歐洲輕型商用車市場：銷售預測與成長機會，2024-2032年

強而有力的脫碳措施將推動電動車變革性成長，到2032年滲透率將達到60%

Frost & Sullivan 預測，到2032年，整個輕型商用車（LCV）市場將達到 240萬輛。歐洲輕型商用車市場預計2023年至2032年年複合成長率為2.9%。在此期間，電動車（EV）的滲透率將達到60.0%，高於2023年的6.9%。

2023年歐洲LCV市場總規模為190萬輛。貨車數量最多，達 170萬輛，佔所有輕型商用車的92.4%。 3.5噸以下細分市場佔總量的99.1%，3.5噸以上細分市場佔剩餘佔有率。

在歐洲銷售的輕型商用車中有三分之一來自 Stellantis 集團。福特則位居第二，佔有率為 18.0%，緊隨其後的是雷諾-日產集團，佔有率為 15.0%。德國大眾和賓士佔據前五名，總合市場佔有率21.5%。

柴油引擎是輕型商用車的主要動力傳動系統技術，佔86.0%。在3.5噸以下的細分市場中，柴油佔86.1%，而在3.5噸以上的重型等級中，柴油的佔比甚至更低，為75.0%。

歐洲皮卡主要用於個人使用。同時，32.9%的貨車用於小包裹和送貨。公共工程、旅遊服務和建築應用佔貨車銷量的37.0%，而個人和搭乘用用途合計佔比為 30.2%。

該歐洲輕型商用車研究服務的研究期間為2023年至2032年。

主要問題

• 2023年歐洲輕型商用車市場規模有多大？市場未來的成長前景如何？
• 輕型商用車領域的主要OEM和主要應用有哪些？
• 這個市場的主要企業化前景如何？
• eLCV 的總擁有成本與 ICE LCV 相比如何？
• 未來電動輕型商用車市場規模預計會發生什麼樣的變化？推動市場成長的因素有哪些？

研究亮點

歐洲 LCV 市場：2023-2032年銷售量與 eEV 滲透率預測

調查範圍

調查範圍

調查目標區域

歐洲

調查期間

2023-2032

基準年

2023年

預測期

2024-2032

市場區隔

皮卡車、貨車、平頂式（COE）卡車

輕型商用車市場細分

整車總重小於6噸的輕型商用車：

• 緊湊型、中型、全尺寸、重型（HD）皮卡
• 廂型車 小型、中型、大型
• 駕駛室引擎（COE）卡車：微型、小型、輕型

動力傳動系統類型

• 汽油
• 柴油引擎
• 天然氣
• 電動車（本次調查中同時表示為 EV 和 xEV）

影響歐洲輕型商用車市場的三大關鍵策略挑戰

產業融合

為什麼？

• 汽車原始設備製造商（OEM）、層級供應商和技術公司之間的合作有可能解決排放氣體、安全和連接方面的通用挑戰。
• 協同效應使相關人員能夠快速開發創新解決方案、降低成本和風險。

Frost的觀點

• 汽車製造商和科技公司之間的夥伴關係已經開始，並且在未來可能會變得更加普遍。
• 來自不同學科和專業知識的思想的融合預計將改變未來十年。

內部問題

為什麼？

• 卡車運輸業一直由思想陳舊、抵制變革的傳統公司主導，但近年來，精通科技的新興企業對此產生了興趣。
• 這些年輕的公司利用先進技術和人工智慧（AI）來改寫遊戲規則。

Frost的視角

• 在未來兩到五年內，預計會看到許多新參與企業，特別是在電氣化市場。
• 許多科技公司都想在貨運市場中分一杯羹，致力於互聯、貨運經紀和自動駕駛。

變革性大趨勢

為什麼？

• Frost & Sullivan 的《交通變革大趨勢》研究了自動駕駛交通、綠色交通和新的交通模式將如何塑造未來。
• 連網型、自主、共用和電氣化（CASE）是卡車運輸業的關鍵字。
• 每一個都可能為創造一個更乾淨、更安全和更永續的環境做出貢獻。

Frost的觀點

• 遠端資訊處理和數位貨運經紀形式的連網型和共享技術尚處於起步階段，但已經開始推廣。
• Frost & Sullivan 預測電動卡車將在未來十年變得更加流行。
• 根據等級的不同，自動駕駛還需要 5 到 10年的時間。

目錄

成長環境－歐洲輕型商用車產業的轉型

• 為什麼成長越來越困難？
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• 三大策略對輕型商用車（LCV）產業的影響

成長環境

• 主要發現
• 輕型商用車銷售及使用佔有率
• LCV動力傳動系統總成分體
• 銷量預測和電動車滲透率

生態系統

• 調查範圍
• 輕型商用車市場細分

輕型商用車市場前景

• 歐洲 - 區域展望
• 輕型商用車數量
• LCV動力傳動系統總成分體
• 輕型商用車OEM市場佔有率
• 輕型商用車主要應用
• 主要輕型商用車應用佔有率

主要國家見解

• 國家洞察 - 德國
• 國家洞察 - 法國
• 國家洞察 - 義大利
• 國家洞察 - 西班牙
• 國家洞察 -英國

輕型商用車電動化

• 電氣化使用案例-皮卡
• 電氣化使用案例- 貨車
• eLCV技術藍圖
• 傳動系統架構映射 - OEM
• eLCV 車型（依車輛尺寸）
• 主要OEM的電動平台
• 電動皮卡關鍵指標
• 電動貨車行駛里程範圍
• 電動搬運車價格分佈
• 車輛數量和電動車普及率預測
• 小型電動搬運車-電池容量和馬達功率
• 中型電動搬運車-電池容量和馬達功率
• 大型電動貨車－電池容量和馬達功率
• 主要電動輕型商用車推出
• 電動車獎勵- 特定國家

單位數量預測

• 依部門分類的銷售預測
• 動力傳動系統市場佔有率預測
• 電動動力傳動系統總成佔有率預測
• 皮卡保有量和電動車普及率預測
• 貨車保有量和電動車普及率預測
• COE 卡車銷售預測和電動車滲透率
• 輕型商用車（LCV）未來車身風格展望

總擁有成本分析

• TCO 分析 - 關鍵假設
• 大型貨車 - TCO 佔有率和每英里成本
• 大型貨車-收貨期
• 大型貨車 - TCO 組件
• 小型貨車 - TCO 佔有率和每英里價格
• 小型貨車-投資回收期
• 小型貨車 - TCO 組件

輕型商用車領域的成長機會領域

• 成長機會 1 - 充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟經濟狀況
• 成長機會 2 – 皮卡銷量的成長可抵消平頂式卡車（COE）的下降
• 成長機會 3 – 不斷發展的電動車（EV）生態系統

最佳實踐評估

FROST RADAR

下一步

• 成長機會的好處和影響
• 下一步
• 圖表列表
• 免責聲明

Strong Decarbonization Measures are Driving Transformational Growth in Electric Vehicles toward Penetration of 60% by 2032

Frost & Sullivan expects the overall light commercial vehicle (LCV) market size to reach 2.4 million units by 2032. The European LCV market is on track to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% between 2023 and 2032. Electric vehicle (EV) penetration will increase to reach 60.0% during this period, up from 6.9% in 2023.

The overall size of the LCV market in Europe in 2023 was 1.9 million units. Vans held the largest volume at 1.7 million units and contributed 92.4% of the total LCV volumes. The less than 3.5t segment held 99.1% of the overall volume, and the greater than 3.5t segment made up the remaining share.

One out of every 3 LCVs sold in Europe belongs to the Stellantis Group. Next comes Ford at a distant second, with a market share of 18.0%, followed closely by Renault-Nissan Group at 15.0%. German manufacturers Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz with a combined share of 21.5% complete the top five players.

Diesel is the primary powertrain technology for LCVs, powering 86.0% of them. Diesel powers 86.1% of the vehicles in the less than 3.5t segment, and even less in the higher-weight class of the greater than 3.5t segment, with a 75.0% share, due to the significant presence of EVs.

Pickups in Europe are almost entirely used for personal applications. Meanwhile, 32.9% of vans are used for parcel and delivery applications. Utilities, mobile services, and construction applications make up 37.0% of van sales, with personal and passenger applications holding a combined share of 30.2%.

The study period for this European LCV research service is 2023 to 2032.

Key Issues Addressed

• What is the size of the Europe LCV market in 2023? What are the market's future growth prospects?
• Who are the key OEMs, and what are the major applications in the LCV segment?
• What are the prospects for electrification in the market, and who are the key players driving it?
• How does the total cost of ownership for eLCVs compare with that of ICE LCV?
• What is the volume of the eLCV market expected to be in the future? What are the drivers for the growth of this market? 

 

Research Highlights

LCV Market: Volume and xEV Penetration Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032

 

Research Scope

Scope

Geographic Coverage

Europe

Study Period

2023-2032

Base Year

2023

Forecast Period

2024-2032

Market Segments

Pickups, Vans, Cab-Over-Engine (COE) Trucks

 

LCV Market Segmentation

GVWR < 6 tons LCV: 

• Pickups: Compact, Mid-size, Full-size, and Heavy-Duty (HD)
• Vans: Small, Medium, and Large
• Cab-over-engine (COE) Trucks: Mini, Small, and Light

Powertrain Types:

• Gasoline
• Diesel
• Natural Gas
• Electric Vehicle (represented as both EV and xEV in this study)

 

Top 3 Strategic Imperatives impacting the European LCV Market

Industry Convergence

Why:

• Collaborations among automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), Tier I suppliers, and tech companies will likely address common challenges in emissions, safety, and connectivity.
• Synergies will allow stakeholders to develop innovative solutions faster, cut costs, and mitigate risks.

Frost Perspective:

• Partnerships between automotive and tech companies are already happening and will become more common.
• The confluence of ideas from diverse area and expertise is expected to transform the next decade.

Internal Challenges

Why:

• The trucking industry, dominated by legacy companies with old ideas and resistance to change, has attracted interest from tech-savvy start-ups in recent years.
• These young companies are rewriting the rules of the game through high-level technology and artificial intelligence (AI).

Frost Perspective:

• The following 2 to 5 years will see many new participants entering the market, especially in electrification.
• Numerous technology companies want a piece of the trucking pie and are working on connectivity, freight brokerage, and autonomous driving.

Transformative Megatrends

Why:

• Frost & Sullivan’s Mobility Revolution Megatrend considers how autonomous mobility, green transportation, and new mobility models will shape the future.
• In the trucking industry, the keywords are connected, autonomous, shared, and electric (CASE).
• Each will contribute to a cleaner, safer, and more sustainable environment.

Frost Perspective:

• Connected and shared technologies in the form of telematics and digital freight brokerage are in the nascent stage but already in deployment.
• Frost & Sullivan expects a proliferation of electric trucks in this decade.
• Depending on the level, autonomous driving is still 5 to 10 years away.

 

Table of Contents

Growth Environment-Transformation in European Light Commercial Vehicle Sector

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Industry

Growth Environment

• Key Findings
• LCV Sales Volume and Application Share
• LCV Powertrain Split
• Volume Forecast and EV Penetration

Ecosystem

• Research Scope
• LCV Market Segmentation

LCV Market Outlook

• Europe-Regional Outlook
• LCV Volumes
• LCV Powertrain Split
• LCV OEM Market Share
• Major LCV Applications
• Key LCV Applications Share

Key Country Insight

• Country Insight-Germany
• Country Insight-France
• Country Insight-Italy
• Country Insight-Spain
• Country Insight-United Kingdom

LCV Electrification

• Electrification Use Cases-Pickups
• Electrification Use Cases-Vans
• eLCV Technology Roadmap
• Drivetrain Architecture Mapping-OEMs
• eLCV Models by Vehicle Size
• Electric Platforms of Key OEMs
• Key Metrics for Electric Pickups
• Mileage Range of Electric Vans
• Price Range of Electric Vans
• Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
• Small Electric Vans-Battery Capacity and Motor Power
• Medium Electric Vans-Battery Capacity and Motor Power
• Large Electric Vans-Battery Capacity and Motor Power
• Key eLCV Launches
• EV Incentives-Select Countries

Volumes Forecast

• Volume Forecast by Segment
• Powertrain Share Forecast
• Electric Powertrain Share Forecast
• Pickup Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
• Van Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
• COE Truck Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
• LCV Future Outlook by Body Style

TCO Analysis

• TCO Analysis-Key Assumptions
• Large Vans-TCO Share and per Mile Cost
• Large Vans-Payback Period
• Large Vans-TCO Components
• Small Vans-TCO Share and per Mile Cost
• Small Vans-Payback Period
• Small Vans-TCO Components

Growth Opportunity Universe in Light Commercial Vehicle Sector

• Growth Opportunity 1-Challenging Macro-economic Conditions
• Growth Opportunity 2-Pickups to Compensate for Decline in Cab-over-Engine (COE) Trucks
• Growth Opportunity 3-Growing Electric Vehicle (EV) Ecosystem

Best Practices Recognition

• Best Practices Recognition

Frost Radar

• Frost Radar

Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer