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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1511333
2030 年合規碳權市場預測:按類型、應用、最終用戶和地區進行的全球分析Compliance Carbon Credit Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Type (Certified Emission Reductions, Emission Reduction Units, Removal Units and Other Types), Application, End User and By Geography |
根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,2024 年全球合規碳權市場規模將達到 1,172 億美元,預計將以 15.6% 的複合年成長率成長,到 2030 年將達到 2,797 億美元。
碳權額是一種可交易的許可證,代表排放一噸二氧化碳或等量二氧化碳的權利。它是旨在減少溫室氣體排放的碳排放交易計劃的關鍵組成部分。隨著產業和政府尋求具有成本效益的方法來實現排放目標,碳權市場顯著成長。這一成長反映出世界對氣候變遷的認知不斷增強,並努力透過基於市場的機制減輕其影響。
根據國際排放貿易協會(IETA)的數據,制定碳定價舉措的國家和地區數量大幅增加。 2016年有41個國家,2022年將增加到85個國家。此外,越來越多的國家和地區正在積極考慮引入自己的碳定價機制。
增加政府法規和減碳目標
世界各國政府正在實施更嚴格的排放法規,並制定雄心勃勃的碳減排目標,以應對氣候變遷。隨著公司尋求具有成本效益的方法來滿足強制排放限制,這推動了對合規排碳權的需求。各地區碳定價機制與排放交易體系的範圍不斷擴大,迫使更多企業參與碳市場,刺激市場成長。隨著法規收緊,企業正在轉向碳權額來抵消內部無法輕易減少的排放。
缺乏標準化和透明度
合規碳權市場因缺乏測量、報告和檢驗減排放的標準化方法而面臨挑戰。不同司法管轄區的碳權規則和品質標準各不相同,因此很難確保一致性和可比性。碳計量和抵消計劃的複雜性也導致了透明度問題,包括對排放的真正額外性和持久性的擔憂。缺乏標準化和透明度可能會削弱市場信心,並阻礙碳權作為合規工具的廣泛採用。
技術進步
區塊鏈和分散式帳本技術可以提高碳權額的透明度、可追溯性和檢驗。先進的監測和資料分析工具使您能夠更準確地衡量減排放。人工智慧和機器學習可以最佳化碳權額交易和風險管理。這些技術進步有可能提高市場效率,降低交易成本,增強對碳權完整性的信心,並擴大市場參與和流動性。
碳洩漏風險
碳洩漏對合規碳權市場的有效性構成威脅。一個司法管轄區更嚴格的排放法規可能會導致公司將碳集中業務轉移到監管較少的地區,從而增加全球整體排放。這可能會破壞碳減排努力的環境完整性並扭曲競爭。
COVID-19 大流行最初擾亂了碳市場,由於經濟活動和排放減少,導致信貸價格暴跌。然而,隨著經濟復甦,人們重新關注氣候行動,並對碳權的需求增加。這次疫情凸顯了韌性和永續性的重要性,並可能加速合規碳市場的長期成長,作為綠色復甦努力的一部分。
預計核證減排放(CER)部分將在預測期內成為最大的部分
由於其國際認可度和清潔發展機制(CDM)下的既定方法,核證減排放(CER)部分可能會主導合規排碳權市場。 CER 提供了一種標準化且檢驗的排放方法,並被多個司法管轄區所接受。其跨行業和地區的廣泛適用性使其對信貸買家和賣家都有吸引力。隨著越來越多的國家將國際碳權納入其合規機制,對高品質核證減排量的需求預計將增加,其市場地位將得到鞏固。
工業加工產業預計在預測期內複合年成長率最高
由於能源密集型產業脫碳壓力越來越大,工業流程產業可望在合規碳權市場中快速成長。由於這些行業面臨更嚴格的排放法規,它們正在轉向碳權來排放難以減少的排放。工業流程中的技術創新也為排放和信用創造創造了新的機會。該行業大規模排放的潛力,加上監管興趣的增加,正在推動工業碳權計劃的投資,從而促成最高的預期複合年成長率。
在其完善的歐盟排放權交易體系(EU ETS)和雄心勃勃的氣候目標的推動下,歐洲預計將保持其在合規碳權市場的主導地位。該地區嚴格的法律規範涵蓋多個行業,創造了對碳權的持續需求。歐洲在氣候政策方面的領導地位及其在 2050 年實現淨零排放的承諾進一步鞏固了其市場地位。國際信貸一體化和歐洲各國碳定價機制的擴展正在為該地區的巨大市場佔有率和持續成長做出貢獻。
由於快速的工業化、不斷提高的環保意識以及擴大採用排放權交易系統,亞太地區預計將在合規碳權市場中經歷最高的複合年成長率。中國、韓國和日本等國家正在擴大其碳市場,為信用創造和交易創造新的機會。該地區經濟的快速成長和雄心勃勃的氣候變遷措施正在推動對具有成本效益的排放解決方案的需求。隨著越來越多的亞洲國家引入碳定價機制,該地區有望加速合規排碳權領域的成長。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Compliance Carbon Credit Market is accounted for $117.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $279.7 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 15.6% during the forecast period. Carbon credits are tradable permits representing the right to emit one metric ton of carbon dioxide or its equivalent. They are a key component of carbon trading schemes aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The market for carbon credits has grown significantly as industries and governments seek cost-effective ways to meet emission reduction targets. This growth reflects increasing global awareness of climate change and efforts to mitigate its effects through market-based mechanisms.
According to the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA), the number of countries and regions with carbon pricing initiatives has grown significantly. In 2016, there were 41, and by 2022, that number had risen to 85. Additionally, more countries and regions are actively considering implementing their own carbon pricing mechanisms.
Increasing government regulations and carbon reduction targets
Governments worldwide are implementing stricter emissions regulations and setting ambitious carbon reduction targets to combat climate change. This is driving demand for compliance carbon credits as companies seek cost-effective ways to meet their mandated emissions limits. The expanding scope of carbon pricing mechanisms and emissions trading systems across regions is compelling more industries to participate in carbon markets, fueling market growth. As regulations tighten, companies are increasingly turning to carbon credits to offset emissions they cannot easily reduce internally.
Lack of standardization and transparency
The compliance carbon credit market faces challenges due to a lack of standardized methodologies for measuring, reporting, and verifying emissions reductions. Different jurisdictions have varying rules and quality standards for carbon credits, making it difficult to ensure consistency and comparability. The complex nature of carbon accounting and offset projects also leads to transparency issues, with concerns about the true additionality and permanence of emissions reductions. This lack of standardization and transparency can undermine market confidence and hinder broader adoption of carbon credits as a compliance tool.
Technological advancements
Blockchain and distributed ledger technologies can improve transparency, traceability, and verification of carbon credits. Advanced monitoring and data analytics tools enable more accurate measurement of emissions reductions. Artificial intelligence and machine learning can optimize carbon credit trading and risk management. These technological advancements have the potential to increase market efficiency, reduce transaction costs, and build greater trust in the integrity of carbon credits, thereby expanding market participation and liquidity.
Risk of carbon leakage
Carbon leakage poses a threat to the effectiveness of compliance carbon credit markets. There is a risk that stringent emissions regulations in one jurisdiction may lead companies to relocate their carbon-intensive operations to regions with less strict policies, potentially increasing overall global emissions. This can undermine the environmental integrity of carbon reduction efforts and distort competition.
The COVID-19 pandemic initially disrupted carbon markets, causing a sharp drop in credit prices due to reduced economic activity and emissions. However, as economies recovered, there was renewed focus on climate action, leading to increased demand for carbon credits. The pandemic highlighted the importance of resilience and sustainability, potentially accelerating long-term growth in compliance carbon markets as part of green recovery efforts.
The certified emission reductions (CERs) segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The certified emission reductions (CERs) segment is likely to dominate the compliance carbon credit market due to their international recognition and established methodologies under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). CERs offer a standardized, verified approach to emissions reductions that is accepted in multiple jurisdictions. Their wide applicability across sectors and geographies makes them attractive to both credit buyers and sellers. As more countries integrate international carbon credits into their compliance mechanisms, the demand for high-quality CERs is expected to grow, solidifying their position in the market.
The industrial processes segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The industrial processes segment is poised for rapid growth in the compliance carbon credit market due to increasing pressure on energy-intensive industries to decarbonize. As these sectors face stricter emissions regulations, they are turning to carbon credits to offset hard-to-abate emissions. Technological innovations in industrial processes are also creating new opportunities for emissions reduction and credit generation. The potential for large-scale emissions reductions in this sector, coupled with growing regulatory focus, is driving investment in industrial carbon credit projects, leading to the highest projected CAGR.
Europe is set to maintain its dominance in the compliance carbon credit market, driven by its well-established EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and ambitious climate targets. The region's stringent regulatory framework, covering multiple sectors, creates consistent demand for carbon credits. Europe's leadership in climate policy and commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 further reinforce its market position. The integration of international credits and the expansion of carbon pricing mechanisms across European countries contribute to the region's large market share and continued growth.
Asia Pacific is expected to experience the highest CAGR in the compliance carbon credit market, fueled by rapid industrialization, growing environmental awareness, and increasing adoption of emissions trading systems. Countries like China, South Korea, and Japan are expanding their carbon markets, creating new opportunities for credit generation and trading. The region's fast-growing economies and ambitious climate commitments are driving demand for cost-effective emissions reduction solutions. As more Asian countries implement carbon pricing mechanisms, the region is poised for accelerated growth in the compliance carbon credit sector.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Compliance Carbon Credit market include 3 Degrees, AltaGas, Bluesource LLC, Carbon Care Asia Limited, Carbon Credit Capital, Carbonbetter, Clearsky Climate Solutions, Climate Impact Partners, Climate Trade, Climatepartner GmbH, Climeco LLC, Climetrek Ltd., Cool Effect, Inc., Degrees Group Inc., EcoAct, EKI Energy Services Ltd., Finite Carbon and Forest Carbon.
In November 2023, Bluesource Sustainable Forest Company submitted a revised Annual Operating Plan to reduce logging in favor of carbon credits within New Hampshire's conservation easement. This move is part of their participation in California's Air Resource Board Compliance Offset Program.
In January 2023, ClimeCo announced the acquisition of 3GreenTree Ecosystem Service Ltd. to enhance their sustainable project portfolio.