通訊業者的5G代價 - 2022年債務增加，較低利潤:COVID以後，投資劇增，部分通訊業者陷入困境- 隨著利率上升和新收入未能出現，需要管理債務增加

2022年第四季的通訊業者的負債總額為1兆1,400億美金，17％明年還款到期。銷售額中軟體設備投資佔的比例，2022年成為1.9％，從2021年的1.8％稍微上升。收購的支出2022年成為銷售額的0.5％，是2012年以後最低的數值。

視覺

本報告提供通訊業者為焦點，彙整到目前為止的設備投資趨勢，2022年第四季的負債，今後預測等相關資料。

目錄

• 摘要
• 通訊業者過去2年，在設備投資，頻帶，M&A花費了高額的費用
• 2022年第四季的電信業者負債總額是1兆1,400億美元，17％到明年還款到期
• 淨負債2022年減少了，不過，EBITDA比率與2015～19年相符
• 許多各個的通訊業者的債務等級限制支出
• 利益，負債，支出預測的影響
• 附錄

This brief report presents data aimed at shedding light on the following question: can telcos afford to pay for their future investment needs? The report considers debt, cash, and margin metrics, for the industry overall and for specific key players. It also speculates how 2022 trends may impact 2023 and beyond, in a rising interest rate climate. A number of large telcos have high debt, low margins, and/or weak top line growth, and may have to curtail spending in 2023-4 in order to cope with this reality.

VISUALS

Key findings include:

• Total telco debt in 4Q22 was $1.14 trillion, 17% due in next year

• Software capex as a % of revenues was 1.9% in 2022, up a bit from 1.8% in 2021.

• Spending on acquisitions amounted to 0.5% of revenues in 2022, the lowest figure since 2012.

• At the industry level, the ratio of net debt to EBITDA in 2022 was 1.9, a bit up from 2021 but down from 2020.

• A number of large telcos face short-term debt levels over 30% of total debt

• Average margins for the industry in 2022 disappointed: free cash flow margin for the telco industry in 2022 was 11.4%, down from 12.6% in 2021; EBITDA margin was 33.7% (2021: 34.0%), and EBIT margin was 14.4% (2021: 14.9%).

Companies mentioned:

Table of Contents

• Summary

• Telcos have spent big on capex, spectrum and M&A in last 2 years

• Total telco debt in 4Q22 was $1.14 trillion, 17% due in next year

• Net debt declined in 2022 but ratio to EBITDA in line with 2015-19

• Many individual telcos have debt levels which will constrain their spending

• Margins, debt, and implications for spending outlook

• Appendix

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Telco investments by type, 2011-22, as a % of revenues
• Figure 2: Telco sector total debt in US$B, and short-term debt as % total
• Figure 3: Components of telco sector total debt at year-end 2022 (US$B)*
• Figure 4: Telco industry net debt ($M) and net debt to EBITDA ratio, 2011-22
• Figure 5: Telcos with net debt to EBITDA ratios above 3 (YE2022)**