市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1577238
核能退役市場至2030年的預測:按核子反應爐類型、服務類型、容量、應用和地區的全球分析Nuclear Decommissioning Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Reactor Type, Service Type, Capacity, Application and By Geography |
根據Stratistics MRC預測,2024年全球核能退役市場規模將達72億美元,預計2030年將達到108億美元,預測期內年複合成長率為6.9%。
核能發電廠退役包括清除放射性物質、拆除建築物並進行修復,以避免對公眾健康和環境造成風險。由於放射性物質很危險,這個複雜且受控制的過程可能需要數十年的時間。主要有三種策略:掩埋、延遲拆除和快速拆除。為了確保安全和合規性,由於全球老化核能發電廠數量不斷增加,核能發電廠退役正成為關鍵的重點領域。這需要專業知識、最尖端科技和大量資金。
老化的核能設施
隨著核子反應爐接近其使用壽命,安全風險會增加,經濟效益會下降,因此必須除役以確保環境完整性和公共。此外,政府和監管機構製定更嚴格的安全關閉標準,從而產生了對專業退役服務來管理複雜合規要求的需求,這推動市場成長。
放射性廢棄物處置管理
在退役作業期間管理和儲存放射性材料是一項挑戰,需要仔細規劃並嚴格遵守監管標準。這種複雜性會增加成本並導致計劃延誤。此外,由於審查和公眾宣傳,獲得廢棄物處置場的監管批准和公眾核准可能是一個漫長的過程,這可能會影響市場動態,這可能會延遲除役時間表。
全球轉向再生能源
日益增加的政治壓力和安全擔憂加速從核能發電向風能和太陽能等再生能源的轉變。這項變革推動過時核能發電廠的除役,這些核電廠在經濟上不再可行且無法實現永續性目標。這種變化在一些地區尤其明顯,許多國家逐漸放棄核能並轉向更環保的選擇。
淨化成本高
核能退役最重要的方面之一是去污,這是昂貴的。確切的成本將取決於設施的規模和複雜性,但可能從數億美元到數十億美元不等。這種財務負擔可能會阻礙投資,特別是對於預算有限的小型、舊設施。技術限制和監管合規等不可預見的問題可能會導致延誤和預算超支,進一步導致財務資源緊張並限制市場擴張。
COVID-19 大流行造成勞動力短缺,並因衛生準則限制現場工作人員,對核能退役市場產生了重大影響。這些挑戰導致計劃進度延誤和供應鏈中斷,阻礙了除役活動的進展。因此,許多除役計劃面臨延長的完成期限,使疫情期間和之後核能除役市場的整體狀況變得複雜。
壓水式反應爐(PWR)產業預計將在預測期內成為最大的產業
壓水式反應爐(PWR)預計在預測期內成長最快,因為它們具有獨立的一迴路和二迴路、較低的污染機會以及易於操作和清潔。因此,可以縮短除役時間表並降低成本。隨著壓水堆的老化以及許多壓水堆的運作超出其計劃壽命,對除役服務的需求持續成長,推動了市場擴張。
服務類型細分市場預計在預測期內年複合成長率最高
預計服務類型細分市場在預測期內將呈現最高的年複合成長率。這與嚴格的法規和公共問題相吻合,刺激了對專業服務的需求。當無法快速拆除時,通常會採用安全圍護或掩埋,但這些方法會減慢除役,增加成本並使監管合規變得複雜。
由於核能發電廠老化導致需要除役服務的案例數量不斷增加,預計北美地區將在預測期內佔據最大的市場佔有率,尤其是在美國。政府法規要求安全且對環境負責的退役,因此需要以合規為重點的計劃。隨著越來越多的發電廠關閉以及北美向再生能源過渡,對除役服務的需求日益增加。
隨著核子反應爐老化,亞太地區預計將在預測期內呈現最高成長率,其中韓國和日本對除役服務的需求將會增加。特別是在日本,2011年福島災難加劇了安全問題,加強了立法併計劃逐步淘汰老化的核子反應爐。此外,日本、韓國和台灣政府也同樣強烈強調安全除役的必要性,並要求業者遵循除役指南。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Nuclear Decommissioning Market is accounted for $7.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $10.8 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 6.9% during the forecast period. Nuclear decommissioning, which involves removing radioactive materials, dismantling buildings, and restoring to avoid risks to the public's health and the environment, is the safe retirement of nuclear plants after their operating life. Because radioactive materials are dangerous, this intricate and controlled procedure can take decades. Entombment, delayed disassembly, and quick dismantling are the three primary strategies. In order to ensure safety and regulatory compliance, nuclear decommissioning is becoming a crucial emphasis area because to the growing number of aged nuclear sites globally. This requires specialist knowledge, cutting-edge technology, and substantial financial resources.
Aging nuclear facilities
As nuclear reactors near the end of their operating lives, safety hazards rise and their economic viability declines, decommissioning is therefore necessary to guarantee both environmental preservation and public safety. Moreover stricter criteria for safe closure are being imposed by governments and regulatory agencies, which is creating a demand for specialized decommissioning services to manage intricate compliance requirements which boosts the markets growth.
Managing radioactive waste disposal
During decommissioning, managing and storing radioactive materials is a challenging task that necessitates careful planning and strict adherence to regulatory norms. This intricacy might raise expenses and cause project delays. Furthermore, obtaining regulatory clearance and public acceptance for waste disposal sites can be a drawn-out procedure that is subject to examination and public outreach, which can affect market dynamics and delay the decommissioning schedule.
Global shift towards renewable energy sources
Growing political pressure combined with safety concerns is hastening the transition away from nuclear power and toward renewable energy sources like wind and solar power. The decommissioning of outdated nuclear sites, which are no longer financially feasible or consistent with sustainability objectives, is being driven by this change. This change is especially noticeable in few areas, where many nations are gradually moving away from nuclear energy and toward greener options.
High decontamination costs
One of the most important aspects of nuclear decommissioning is decontamination, which is expensive. The magnitude and complexity of the facility will determine the exact cost, which can range from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars. Investment may be discouraged by this financial burden, particularly in smaller, older institutions with tighter budgets. Unexpected issues like technology constraints or regulatory compliance can cause delays and budget overruns, further taxing financial resources and limiting market expansion.
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted the nuclear decommissioning market by causing labor shortages and restricting on-site personnel due to health guidelines. These challenges led to delays in project timelines and disruptions in supply chains, hindering the progress of decommissioning activities. As a result, many decommissioning projects faced extended completion deadlines, complicating the overall landscape of the nuclear decommissioning market during and after the pandemic.
The pressurized water reactor (PWR) segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The pressurized water reactor (PWR) is expected to be the largest during the forecast period because their primary and secondary loops are independent, PWRs reduce the possibility of contamination and are simpler to run and clean. This results in shortened decommissioning schedules and reduced expenses. Decommissioning services are becoming more and more necessary as PWRs age and many of them operate beyond their planned lifespan, which is propelling market expansion.
The service type segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The service type segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period because it can be completed quickly and within regulatory control, immediate dismantling is a preferred service type that accelerates the availability of land. This is in line with strict regulations and worries about public safety, which fuels the need for specialized services. When quick dismantling isn't possible, safe enclosure and entombments are frequently employed; however, these methods might result in protracted decommissioning times, which raise costs and complicate regulatory compliance.
North America is expected to have the largest market share over the projection period owing to the increasing number of decommissioning services are being required due to North America's aging nuclear fleet, especially in the United States. Compliance-focused projects are necessary because government rules necessitate safe and environmentally responsible decommissioning. The need for decommissioning services is increasing as more plants close and North America shifts to renewable energy sources.
Asia Pacific is anticipated to witness the highest rate of growth during the forecast period owing to their aging nuclear power reactors, South Korea and Japan are seeing an increase in demand for decommissioning services. Safety concerns were raised by the Fukushima accident in 2011, which resulted in tighter laws and the scheduled phase-out of outdated reactors, particularly in Japan. Additionally the governments of these nations-Japan, South Korea, Taiwan-have likewise placed a strong emphasis on the necessity of safe decommissioning and mandated that operators follow decommissioning guidelines.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Nuclear Decommissioning Market include AECOM, Babcock International Group, Bechtel Corporation, Beyond Nuclear , BWX Technologies, Inc., GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, Jacobs, James Fisher and Sons plc, Magnox Ltd., Manafort Brothers, Inc., Northstar Group Services Inc., NUVIA , Orano SA, Studsvik AB and Westinghouse Electric Corporation.
In September 2024, GE Hitachi signed four MoUs focusing on UK SMR plans. The UK aims to grow nuclear energy capacity to 24 GW by 2050, with a mix of traditional large-scale power plants and small modular reactors (SMRs).
In April 2024, BWX Technologies, Inc. announced an investment to expand its Cambridge manufacturing plant. Already one of the largest nuclear commercial manufacturing facilities in North America.