協和拉丁美洲等新興市場預計將在 2023 年經歷低迷後，在強勁的宏觀環境下強勁反彈。

主要問題

影響全球卡車產業的趨勢？
2023年全球卡車產業規模、細分市場佔有率以及各地區主要OEM製造商？
預測2024年單位成長，各地區的驅動力為何？
各地區主要動力傳動系統技術的採用預測如何？
2023年頂級OEM製造商以及各地區未來的動力傳動系統策略？

2024 年十大趨勢
十大成長機會
世界 GDP 成長率 - 由於主要市場失去成長動力，從 2023 年的 3% 溫和放緩至 2024 年的 2.6%
通膨和利率 - 2024 年下半年，整體通膨持續下降，新興市場利率轉向較低
貨幣趨勢－2024年上半年美元將維持強勢，2024年第三季起新興市場貨幣將受到提振
石油市場－第一季OPEC+減產，非OPEC增產
勞動市場－失業率溫和上升以及對市場情緒的積極預期支持勞動儲蓄
關鍵礦產供應－需要經濟彈性來加強跨境和跨產業夥伴關係
北美 - 由於可自由支配支出下降和利率上升，經濟放緩
西歐－通膨阻力緩解，成長溫和復甦
中東—經濟市場多元化帶來的非石油成長抵消了全球石油市場放緩帶來的反彈
亞洲－新興市場推動成長動力，財政措施支持中國經濟復甦

成長動力：輕型商用車市場展望

市場展望
市場預測：按地區/類別
輕型商用車OEM銷售業績
動力傳動系統技術預測
主要OEMeLCV發布預測

成長動力：M&HD 卡車市場前景

市場預測
市場預測：按地區/類別
M&HD卡車OEM銷售記錄
動力傳動系統技術預測
主要OEMeM&HD卡車發布預測

成長動力：北美

後疫情市場
市場前景和頂級參與企業
市場容量和動力傳動系統總成部門
OEM動力傳動系統技術平台

成長動力：歐洲

後疫情市場
市場前景和頂級參與企業
市場容量和動力傳動系統總成部門
OEM動力傳動系統技術平台

成長動力：中國

後疫情時代市場
市場前景和頂級參與企業
市場容量和動力傳動系統總成部門
OEM動力傳動系統技術平台

成長動力：印度

後疫情時代市場
市場前景和頂級參與企業
市場容量和動力傳動系統總成部門
OEM動力傳動系統技術平台

成長動力：拉丁美洲

後疫情時代市場
市場前景和頂級參與企業
市場容量和動力傳動系統總成部門
OEM動力傳動系統技術平台

成長動力：東協

後疫情時代市場
市場前景和頂級參與企業
市場容量和動力傳動系統總成部門
OEM動力傳動系統技術平台

成長機會宇宙

成長機會1－電動車平台模組化
成長機會 2 - 替代 ICE 系統
成長機會3—全球供應鏈重組

最佳實踐認證

弗羅斯特雷達

下一步

簡介目錄

Product Code: PFI3-42

Strong Sales in China to Compensate for Decline in Truck Market in North America and Europe

Both China and Europe experienced significant growth in LCV and M&HD truck sales in 2023, mainly driven by a low base affect. Other emerging markets faced a challenging year, with India and ASEAN specifically contracting in LCV sales and with LATAM's M&HD truck sales declining substantially in 2023. After a difficult 2022, Chinese OEMs reemerged in 2023 with a boost in domestic sales and a growing footprint outside of China, especially in the LATAM and ASEAN markets, displacing incumbent European and Japanese OEMs. Chinese OEMs contributed to nearly one-third of global truck sales in 2023, a substantial increase from one-fourth of sales the previous year.

The growing proliferation of EV technology globally will drive the CV industry toward a higher level of modularity and platformization across vehicle segments, weight classes, and geographies, to offer common benefits and cut costs. Recent cutbacks in EV investments because of lower consumer interest and higher raw material prices can prove to be a boost to alternate ICE vehicles with lower price premiums that customers can more readily adopt in the short-to-medium term.

Economic growth in 2024 is expected to be slower than in 2023, with high interest rates and rising inflation continuing to be a challenge, certainly in the first half of the year. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, in addition to state elections in several countries, only add to the uncertainties and unpredictability of the year ahead. Advanced markets, such as North America and Europe, are expected to experience a significant decline in truck sales in 2024 because of excess capacity and an underwhelming freight situation. Emerging markets, such as ASEAN and LATAM, are expected to bounce back strongly on the back of stronger macros after a weak 2023.

Key Issues Addressed

Trends impacting the global truck industry?
The size of the global truck industry in 2023, the segment share, and leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in different regions?
Expected volume growth in 2024 and drivers in different regions?
Projected penetration of key powertrain technologies across different regions?
Top OEM performers in 2023 and their future powertrain strategy in different regions?

Transformation in Light, Medium, and Heavy Commercial Vehicles

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the LCV, MD, and HD Truck Industry

Growth Environment

Key Findings-A Recap of 2023
Key Findings-Top 5 Predictions for 2024
Notable Regulations and Mandates-A Snapshot
Major Trends in the LCV Market
LCV Market
Major Trends in the M&HD Truck Market
M&HD Truck Market

Ecosystem

Research Scope
Market Segmentation

2023 Global Economic Outlook

Top 10 Trends for 2024
Top 10 Growth Opportunities
Global GDP Growth-Mild Global Growth Slowdown from 3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 as Key Markets Lose Growth Momentum
Inflation and Interest Rates-Headline Inflation Continuing to Decline; H2 2024 Shifting toward Rate Cuts for Developed Markets
Currency Trajectory-Dollar to Remain Strong in H1 2024; EM Currencies to Get a Boost from Q3 2024 Onwards
Oil Markets-Q1 OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts; Non-OPEC Production to Rise
Labor Market-Moderate Unemployment Uptick; Positive Expectations over Market Sentiment to Support Labor Hoarding
Critical Minerals Supplies-Need for Economic Resiliency to Bolster Cross-border and Cross-industry Partnerships
North America-Economic Slowdown amid Discretionary Spending Pullback and Elevated Interest Rates
Western Europe-Moderate Growth Pickup as Inflation Headwinds Ease; Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers to Take Precedence
The Middle East-Non-oil Growth from Economic Diversification Limiting the Pullback from a Slowdown in Global Oil Markets
ASIA-EMs to Drive Growth Momentum; Fiscal Measures to Support Chinese Economic Recovery