全球客車市場成長機會，2024年

Global Bus Growth Opportunities, 2024

出版日期: 2024年09月19日 | 出版商:

Frost & Sullivan | 英文 69 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

價格

簡介目錄

歐洲、北美和印度零排放公車強勁成長

預計到2024年，全球客車產業保有量將達到 234,000 輛。印度銷售的復甦和歐洲的健康成長推動了強勁的成長。由於政府為更換老化車隊和替代動力傳動系統提供補貼，公車巴士的需求有所成長，而長途客車的成長則受到旅遊業蓬勃發展和 COVID-19 大流行後恢復正常的推動。

在電動巴士（eBus）方面，排放法規、電池價格下降、低排放氣體區的出現、購買補貼和免稅將推動成長，而電動運輸巴士的日益普及將帶來替代動力傳動系統巴士的世界這為採購和供應開啟了新的機會。該行業是現有汽車製造商、供應商和尋求進入該行業的新進入者之間強力合作的沃土。

歐盟清潔汽車指令等法規可能會鼓勵電動巴士的採用，特別是作為國家大眾交通工具採購的一部分。純電動公車從2024年到2027年將出現強勁成長，主要公用事業和能源公司進入充電基礎設施領域將推動電動車充電基礎設施的成長。

關於公車上的ADAS，從2024年 7月起銷售的所有車輛都都必須遵守General Vehicle Safety Regulation 2019/2144 。車輛所需的ADAS 功能包括行人和騎車人偵測、盲點監控、正面碰撞警告、自動緊急煞車、智慧速度輔助、車道偏離警告以及駕駛員困倦和分心警告。

在中國，由於補貼和購買獎勵的取消，純電動公車在中期可能會出現溫和成長。政府實施的農村客運、貨運、郵政一體化政策，將可緩解過剩的大眾交通工具運輸能力，建立便利高效的新型農村交通服務模式。政府已宣佈在 15個試點城市探索創建綠色低碳交通系統。2023年是中國全面放鬆疫情防治措施的第一年，中國長途客車成長強勁。此外，在製造和組裝工廠的建立以及出口增加的推動下，中國電動巴士OEM全球迅速擴張。

在印度，耗資 70億美元的PM-eBus Sewa 計畫將在 169個城市增加電動公車數量，並在 181個城市引進綠色城市交通舉措。這包括車站基礎設施的開發和升級以及電動公車用戶電錶後端電力基礎設施（變電站）的建設。

在拉丁美洲，ZEBRA（Zero-emission Bus Rapid-deployment Accelerator）計畫將加速電動公車的採用，最初將在麥德林、聖保羅和墨西哥城推出。拉丁美洲主要國家製定電動車策略，以在大眾交通工具中推廣零排放公車。 ZEV 公車的競標側重於基於性能的契約，製造商滿足強大的售後支援的要求，例如預防性保養和備件保固。

這項研究還涵蓋以下主題：

值得注意的法規和義務
區域產業趨勢及其影響
詳細涵蓋北美、歐洲、拉丁美洲、中國和印度
動力傳動系統技術的區域佔有率，包括電動車和天然氣汽車
來自不同OEM的動力傳動系統技術產品系列
成長機會

作者：賽迪普‧蘇達卡

The global bus industry is estimated to reach 2,34,000 units in 2024. The strong growth will be due to the bounce back in volumes in India and a healthy increase in Europe. Transit bus demand grew due to aging fleet replacement and government subsidies for alternate powertrains, while coach bus growth was driven by the thriving tourism industry and the return to normalcy after the COVID-19 pandemic.

On the electric bus (eBus) front, emission regulations, battery price drops, the emergence of low-emission zones, purchase subsidies, and tax exemptions will drive growth, while the growing adoption of electric transit buses has opened opportunities for the global sourcing and supply of alternate powertrain buses. The industry is fertile ground for strong collaboration among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new participants trying to enter.

Regulations such as the EU Clean Vehicle directive will boost eBus adoption, particularly as part of national public transport procurement. BEV buses will experience strong growth from 2024 to 2027, and the entry of major utility and energy companies into the electric charging infrastructure space will boost the growth of fueling infrastructure for EVs.

For bus ADAS, General Vehicle Safety Regulation 2019/2144 will be mandatory for all vehicles sold from July 2024. Required ADAS features for vehicles include pedestrian and cyclist detection, blind spot monitoring, front collision warning, autonomous emergency braking, intelligent speed assistance, lane departure warning, and driver drowsiness and distraction warning.

In China, BEV buses will see moderate growth in the medium term due to the elimination of subsidies and purchase incentives. The government policy for the integration of rural passenger, freight, and postal services will alleviate public transportation's overcapacity and establish a new rural transportation service model that emphasizes convenience and efficiency. The government has announced 15 pilot cities to explore the construction of a green and low-carbon transportation system. Chinese coach buses registered strong growth as 2023 was the 1st year when the country's pandemic control policies were completely relaxed. In addition, Chinese eBus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, driven by the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants and growing exports.

In India, the $7 billion PM-eBus Sewa scheme will augment eBuses in 169 cities and introduce green urban mobility initiatives in 181 cities. This includes the development and upgradation of depot infrastructure and the creation of behind-the-meter power infrastructure (substation) for eBuses.

In Latin America, the Zero-emission Bus Rapid-deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) program will drive eBus adoption, with initial kickstarts in Medellin, Sao Paulo, and Mexico City. Major Latin American countries are developing electromobility strategies to promote zero-emission buses in public transportation, while Chinese OEMs have established regional production bases to tap into the region. ZEV bus tenders focus on performance-based contracts where manufacturers meet requirements for strong post-sales support, including preventive maintenance and guaranteed spare parts.

The study also covers the following topics:

Notable regulations and mandates
Top industry trends and impact by region
In-depth coverage of North America, Europe, Latin America, China, and India
Powertrain technology share by region, including electric and natural gas vehicles
Different OEMs' powertrain technology product portfolios
Growth opportunities

Authored by: Saideep Sudhakar

Strategic Imperatives

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Bus Industry
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Scope and Segmentation

Research Scope
Segmentation

Growth Environment

Key Findings: A Recap of 2023
Key Findings: Top 5 Predictions for 2024
Transit Buses and Coaches Market
Market Forecast
Market Forecast by Region and Segment
2024 Bus Powertrain Technology Forecast
Notable Regulations and Mandates: A Snapshot

North America

Market Outlook: North America
Quarterly Bus Sales: North America
Market Volume and Powertrain Split: North America
Bus OEM Sales Performance: North America
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: North America

Europe

Market Outlook: Europe
Quarterly Bus Sales: Europe
Market Volume and Powertrain Split: Europe
Bus OEM Sales Performance: Europe
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

China

Market Outlook: China
Quarterly Bus Sales: China
Market Volume and Powertrain Split: China
Bus OEM Sales Performance: China
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

India

Market Outlook: India
Quarterly Bus Sales: India
Market Volume and Powertrain Split: India
Bus OEM Sales Performance: India
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Latin America

Market Outlook: Latin America
Quarterly Bus Sales: Latin America
Market Volume and Powertrain Split: Latin America
Bus OEM Sales Performance: Latin America
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Opportunity Universe

Growth Opportunity 1: Moving Toward Clean and Zero-emission Transportation
Growth Opportunity 2: Developing ADAS Features and Level 4 Autonomy
Growth Opportunity 3: Reducing TCO to Expedite the Adoption of Alternative Powertrains