開發廢舊電動汽車電池的回收解決方案

插電式電動汽車 (PEV) 銷量預計將在 2022 年達到 1040 萬輛，並在 2030 年加速至 5700 萬輛，全球市場份額為 47%。 隨著PEV的銷售，對PEV電池的需求也將增加。 越來越多的 PEV 電池最終將達到其使用壽命，需要替代垃圾填埋處理，這違反了環境目標、法規和政策。 電池再生（回收）被認為是廢舊 PEV 電池的可行解決方案。 這是一項環境可持續的廣泛戰略，政府和行業可以通過減少對少數國家控制的材料開采和精煉的依賴來減少國際供應鍊和地緣政治風險，從而實現目標。

預計到 2030 年，北美小型電動汽車銷量將達到 660 萬輛，電動汽車再製造電池的可回收率達到 95% 至 98%，新電池被認為是將這些材料保持在閉環供應鏈中的戰略解決方案它們可以投入生產。 假設至少 10 年使用壽命，到 2031 年，美國將有近 667,000 個 PEV 電池（即 2021 年銷售的 PEV 數量）可再生。

在本報告中，我們分析了全球電動汽車和廢舊電池再生解決方案的發展趨勢、PEV市場前景（PEV銷量、PEV電池產量、可回收PEV電池的潛在數量）、潛在商業模式概述建立 PEV 電池回收市場、關鍵激勵措施和法規，以確保廢舊 PEV 電池的安全清除、排放、處理和運輸到回收設施。我們將收集和提供以下信息。

內容

前言

背景

推薦

PEV 銷量上升：需要電池

全球電動汽車銷量：過去 5 年顯著增長

電動汽車銷售推動全球電池需求

電池市場規模：它將如何影響美國電動汽車銷售？

美國和加拿大的電池需求：供應可能跟不上

美國電動汽車電池再製造市場增長前景

電動汽車電池再生過程：多重優勢

電動汽車電池再生材料的評估

複製成本的合理性

廢舊電動汽車電池的運輸

未來電池成本將決定與再製造電池的競爭

法規、政策和商業模式：對回收市場的影響

電動汽車生態系統的創新者：需要考慮閉環電池供應鏈

核心充電：電動汽車電池可能會出現問題

回收商可能會為廢舊電池付費

製造商可能承擔收集廢舊電池的費用

租賃電池的可能性

其他激勵措施和法規的必要性

Plug-in EV (PEV) sales, which reached 10.4 million in 2022, are projected to accelerate to 57 million vehicles by 2030, a global market share of 47%. Demand for PEV batteries will increase in parallel with PEV sales. An increasing number of PEV batteries will eventually reach the end of their useful life and require an alternative solution to being discarded into landfills, which violates environmental goals, policies, and regulations. Recycling is considered a viable solution for end-of-life PEV batteries. It is environmentally sustainable and it meets broad government and industry strategic goals of mitigating international supply chain and geo-political risks by decreasing reliance on material extraction and refinement dominated by a handful of countries.

North American light duty PEV sales are estimated to reach 6.6 million units by 2030 and PEV battery recycling is viewed as a strategic solution to keep these materials in a closed-loop supply chain in which 95% to 98% of key battery materials are recoverable and can be directed into new battery production. Assuming a minimum 10-year lifespan, nearly 667,000 PEV batteries—the number of PEVs sold in 2021—will be available for recycling in the US by 2031.

This Guidehouse Insights report presents forecasts for future PEV sales, PEV battery production, and the potential volume of PEV batteries available for recycling. It includes an overview of potential business models for establishing a PEV battery recycling market and identifies key incentives and regulations that could ensure the safe removal, discharge, handling, and transportation of end-of-life PEV batteries to recycling facilities. 

Table of Contents

Spark

Context

Recommendations

PEVs Sales Are On The Rise and They Need Batteries

Global EV Sales Have Grown Significantly in the Last Five Years

EV Sales Drive Global Battery Demand

What Does the Battery Market Size Mean for US EV Sales?

US and Canada Battery Demand Could Lag Supply

The EV Battery Recycling Market in the US Is Forecast to Grow

The EV Battery Recycling Process Has Multiple Benefits

Valuing Materials from EV Battery Recycling

Justifying Recycling Costs

Transporting Used EV Batteries

Future Battery Costs Will Determine Competition with Recycled Batteries

Regulations, Policies, and Business Models Affect the Recycling Market

EV Ecosystem Innovators Must Consider the Closed-Loop Battery Supply

Chain

Core Charges Could Be Problematic for EV Batteries

Recyclers Could Pay for End-of-Life Batteries

Manufacturers Could Pay for Collecting End-of-Life Batteries

Batteries Could Be Leased

Other Incentives and Regulations Are Needed

List of Tables

Potential Recyclable Commodity Value by Type of Battery Composition

List of Figures

• EV Sales, Percentage of Vehicles Sales, and Number of EV Batteries Available for Recycling, Worldwide, 2022-2031
• Global BEV and PHEV Sales by Region, Worldwide, 2022-2031

GWh of Battery Production in 2022 and Battery Capacity Needed for 2030 Battery Demand

• EV Sales, Percentage of Vehicles Sales, and Number of EV Batteries Available for Recycling, US, 2022-2031

Cathode Supply Chain

US EV Battery Demand for Stated Policies, Sustainable Development, and Average Scenarios with a Range of EV Batteries Available for Recycling: Low (25%), Base (50%), and High (75%)

EV Recycled Batteries as a Percentage of 2025 and 2030 Base and High Production Levels for High (75%), Base (50%), and Low (25%) EV Battery Recycling Scenarios

Lifecycle of an EV Battery: Refurbishing and Re-Introduction into the Manufacturing Process

Hydrometallurgy Extraction and Cathode Production Process

Hydro-to-Cathode Extraction and Production Process

Recycling Facilities and State Regulatory Environments

IRA Stipulations for Raw Mineral Battery Composition Requirements from the US or Countries with an FT