市場調查報告書
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1426509
全球LED照明市場分析(2024年)2024 Global LED Lighting Market Analysis |
受多種因素影響,2023年照明市場需求並未如預期恢復。 2023年LED照明市場規模再次下修至585億美元(較上年下降5%)。 到2024年,大約57.88億隻LED燈具和照明燈具將達到其使用壽命並逐步淘汰。 預計將扭轉LED照明市場的下滑趨勢,並將市場規模增加至609億美元(年增4%)。
照明製造商正在修改其積極的擴張計劃,以應對該行業當前的挑戰,從而降低了對植物工廠領域的投資興趣。 這種保守的態度肯定會比預期更慢地減緩園藝LED照明的採用進程。 同時,隨著中國製造商開始進入中上游園藝照明供應鏈,作為照明供應的關鍵障礙的光學專業知識將變得更加普遍。 這加劇了產業鏈內的競爭,加速了降價。 然而,終端市場園藝照明產品的價格和需求並不像通用照明那麼靈活,很難透過降價來刺激需求的大幅成長。 較低的價格也暫時降低了該行業的預期市場價值。
2023 年營收排名前五的照明製造商是 Signify、Acuity Brands、Panasonic、LEDVANCE(被 MLS Lighting 收購)和 Zumtobel。 2023年照明需求持續疲軟,20家主要企業總營收下降4.5%。 由於出口比平常疲軟,中國製造商全年都將重點放在國內市場。 智慧調光、調色和提高發光效率是許多西方公司在其新產品中強調的關鍵功能。 隨著 "居家照明無吸頂燈" 的概念越來越深入人心,企業開始專注於開發高品質的筒燈、射燈和條燈。
相對下游終端廠商來說,2023年照明LED市場價格壓力將加大,2021年產業回歸時將釋放額外產能。 2023年終端市場需求並未達到預期的復甦,反而出現萎縮,加劇了LED照明領域的供需失衡。 TrendForce預測,2023年通用、建築及農業照明的LED市場規模將下滑至2023年的42.36億美元,較上年下滑17%。
本報告分析了全球LED照明市場,包括LED照明市場整體市場規模的趨勢和預測,按產品、功率和地區劃分的詳細趨勢,以及園藝和農業LED照明的市場趨勢。我們正在調查主要廠商排名、績效及策略、照明用LED封裝市場趨勢等。
According to TrendForce's latest market research report "TrendForce 2024 Global LED Lighting Market Analysis-1H24", the lighting market demand in 2023 did not experience the expected rebound due to numerous factors. TrendForce once again revised down the LED lighting market value for 2023 to USD 58.5 billion (-5% YoY). In 2024, about 5.788 billion LED lamps and luminaires will reach their service life limits and be phased out, leading to a considerable demand for second-time replacements. This is expected to reverse the declining trend in the LED lighting market, and the market value will reach USD 60.9 billion (+4% YoY).
On the one hand, lighting manufacturers have modified their aggressive expansion plans in response to the immediate industry challenges, which have in fact decreased the desire to invest in the plant factory sector. This conservative posture will undoubtedly slow down the penetration process of LED horticultural lighting compared to expectations. On the other hand, as Chinese manufacturers begin to enter the mid-to-upstream supply chain of horticultural lighting, optical formula expertise, the key barrier to lighting supply, becomes more widespread. This intensifies competition within the industry chain and accelerates price reductions. However, the prices and demand for end-market horticultural lighting products are not as flexible as those for general lighting, making it difficult to stimulate significant demand growth through price reduction. The decrease in prices will also temporarily lower the expected market value for this industry.
Governments around the world are increasing policy support to promote the development of smart agriculture for local food security concerns. For example, Israel, Dubai, and North Africa continue to invest in vertical farms. In 2023, China imported 160 million tons of grain, an increase of 11.7% compared to the previous year. The Chinese government will increase agricultural investments in the next five years, which is beneficial to the agricultural lighting market. Additionally, the acceleration of urbanization, the decrease in per capita arable land, the aging population, and a sharp decline in the number of newborns are significant social issues that drive breakthroughs and development in agricultural technology. In 2024, the agricultural lighting industry will combine AI, sensors, drones, and other technologies to further promote the maturity of smart agriculture. By 2025, some regions will achieve large-scale smart agriculture monitoring and management. This will bring new opportunities to the agricultural lighting market, including horticultural lighting, livestock lighting, aquaculture lighting, fishery lighting, and microalgae growth. LED agricultural lighting technology can not only improve quality and growth speed but also prevent pests and diseases to increase yield. With an improved standard of living, humans seek higher levels of spiritual and material enjoyment, leading to a segmented market for agricultural lighting that offers diverse flavors, high-tech, and a transparent cultivation process.
According to the data compiled by TrendForce, the top five lighting manufacturers by revenue for 2023 were Signify, Acuity Brands, Panasonic, LEDVANCE (acquired by MLS Lighting), and Zumtobel. The lighting demand for 2023 remained sluggish, with a 4.5% slump in total revenue posted by the top twenty players. As export performance was weaker than previous years, Chinese manufacturers turned to focus on the domestic market throughout the year. Smart dimming and color tuning as well as light efficacy improvement are major features emphasized by most European and US businesses for new products. Following the increasingly popular concept of "household lighting without overhead lights", companies have been striving to develop high-quality downlights, spotlights, and strip lights.
In 2023, the entire lighting industry suffered lower profits due to energy crisis, frequent supply chain woes, and high inventory levels, all of which hampered the progress of inventory depletion.
Regarding industry chain development, integration will be a dominant trend for leading lighting firms in the next three years, with economies of scale being the main tool for profitability. Enterprises without core technology or prominent self-owned brands are expected to be taken over or be eliminated. The challenging global economic conditions and political uncertainty have prompted governments worldwide to cut infrastructure spending. As 2024 will be a crucial year for governments to validate climate efforts, they are likely to allocate higher budget for fixture replacement, giving rise to the LED lighting replacement market.
Compared to final product manufacturers in the downstream segment, those producing lighting LED market faced increased pressure on price reductions in 2023, with the production capacity added in 2021-where the industry returned-being released. The end-market demand for 2023 did not recover desirably and even shrank, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance within the lighting LED sector. TrendForce estimated the market value of LEDs for general, architectural, and agricultural lighting to slump to USD 4.236 billion in 2023 (-17% YoY).
Despite the slower decline in demand for 2023, the long-term unprofitability prompted some companies to withdraw from the market, including multinational players intending to reduce losses. In the long run, the 2835/3030 LED will be the top two components for lighting, while other products could barely threaten their dominance. As miniaturization has never been the focus of lighting LEDs, the 3014/4014 package structures will not become a mainstream. Regardless of the long-term competition between COB and discrete components, the two are clearly differentiated in most applications. A TrendForce survey revealed that the market demand for LED commercial lighting returned in 2023, and that for agricultural (horticultural) lighting also recovered starting in 3Q23. However, the overall economic downturn still led to an increase in the market shares of low-end lighting LEDs. TrendForce estimated the global lighting LED market size (General Lighting) will reach USD 3.686 billion in 2024.