Webscale 網路營運商2024年第二季市場回顧：資本支出年增 51%，自2018年第二季以來大幅成長 - 對產生 AI 泡沫影響前景的擔憂

本報告回顧了2011年以來 Webscale 網路營運商（WNO/Webscale）的成長和發展。目標公司為21家。

最近12個月（2023年第三季至2024年第二季）營收為2.47兆美元（年成長8.2%），研發費用為3,010億美元（年成長5.4%），設備投資達2,260億美元（成長15.4%）。截至2024年6月，該公司帳上現金及短期投資為6,120億美元（年減8.5%），負債總額為5,270億美元（年減3.6%）。截至2024年6月，Webscaler的淨PP&E帳面價值為7,870億美元，年增19.8%。截至2024年第二季末，Webscaler 擁有約 4,182,000 名員工，較截至2023年 6月的4,085,000 名略有增加。

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主要亮點：

• 營收：2024年第二季單期營收為6,144億美元，年增8.4%，預估年營收為24,660億美元。營收成長由四家主要公司引領：Alphabet、Amazon、Meta（FB）和Microsoft。這些公司已連續四個季實現兩位數的營收成長，明顯優於同業。 Meta 在2024年第二季的年化期間成長最快，從2022年第三季到2023年第二季成長了24.3%，其次是Microsoft（成長15.7%）和Alphabet（成長13.4%）、Amazon（成長12.3%）。Amazon對2024年第二季的成長影響最大，其營收較2023年第二季增加了 136億美元，使2024年第二季達到 1,480億美元，以美元計算年增 10.1%。成長受到最大限制的是中國電子商務公司JD.com，該公司2024年第二季的營收年減 8億美元（-2.0%），至 402億美元。
• 資本支出：2023年網路規模資本支出下降5%，但2024年前兩季表現強勁，第一季為25%，第二季成長為51%。由此，2024年第二季資本支出年化達2,264億美元，創歷史新高，較去年同期成長15.4%。網路擴展者繼續長期努力購買大規模土地並開發全新的資料中心園區。然而，這種激增似乎主要是由技術支出推動的，特別是為已投入運作的資料中心設施購買伺服器（GPU 和 CPU）。第二季（2022年4月至6月）資本支出年化率為44%，但最近兩個季，網路/IT和軟體資本支出佔總資本支出的54%。2024年第二季資本支出最高的公司是Amazon（176億美元），其次是Microsoft（139億美元）、Alphabet（132億美元）和 Meta（FB）（82億美元）。這四家公司約佔單季支出的80%。這些因素都是NVIDIA股價不可持續上漲的背後原因。
• 獲利能力：Webscale2024年第二季的自由現金流利潤率平均為18.6%，2023年第二季的年化率為16.3%，遠高於第22 季的14.4%。平均淨利率也很強勁，整個市場的年化利潤率從2023年第二季的15.2%和2022年第二季的16.3%成長到2024年第二季的18.8%。 Meta（FB）和Microsoft在這兩個類別的利潤率最高。儘管規模龐大，Amazon卻永遠拖累了利潤率。Alibaba和 Alphabet 的自由現金流顯著低於2023年第二季，對市場平均值產生負面影響。
• 員工人數：截至2024年 6月，Webscale 市場的員工人數為 418萬人，較截至2023年 6月的408萬人略有增加。考慮到一些網路擴展商的規模及其勞動力變化的速度，尤其是對於電子商務專家來說，這種差異可以忽略不計。自2021年下半年以來，員工人數穩定在410萬至420萬左右。一些最大的網路縮放器大力投資人工智慧和 GenAI，他們的明確目標之一是提高內部成本效率。這不可避免地意味著員工數量的減少。電子商務領域機器人和自動駕駛汽車在物流鏈中的使用也有所增加。未來網路規模的就業不太可能大幅增加。

調查範圍

WNO 前 8 家公司

其他 WNO

目錄

第1章 報告要點

第2章 展望

第3章 分析

第4章 主要統計

第5章 公司詳細資料

第6章 8大WNO

第7章 企業基準測試

第8章 區域細分

第9章 原始資料

第10章 匯率

第11章 關於本公司

This report reviews the growth and development of the webscale network operator (WNO, or webscale) market since 2011. It covers 21 companies. In the most recent a12 months (3Q23-2Q24), webscalers represented $2.47 trillion (T) in revenues (+8.2% YoY), $301 billion (B) in R&D spending (+5.4% YoY), and $226B in capex (+15.4% YoY). They had $612B of cash and short-term investments (-8.5% YoY) on the books as of June 2024, and $527B in total debt (-3.6% YoY). The value of webscalers' net plant, property & equipment (net PP&E) on the books as of June 2024 was $787B, up 19.8% YoY. Webscalers employed approximately 4.182 million (M) people at the end of 2Q24, up a bit from the June 2023 total of 4.085M.

VISUALS

Below are key highlights from the report:

• Revenues: Single quarter revenues in 2Q24 were $614.4 billion (B), up 8.4% YoY. That pushed annualized revenues to $2.466 trillion. Topline growth has been driven by the big 4: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta (FB) and Microsoft. For four straight quarters, all of these companies have recorded double digit revenue growth, well above the rest of the pack. For the 2Q24 annualized period, the fastest growth came from Meta, up 24.3% versus 3Q22-2Q23, followed by Microsoft (+15.7%), Alphabet (13.4%), and Amazon (12.3%). The biggest dollar impact on growth in 2Q24 came from Amazon, as its revenues grew $13.6 billion from 2Q23 to end 2Q24 at $148B, up 10.1% YoY. The biggest curb on growth was Chinese ecommerce player JD.com, which recorded 2Q24 revenues of $40.2B, down $0.8B YoY (-2.0%).
• Capex: After declining 5% in 2023, webscale capex has been on a tear for the first two quarters of 2024, growing 25% and 51% in 1Q24 and 2Q24 respectively. That pushed 2Q24 annualized capex to $226.4 billion in 2Q24, an all-time high and up 15.4% YoY. Webscalers continue with big land purchases and long-term efforts to develop all-new data center campuses. However, the surge appears to be driven largely by technology spending, in particular purchases of servers (GPU and CPU) for data center facilities already up and running. From 44% of annualized capex in 2Q22, Network/IT and software capex was 54% of total capex for the last two quarters. The biggest capex outlays in 2Q24 came from Amazon ($17.6B), Microsoft ($13.9B), Alphabet ($13.2B), and Meta (FB) ($8.2B). These four account for about 80% of single quarter spending. They are the reason behind the unsustainable surge in the price of NVIDIA stock.
• Profitability: Webscale free cash flow margins averaged out to 18.6% for the 2Q24 annualized period, much higher than the 16.3% and 14.4% recorded in the annualized 2Q23 and 2Q22 timeframes. Average net profit margins are also strong, totaling 18.8% for the overall market in 2Q24 annualized, from 15.2% in 2Q23 and 16.3% in 2Q22. Meta (FB) and Microsoft have the highest overall margins across these two categories. Amazon is a perpetual drag on margins despite its size. Alibaba and Alphabet both reported FCF figures substantially lower than 2Q23, impacting the market average negatively.
• Employees: Headcount in the webscale market totaled to 4.18 million in June 2024, slightly up from 4.08 million in June 2023. This difference is negligible, considering the size of some of the webscalers and how quickly the ecommerce specialists in particular can change workforce levels. Headcount has been approximately 4.1 to 4.2 million steadily since late 2021. Some of the biggest webscalers are investing heavily in AI and GenAI, with one clear goal being to improve their internal cost efficiencies. This inevitably will mean fewer employees. Even within the ecommerce space, there is a rising use of robots and autonomous vehicles in the logistics chain. Webscale employment is unlikely to rise much from here, if at all.
• Regional trends: The Asia-Pacific region has been a drag on the market for several quarters. Webscale revenues in the Americas, Europe, and MEA have been growing in the low double digit range for a few quarters, but AP has been weak: 2Q24 revenue growth was 3% YoY, after a 2% increase in 1Q24. Weak Asian currencies and a very competitive 'big tech' market in China account for the gap. One factor is TikTok's owner, ByteDance: this private company has exploded in the last 3 years, impacting negatively the measured growth of the publicly traded Chinese webscalers that we do track (Alibaba, Baidu, JD, and Tencent). The ByteDance surge also ate into the 2022-23 growth of some western webscalers, notably Meta (FB), but that effect has ebbed.

Coverage

Top 8 WNOs

Other WNOs

Table of Contents

1. Report highlights

2. Outlook

3. Analysis

4. Key Stats

5. Company Drilldown

6. Top 8 WNOs

7. Company Benchmarking

8. Regional Breakouts

9. Raw Data

10. Exchange Rates

11. About

Figures & Charts

• 1. Key Metrics: Growth rates, Annualized 2Q24/2Q23 vs. 2019-23
• 2. WNO Revenues: Single-quarter & annualized (US$M)
• 3. Top 8 WNOs: YoY revenue growth in 2Q24
• 4. Annualized profitability: WNOs
• 5. Free cash flow per employee, 2Q24 annualized (US$)
• 6. FCF Margins vs. Net Margins, 2Q24 annualized
• 7. Advertising revenues as % total (FY2023)
• 8. Annualized capex and R&D spending: WNOs (% revenues)
• 9. WNO capex by type, Annualized: 2Q15-2Q24 (US$M)
• 10. Network & IT capex as share of revenues, 2Q24 annualized
• 11. R&D expenses as % revenues, Top 8 WNOs (2Q24 annualized)
• 12. Acquisition spending vs. capex spending, annualized (US$M)
• 13. Net PP&E per employee (US$' 000) - 2Q24
• 14. Ranking the Webscale Network Operators: Revenues; R&D; Capex; Network & IT capex - 2023 & 2Q24 (US$B)
• 15. Annualized spending share for key webscalers since 2011 Capex: Network, IT and software
• 16. Share of webscale spending by company, 2Q24 and 2Q23 annualized (Capex: Network, IT and software)
• 17. Energy consumption vs. Net PP&E for key webscalers in 2023
• 18. USA: Webscale capex total ($M) and % of global market, 2011-23
• 19. Webscale vs. Telco Market: Annualized Capex (US$B)
• 20. Webscale vs. Telco Market: Annualized capital intensity
• 21. Revenues: annual, single-quarter, and annualized (US$M)
• 22. Profitability (Net Profit; Cash from operations; Free cash flow): annual, single-quarter, and annualized (US$M)
• 23. Spending (R&D; M&A; Capex; Network & IT capex; Lease): annual, single-quarter, and annualized (US$M)
• 24. Cash & Short-term Investments: annual and single-quarter (US$M)
• 25. Debt (Total debt; Net debt): annual and single-quarter (US$M)
• 26. Property, Plant & Equipment: annual and single-quarter (US$M)
• 27. Key Ratios: Net margin; R&D/revenues; Capex/revenues; Network & IT capex/revenues; Free cash flow/revenues; Lease costs/revenues - annual and annualized (%)
• 28. Total employees
• 29. Revenue per employee, annualized (US$K)
• 30. FCF per employee, annualized (US$K)
• 31. Net PP&E per employee, annualized (US$K)
• 32. Revenues & Spending (US$M)
• 33. Webscale Business Mix by Revenues (FY2023) - MTN Consulting estimates
• 34. Top 10 recent acquisitions & investments
• 35. Data center footprint
• 36. Revenues (US$M) & YoY revenue growth (%), single-quarter: by company
• 37. Revenues, annualized (US$M): by company
• 38. Annualized profitability margins: by company
• 39. Annualized capex and capital intensity: by company
• 40. Annualized capex and R&D spending as % of revenues: by company
• 41. Share of WNO network & IT capex, Annualized: by company
• 42. Total employees: by company
• 43. Annualized per-employee metrics (US$000s): by company
• 44. Net debt (debt minus cash & stock) (US$M): by company
• 45. Top 10 webscale employers in 2Q24: Global market
• 46. Headcount changes in 2Q24 (YoY %): Global market
• 47. Net PP&E: USA vs. RoW (by company)
• 48. Net PP&E: total in $M and % global webscale market (by company)
• 49. Energy consumption, MWh and % webscale total (by company)
• 50. Share of webscale energy consumption, net PP&E, and capex (by company)
• 51. Energy intensity relative to webscale average and select data center-focused CNNOs (by company)
• 52. Energy intensity in webscale sector, 2023: MWh consumed per $M in revenue
• 53. Capex/revenues (annualized): Company vs. Webscale average
• 54. Revenue per employee (US$000s) (annualized): Company vs. Webscale average
• 55. 2017 vs. 2023: company benchmark by KPI (Revenues, R&D, Net profit, Cash from operations, Capex, Free cash flow, Cash & short-term investments, Net PP&E, Total debt)
• 56. 2017 vs. 2023: company benchmark by key ratio (Capex/revenues; R&D/revenues; Net margin; FCF margin)
• 57. Top 8 WNO's share vs. Rest of the market: by KPI (Revenues, R&D, Net profit, Cash from operations, Capex, Free cash flow, Cash & short-term investments, Net PP&E, Total debt)
• 58. Top 8 WNOs benchmarking by Key ratio: Capex/revenues; R&D/revenues; Net margin; FCF margin)
• 59. Total WNO Market Revenues, by region: Latest CY; Latest Quarter; Annual trend (2011-23); Single quarter (2Q15-2Q24 )
• 60. WNO Market: Revenues, single-quarter (YoY % change)
• 61. Regional revenues by operator: Latest CY; Latest Quarter; Annual trend (2011-23); Single quarter (2Q15-2Q24)
• 62. Top 10 operators by region: Latest CY; Latest Quarter