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市場調查報告書
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1635506

南美石油天然氣下游：市場佔有率分析、產業趨勢、統計、成長趨勢預測（2025-2030）

South America Oil and Gas Downstream - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 110 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3個工作天內

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簡介目錄

預計南美油氣下游市場在預測期內將維持3.9%以上的複合年成長率。

南美石油天然氣下游市場-IMG1

2020 年，市場受到 COVID-19 大流行的負面影響。目前市場處於大流行前的水平。

主要亮點

  • 從中期來看，天然氣和精煉石油產品需求的增加預計將在預測期內提振南美石油和天然氣下游市場的需求。
  • 另一方面，生質乙醇和生物柴油等生質燃料的使用增加預計將對石油和天然氣下游行業的成長產生負面影響。
  • 精製和石化行業的數位化和現代化預計將降低精製成本和製程損失。預計這將在預測期內創造市場機會。
  • 預計巴西在預測期內將主導南美石油和天然氣下游市場。

南美洲油氣下游市場走勢

精製業實現大幅成長

  • 由於巴西、阿根廷和哥倫比亞等國提案的多個擴建計劃，預計南美精製業將在預測期內實現高速成長。根據 OPEC 2022 年年度統計公報，南美煉油廠產能從 2018 年的 6,618,000 桶/日 (kb/d) 增至 2021 年的 6,648 kb/d。
  • 在巴西，煉油廠運轉率大幅下降，從2008年至2016年的平均85%降至2017年至2019年的75%。由於即將開展的計劃和煉油業投資的增加，預計未來幾年運轉率將會上升。
  • 2021年1月，巴西Macro Desenvolvimento獲得石油、天然氣和生物燃料局（Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and 生質燃料）的許可，在甘迺迪總統市建設和營運價值4.8億美元的天然氣處理裝置（UPGN）我在聖埃斯皮里圖州申請了ANP）。預計 2023 年 12 月開始施工，並於 2025 年竣工。因此，政府向參與企業開放巴西下游產業的措施預計將在預測期內提振巴西下游產業對EPC服務的需求。
  • 此外，在阿根廷，YPF（阿根廷領先的石油和天然氣公司）持有Luján de Cuyo 煉油廠，名義產能為 114 mbbl/d。該煉油廠的乙基叔丁基醚工廠於 2021 年 8 月開始運作。該工廠是一家維修的前 MTBE 工廠，旨在最佳化乙醇與汽油的混合。 2021 年，Luján de Cuyo 煉油廠的加工也受到門多薩省盆地原油供應量減少的影響。
  • 哥倫比亞的下游石油和天然氣產業也顯示出發展跡象，特別是煉油業。例如，2022年9月，哥倫比亞國家石油公司Ecopetrol完成了其位於卡塔赫納的Reficar煉油廠的擴建，以滿足國內不斷成長的燃料需求。此次擴建加強了卡塔赫納煉油廠作為保障哥倫比亞能源主權的戰略資產的地位。該煉油廠還將生產硫含量分別低於 100 ppm 和 50 ppm 的柴油和汽油。這些發展可能對該地區的煉油業產生正面影響。
  • 因此，基於上述因素，預計煉油業在預測期內將在南美石油和下游天然氣市場出現顯著成長。

巴西主導市場

  • 截至2021年，巴西擁有17家煉油廠，其中國營石油天然氣公司Petrobras營運該國總煉油能力的98%。大多數煉油廠位於巴西海岸的需求中心附近。作為其戰略計劃（2021-2025）的一部分，巴西國家石油公司宣佈出售其 12 家現有煉油廠中的 8 家，併計劃到 2022 年出售中游和燃料分銷部門的剩餘股權。此舉由巴西礦業和能源部主導，旨在使該部能夠有效過渡到開放和競爭的下游產業。
  • 除了現有煉油廠外，預計私人公司也將在未來幾年進入巴西煉油廠市場。例如，2020年5月，美國石油集團宣布計畫斥資3億美元在巴西里約熱內盧阿庫港興建煉油廠，產能2萬桶/日。該工廠預計將於 2024 年投入運作，並可在未來幾年內擴大至 50,000 桶/日。該公司也考慮在巴西再建五家小型煉油廠。
  • 只有在國有企業開始銷售衍生性商品以符合國際價格後，私人企業才能進入市場。此前，低於市場價格銷售產品導致了巨大損失，並阻礙了市場參與企業進入市場。
  • 根據歐佩克年度統計快報（2022年），該國2021年煉油廠吞吐能力為178.5萬桶/日，比前一年（171.7萬桶）增加約4%。
  • 因此，由於上述因素，預計巴西在預測期內將主導南美洲地區的油氣下游領域。

南美洲油氣下游產業概況

南美下游油氣市場本質上是適度一體化的。市場主要企業包括（排名不分先後）Petrobras、YPF SA、Ecopetrol SA、殼牌 PLC 和 BP PLC。

其他好處

  • Excel 格式的市場預測 (ME) 表
  • 3 個月分析師支持

目錄

第1章簡介

  • 調查範圍
  • 市場定義
  • 研究場所

第 2 章執行摘要

第3章調查方法

第4章市場概況

  • 介紹
  • 至2027年精製能力及預測（單位：百萬桶/日）
  • 最新趨勢和發展
  • 政府法規和措施
  • 市場動態
    • 促進因素
    • 抑制因素
  • 供應鏈分析
  • 波特五力分析
    • 供應商的議價能力
    • 消費者議價能力
    • 新進入者的威脅
    • 替代品的威脅
    • 競爭公司之間的敵對關係

第5章市場區隔

  • 按行業分類
    • 煉油廠
      • 市場概況
      • 主要計劃資訊
    • 石化廠
      • 市場概況
      • 主要計劃資訊
  • 按地區
    • 巴西
    • 阿根廷
    • 哥倫比亞
    • 南美洲其他地區

第6章 競爭狀況

  • 併購、合資、聯盟、協議
  • 主要企業策略
  • 公司簡介
    • Petrobras
    • YPF SA
    • Ecopetrol SA
    • Shell PLC
    • BP PLC
    • Exxon Mobil Corporation

第7章 市場機會及未來趨勢

簡介目錄
Product Code: 92923

The South America Oil and Gas Downstream Market is expected to register a CAGR of greater than 3.9% during the forecast period.

South America Oil and Gas Downstream - Market - IMG1

The market was negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Presently, the market has reached pre-pandemic levels.

Key Highlights

  • Over the medium term, factors such as the increasing demand for natural gas and refined petroleum products are expected to boost the demand for the oil and gas downstream market in South America during the forecast period.
  • On the flip side, increased use of biofuels such as bioethanol and biodiesel is expected to negatively impact growth in the downstream oil and gas sector.
  • Nevertheless, the digitalization and modernization of the refining and petrochemical sector are expected to reduce refining costs and process losses. This, in turn, is expected to create an opportunity for the market during the forecast period.
  • During the forecast period, Brazil is expected to dominate South America's oil and gas downstream market.

South America Oil & Gas Downstream Market Trends

Refinery Sector to Witness Significant Growth

  • South America's refining sector is expected to register high growth during the forecast period, owing to the several expansion projects proposed by countries like Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, etc. According to OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2022, in South America, the capacity of refineries had increased from 6,618 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in 2018 to 6,648 kb/d in 2021.
  • The refinery utilization rate dropped sharply in Brazil, from an average of 85% in 2008-2016 to 75% in 2017-2019. This rate is expected to be increased in the coming years, owing to upcoming projects and increasing investments in the refinery sector.
  • In January 2021, Brazilian company Macro Desenvolvimento requested authorization from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) to build and operate a USD 480 million natural gas processing unit (UPGN) in Presidente Kennedy municipality, Espirito Santo. The construction work is planned to start in December 2023 and is expected to be completed by 2025. Therefore, the government's move to open the country's downstream sector to private players is expected to boost the demand for EPC services in the downstream segment in Brazil during the forecast period.
  • Moreover, In Argentina, the YPF (Argentina's major oil and gas company) has the Lujan de Cuyo refinery, which has a nominal capacity of 114 mbbl/d. In August 2021, this refinery started the operation of the ethyl tertiary-butyl ether plant. This plant is a revamp of a former plant of MTBE, and its goal is to optimize the blending of ethanol in motor gasoline. In 2021, the processing of the Lujan de Cuyo refinery was also affected by the lower availability of crude oil from the basins of the Mendoza Province.
  • Furthermore, Colombia is also showing signs of development in the country's downstream oil and gas sector, particularly in the refineries segment. For instance, in September 2022, Colombian state oil company Ecopetrol completed expansion works at its Reficar oil refinery in Cartagena as it seeks to meet rising domestic fuel demand. This expansion consolidates the Cartagena refinery as a strategic asset to guarantee Colombia's energy sovereignty. Also, this refinery would now produce diesel and gasoline with sulfur content levels below 100 parts per million (ppm) and 50 ppm, respectively. Such developments are likely to create a positive impact on the refinery sector in the region.
  • Therefore, based on the above factors, the refinery sector is expected to witness significant growth in South America's oil and downstream gas market during the forecast period.

Brazil to Dominate the Market

  • As of 2021, Brazil has 17 refineries, of which 98% of the country's total refining capacity is operated by the state-owned oil and gas company Petrobras. Most of the refineries are located near demand centers on the country's coast. As part of its Strategic Plan (2021-2025), Petrobras announced the divestment of eight of its 12 existing refineries and plans to sell its remaining stakes in the midstream and fuels distribution sectors by 2022. This move, initiated by Brazil's Mines and Energy Ministry, is aimed at facilitating the sector's ability to achieve an effective transition to an open and competitive downstream sector.
  • In addition to the existing refineries, private firms are planning to enter Brazil's refining market in the coming years. For instance, in May 2020, the US-based firm Oil Group announced its plans to build a USD 300 million refinery with a capacity to deliver 20,000 b/d of oil derivatives in Brazil's Acu port, Rio de Janeiro. The plant is expected to come online by 2024, with the possibility of being expanded to 50,000 b/d in the coming years. The company is also studying the implementation of five more small refineries in Brazil.
  • The entrance of private players in the market only became possible after the state firm started following international prices for derivatives sales. Before that, the sale of products below market prices generated big losses for the firm and prevented competitors from participating.
  • According to the OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2022, the country's refinery throughput totaled 1,785 thousand barrels per day in 2021, i.e., an increase of about 4% when compared to the previous year's value (1,717 thousand barrels per day).
  • Therefore, based on the above-mentioned factors, Brazil is expected to dominate the oil and gas downstream sector in the South American region during the forecast period.

South America Oil & Gas Downstream Industry Overview

The South American oil and gas downstream market is moderately consolidated in nature. Some of the major players in the market (in no particular order) include Petrobras, YPF SA, Ecopetrol SA, Shell PLC, and BP PLC.

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Scope of the Study
  • 1.2 Market Definition
  • 1.3 Study Assumptions

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

4 MARKET OVERVIEW

  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Refining Capacity and Forecast in million barrels per day, till 2027
  • 4.3 Recent Trends and Developments
  • 4.4 Government Policies and Regulations
  • 4.5 Market Dynamics
    • 4.5.1 Drivers
    • 4.5.2 Restraints
  • 4.6 Supply Chain Analysis
  • 4.7 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
    • 4.7.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
    • 4.7.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes Products and Services
    • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SEGMENTATION

  • 5.1 By Sector
    • 5.1.1 Refineries
      • 5.1.1.1 Market Overview
      • 5.1.1.2 Key Project Information
    • 5.1.2 Petrochemical Plants
      • 5.1.2.1 Market Overview
      • 5.1.2.2 Key Project Information
  • 5.2 By Geography
    • 5.2.1 Brazil
    • 5.2.2 Argentina
    • 5.2.3 Colombia
    • 5.2.4 Rest of South America

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 6.1 Mergers and Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations, and Agreements
  • 6.2 Strategies Adopted by Leading Players
  • 6.3 Company Profiles
    • 6.3.1 Petrobras
    • 6.3.2 YPF SA
    • 6.3.3 Ecopetrol SA
    • 6.3.4 Shell PLC
    • 6.3.5 BP PLC
    • 6.3.6 Exxon Mobil Corporation

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS