透過經濟、地緣政治和商業風險和轉型實現繁榮

策略多元化、數位轉型和情境規劃是增強韌性和降低風險的關鍵

公司越來越需要規劃與快速變化的宏觀經濟動態和風險狀況相關的業務場景。保持領先地位需要廣泛的情境規劃和對不斷變化的風險狀況的敏捷反應，包括經濟、地緣政治、技術、氣候變遷以及勞動力和人力資本風險。

此思想領袖分析評估了 2024-2025 年執行長及其領導團隊面臨的首要風險，其中經濟和地緣政治風險在風險格局中占主導地位。在經濟風險方面，跨國地緣政治衝突可能加劇通膨壓力，並導致央行降息計畫脫軌。貿易方面，美國提高了對中國的關稅。中美貿易戰升級的風險可能會擾亂貿易流動並增加最終消費者的成本。如果主要半導體生產商台灣或韓國捲入地緣政治衝突，全球供應鏈和半導體生產可能會面臨壓力。在技​​術方面，生成式人工智慧已成為實現效率和產出最大化的強大技術。公司還需要保護自己免受與生成人工智慧相關的違規行為的影響。

該分析根據以下參數對 23 種全球風險進行定性和定量評估：對全球經濟的影響、可能性和影響時間線，從而產生全球風險領域的風險評分。此分析的結果被編譯成全球風險熱圖，使公司能夠立即識別其產品線和市場的高風險。分析也概述了2024年至2025年全球前五名風險的事前風險緩解和事後風險應對措施。有效應對這些風險和轉型的公司將在顛覆時期獲得競爭優勢。

目錄

策略要務

• 為什麼成長如此困難？
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• 關鍵策略要務措施對全球商業環境的影響
• 成長機會推動Growth Pipeline Engine（TM）

成長機會分析

• 生長促進和抑制因子

2024-2025年風險展望

• 通用風險圖
• 經濟風險促進因素
• 地緣政治風險—促進因素
• 技術、勞動力和人力資本風險 - 促進因素
• 環境/氣候變遷風險 - 促進因素
• 風險影響、可能性和時間表摘要
• 風險評分
• 風險排名及評分摘要

全球 5 大風險 - 影響與風險應對力

• 通膨衝擊的反覆出現－影響和風險應對力
• 貿易和供應鏈中斷的反覆發生—影響和風險應對力
• 以色列與哈馬斯戰爭升級為中東戰爭—影響與風險應對力
• 中美貿易戰愈演愈烈－影響及應對力
• 全球經濟衰退 - 影響與風險應對力

成長機會宇宙

• 成長機會 1：生產與供應鏈多元化，開拓新市場
• 成長機會2：技術轉型
• 成長機會三：產品系列多元化與策略重組
• 免責聲明

Strategic Diversification, Digital Transformation, and Scenario Planning are Key to Resilience Building and Risk Mitigation

Companies need to increasingly plan for business scenarios tied to fast-changing macroeconomic dynamics and risk conditions. Staying ahead of the curve requires extensive scenario planning and nimble responses to evolving risk conditions, such as economic, geopolitical, technological, climate change, and labor and human capital risks.

This thought leadership analysis evaluates the top risks CEOs and their leadership teams should prepare for in 2024-25, with economic and geopolitical risks dominating the risk landscape. In terms of economic risks, further cross-border geopolitical flare-ups could fuel inflationary pressures, derailing central bank interest rate cut plans. On the trade front, the United States has raised tariffs against China. The looming risk of an intensifying US-China trade war could disrupt trade flows and drive up costs for end consumers. Global supply chains and semiconductor production could come under pressure in case of geopolitical conflicts involving Taiwan or South Korea, major semiconductor producers. On the technological front, generative AI has become a go-to technology for efficiency and output maximization. Companies also need to secure themselves against generative AI-linked breaches.

The analysis qualitatively and quantitatively evaluates 23 global risks based on the parameters of global economic impact, likelihood, and impact timelines, with risk scores generated for the global risk universe. The findings of this exercise have been encapsulated in a global risk heatmap, enabling companies to immediately identify high risks to product lines and markets. The analysis also outlines pre-risk mitigation and post-risk responsiveness measures for the top 5 global risks from 2024-25. Companies that effectively plan for these risks and transformations are poised to gain a competitive edge during disruptive times.

Key Issues Addressed

• What is the risk universe for 2024-25 and what are the factors driving these risks?
• Which are the top 5 risks businesses need to prepare for to thrive?
• How does the economic impact of delayed rate cuts compare to a US-China trade war escalation?
• What is the risk score of a potential China invasion of Taiwan against that of a global recession?
• Does the risk score of technological risks outperform that of climate change risks?
• How should businesses navigate emerging global risks?
• What risk mitigation strategies should businesses deploy to counter economic risks?
• What growth opportunities should businesses capitalize on as the risk landscape evolves?

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Global Business Environment
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Growth Drivers and Restraints

2024-2025 Risks Outlook

• Universal Risk Mapping
• Economic Risks-Driving Factors
• Geopolitical Risks-Driving Factors
• Technological and Labor and Human Capital Risks-Driving Factors
• Environmental and Climate Change Risks-Driving Factors
• Risk Impact, Probability, and Timeline Summary
• Risk Scoring
• Risk Ranking and Score Summary

Top 5 Global Risks- Impact and Risk Responsiveness

• Recurring Inflationary Shocks-Impact and Risk Responsiveness
• Recurring Trade and Supply Chain Disruptions-Impact and Risk Responsiveness
• Israel-Hamas War Escalation into a Middle East War-Impact and Risk Responsiveness
• US-China Trade War Intensification-Impact and Risk Responsiveness
• Global Recession-Impact and Risk Responsiveness

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Production and Supply Chain Diversification to Newer Go-to Markets
• Growth Opportunity 2: Technological Transformation
• Growth Opportunity 3: Product Portfolio Diversification and Restrategizing
• Legal Disclaimer