市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1617165
2030 年重型商用車市場預測:按車輛類型、燃料類型、最終用戶和地區分類的全球分析Heavy Commercial Vehicles Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Vehicle Type (Trucks, Buses, Vans and Other Vehicle Types), Fuel Type, End User and By Geography |
根據Stratistics MRC的數據,2024年全球重型商用車市場規模為1,329.8億美元,預計到2030年將達到2,487.2億美元,預測期內複合年成長率為11.0%。
重型商用車 (HCV) 是主要設計用於運輸貨物、材料或乘客的機動車輛,車輛總重 (GVW) 通常大於 16 噸。這些車輛包括卡車、拖車、自卸車、巴士和其他大型運輸設備。這些車輛根據配置、燃料類型和應用進行分類,重點關注燃油效率、電力傳動系統和智慧車隊管理系統。
Kenworth 和康明斯表示,配備 X15N 引擎的卡車預計將於 2024 年中期進入批量生產,並於第三季初首次交付。
基礎建設發展
道路、橋樑和城市發展等基礎建設需要可靠且大容量的車輛。 HCV 在運輸水泥、鋼材和骨材等原料方面發揮重要作用。政府對智慧城市和農村互聯互通的投資進一步增加了對 HCV 的需求。基礎設施的改善將促進物流並促進車隊擴張。這些因素共同刺激了C型肝炎病毒的生產和銷售,推動市場成長。
嚴格的廢氣法規
製造商必須投資電動傳動系統和排氣系統等先進技術,以滿足環境標準。由於需要額外的測試和開發,這些法規也導致產品發布的延遲。車隊營運商在改裝舊車輛以滿足新標準時面臨財務負擔。此外,法規因地區而異,為全球貿易和市場擴張帶來挑戰。此外,由於違規行為的處罰限制了中小型製造商的進入,市場成長進一步受到限制。
電動和替代燃料汽車
電動和替代燃料汽車減少了對石化燃料的依賴,並降低了車隊營運商的營運成本。世界各國政府正透過補貼和稅收優惠獎勵採用。電池技術和氫燃料電池的進步正在提高性能和續航里程,使其更加實用。工業永續性意識的增強正在推動對環保 HCV 的需求。此外,領先的製造商正在大力投資研發,以擴大其電動和替代燃料汽車產品組合,加速市場成長。
與鐵路和海運的競爭
與鐵路和海運的競爭將減少重型貨物運輸對 HCV 的依賴,因為它們提供更高的燃油效率,並能夠以更低的成本運輸更大的貨物量。海上運輸對於國際貿易至關重要,可以避免跨境物流中對 HCV 的需求。這兩種運輸方式對環境的影響都很小,並且符合全球永續性目標。鐵路和港口基礎設施的投資使道路運輸更具吸引力。這種競爭力限制了 HCV 的成長潛力,特別是在擁有強大鐵路和海運網路的地區。
COVID-19 的影響
COVID-19 大流行嚴重擾亂了重型商用車 (HCV) 市場,由於全球工業停工、供應鏈中斷和貨運減少,導致需求急劇下降。製造工廠面臨關閉,基礎設施計劃的延誤影響了銷售。然而,隨著電子商務和必需品運輸增加了對卡車的需求,市場開始復甦。政府獎勵策略和基礎設施計劃投資進一步推動了該行業的發展。此次疫情也加速了電動和連網型商用車的發展趨勢,以提高未來的彈性。
預計卡車行業在預測期內將是最大的。
由於整個行業對貨物運輸的需求不斷增加,卡車在物流和供應鏈業務中發揮重要作用,預計卡車行業將出現良好的成長。電子商務的擴張進一步推動了對送貨卡車的需求,並增加了市場需求。燃油效率、電動動力傳動系統和自動駕駛技術的進步使卡車對車隊營運商更具吸引力。此外,政府對基礎設施發展的投資正在為卡車的採用創造更有利的環境。都市化和建設活動的增加也促進了重型卡車的需求。
預計農業領域在預測期內複合年成長率最高
透過推動對能夠處理大量農產品的運輸車輛的需求,預計農業領域在預測期內將以最高的複合年成長率成長。 HCV 對於將穀物、蔬菜和牲畜從農場運送到市場和加工廠至關重要。此外,隨著農業變得更加機械化,需要更大的車輛來運輸大型機械和設備。農業的季節性需求波動也推動了對靈活可靠的商用車輛的需求。
由於快速的都市化、基礎設施發展和工業擴張,預計亞太地區在預測期內將佔據最大的市場佔有率。由於物流、建築和農業活動的增加,中國、印度和日本等國家正在推動需求。該地區電子商務行業的崛起進一步增加了對高效運輸的需求。此外,政府對道路網路和車輛現代化的投資正在推動市場。在中國等國家,轉向使用電力和替代燃料的 HCV 也有助於市場擴張,為發展中經濟體提供環保的交通解決方案。
由於物流、建築和電子商務領域的擴張,預計北美在預測期內將呈現最高的複合年成長率。該地區發達的基礎設施和不斷成長的貨運需求是HCV採用率增加的主要因素。技術進步,包括電動車和自動駕駛汽車技術的整合,正在塑造市場的未來。美國和加拿大是HCV的主要生產國,擁有強大的製造能力並有強大的售後服務市場支撐。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Heavy Commercial Vehicles Market is accounted for $132.98 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $248.72 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 11.0% during the forecast period. Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs) are motor vehicles designed primarily for transporting goods, materials, or passengers and typically have a gross vehicle weight (GVW) exceeding 16 tons. These vehicles include trucks, trailers, tippers, buses, and other heavy-duty transport equipment. They are categorized based on configurations, fuel types, and applications, with advancements focusing on fuel efficiency, electric drivetrains, and intelligent fleet management systems.
According to Kenworth and Cummins, trucks with the X15N engine were planned to enter serial production by mid-2024, with first deliveries in early Q3.
Infrastructure development
Infrastructure development like roads, bridges, and urban development require reliable and high-capacity vehicles. HCVs play a crucial role in moving raw materials such as cement, steel, and aggregates. Governments' investments in smart cities and rural connectivity further boost the need for HCVs. Improved infrastructure facilitates smoother logistics, encouraging fleet expansion. These factors collectively stimulate HCV production and sales, thus fostering the growth of the market.
Stringent emission norms
Manufacturers must invest in advanced technologies such as electric drivetrains and exhaust systems to meet environmental standards, which raises vehicle prices and makes them less affordable for cost-conscious buyers. These regulations also lead to delays in product launches, as additional testing and development are required. Fleet operators face financial strain when retrofitting older vehicles to comply with new norms. Moreover, varying regulations across regions create challenges for global trade and market expansion, while non-compliance penalties limit participation for smaller manufacturers, further restricting market growth.
Electric and alternative fuel vehicles
Electric and alternative fuel vehicles reduce dependency on fossil fuels, lowering operational costs for fleet operators. Governments worldwide are incentivizing adoption through subsidies and tax benefits. Advances in battery technology and hydrogen fuel cells improve performance and range, making them more viable. Growing awareness of sustainability among industries boosts demand for eco-friendly HCVs. Additionally, major manufacturers are investing heavily in R&D to expand their electric and alternative fuel vehicle portfolios, thereby booming the market growth.
Competition from rail and sea transport
Competition from rail and sea transport provides higher fuel efficiency and can carry larger volumes at lower costs, reducing reliance on HCVs for heavy goods movement. Sea transport is crucial for international trade, bypassing the need for HCVs in cross-border logistics. Both modes have lower environmental impacts, aligning with global sustainability goals. Investments in rail and port infrastructure further enhance their appeal over road transport. This competitive edge limits the growth potential of HCVs, especially in regions with robust rail and maritime networks.
Covid-19 Impact
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted the Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCV) market, causing a sharp decline in demand due to halted industrial activities, supply chain disruptions, and reduced freight movement globally. Manufacturing facilities faced closures, while delayed infrastructure projects affected sales. However, the market saw recovery as e-commerce and essential goods transportation increased demand for trucks. Governments' stimulus packages and investments in infrastructure projects further boosted the sector. The pandemic also accelerated trends toward electric and connected commercial vehicles for future resilience.
The trucks segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The trucks segment is estimated to have a lucrative growth, due to increased demand for goods transportation across industries, trucks play a vital role in logistics and supply chain operations. E-commerce expansion has further boosted the need for delivery trucks, enhancing the market's demand. Advancements in fuel efficiency, electric power trains, and autonomous driving technologies are making trucks more appealing to fleet operators. Additionally, government investments in infrastructure development are creating a more favourable environment for truck adoption. Rising urbanization and construction activities are also contributing to the demand for heavy-duty trucks.
The agriculture segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The agriculture segment is anticipated to witness the highest CAGR growth during the forecast period, by driving demand for transport vehicles that can handle bulk produce. HCVs are crucial for transporting grains, vegetables, and livestock from farms to markets and processing plants. Additionally, the growth of agricultural mechanization requires heavy-duty vehicles to transport large machinery and equipment. Seasonal demand fluctuations in farming also boost the need for flexible and reliable commercial vehicles.
Asia Pacific is projected to hold the largest market share during the forecast period by rapid urbanization, infrastructure development, and industrial expansion. Countries like China, India, and Japan are leading the demand due to increased logistics, construction, and agriculture activities. The region's rising e-commerce sector further boosts the need for efficient transportation. Additionally, government investments in road networks and initiatives to modernize fleets are driving the market. The shift towards electric and alternative fuel HCVs in countries like China is also contributing to the market's expansion, offering eco-friendly transportation solutions for the growing economy.
North America is projected to have the highest CAGR over the forecast period, owing to the expanding logistics, construction, and e-commerce sectors. The region's well-developed infrastructure and increasing demand for freight transportation are key contributors to the rise in HCV adoption. Technological advancements, including the integration of electric and autonomous vehicle technologies, are shaping the market's future. The U.S. and Canada, with their strong manufacturing capabilities, are leading producers of HCVs, supported by a strong aftermarket services market.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players profiled in the Heavy Commercial Vehicles Market include Daimler Truck AG, Volvo Group, Tata Motors Limited, Scania AB, PACCAR Inc., MAN Truck & Bus SE, Hino Motors, Ltd., Navistar International Corporation, Ashok Leyland, Isuzu Motors Limited, CNH Industrial N.V. (Iveco), BYD Auto Co., Ltd., Hyundai Motor Company, Ford Trucks (Ford Otosan) and Mack Trucks, Inc.
In October 2024, Daimler Truck AG and Volvo Group signed a binding agreement to form a joint venture focused on developing a software-defined vehicle platform for heavy-duty vehicles. This venture aims to set an industry standard for truck operating systems.
In October 2024, Tata Motors Finance entered into a strategic co-sourcing agreement with Bank of India aimed at improving financing accessibility for commercial vehicle owners and fleet operators across India. This partnership seeks to enhance customer experience by leveraging both entities' strengths.
In April 2023, Tata Motors strengthened its 30-year alliance with Cummins Inc. by signing a definitive agreement to manufacture low- to zero-emissions technology products in India. This partnership includes the establishment of TCPL Green Energy Solutions Private Limited to develop sustainable technology products.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.